The Arozarena-Jmart/Liberatore Trade

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  • #127154
    Avatarbccran
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    Torres just turned 20 and was completely overwhelmed when promoted from Johnson City to Peoria at the end of last season. He’s a long way away. Fletcher is 18 years old. Turns 19 at the end of the month.
    He’s even further away. I’m concerned about the next 3 or 4 years.
    Even if O’Neill and Carlson achieve their potential, we’re still an outfielder short.

    #127156
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    For this season? and next Fowler be get a starting spot and Bader is said to be the CF. That might give the other younger guys on the cusp of MLB ball to progress…O’Neill-Carlson-Lane-Williams and Edman (to transform as an OF). “Can anyone here play this game?”.

    I’d hate to see Hudson used as a chip to obtain another OFer. But the lack of power may make that necessary.

    #127161
    Avatarbccran
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    I don’t think it would take Hudson, and I wouldn’t trade him.
    Would look more toward one of Knizner or Herrera, Nunez perhaps, and one of Woodford/Rondon/Seijas. The new outfielder doesn’t have to be a many time all star like Goldy. Just a steady .280/25 HR/90 RBI type who plays decent defense.

    #127175
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    Torres just turned 20 and was completely overwhelmed when promoted from Johnson City to Peoria at the end of last season.

    A correction is necessary here as the sequence of events is wrong. Torres was tried in Peoria in May before playing in JC for the summer.

    #127176
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    FWIW, I don’t see the issue. Many free agent outfielders are on the market every year and sign short-term deals. The Cardinals did not add one this past winter because none were available. They did not want to go in that direction. Unless enough games are played this season to sort out the young outfielders they have, the situation will not change until partway through the 2021 season, it appears.

    #127194
    Avatarbccran
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    The point is, Torres is years away, if he is indeed a top prospect.

    2019 at Peoria – 66AB/.167/.240/.212/.452
    2019 at JC – 112AB/.286/.391/.527/.918

    Thanks for the correction, BW, but the Peoria numbers are telling whether they happened in May or toward the end of the season. As stated, he’s simply a youngster who is a long way away from being ready to take the field at Busch.

    #127197
    Avatarmudville
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    I still don’t understand why the Marlins wanted to let go of Austin Dean. He was having a very good spring for the Cardinals this year, and he’s always had good minor league stats.

    #127198
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran, I get your point about Torres not being close to St. Louis and I agree with it. However, that is where our agreement ends. You rely very heavily on prior stats (too much, IMO) to assess still-developing prospects, but be especially careful in this case. The Cardinals have a history of challenging teens in Peoria in May. If they stick, they move ahead quickly; if not, they play at their normal level that summer. They tried it with Carson Kelly, among others, but he was not yet ready the first time, too, and had to be backed off. It says nothing about their potential – just their timing. Citing stats without recognizing their context can lead to faulty conclusions.

    #127199
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    mudville said:

    I still don’t understand why the Marlins wanted to let go of Austin Dean. He was having a very good spring for the Cardinals this year, and he’s always had good minor league stats.

    Some Cardinals fans are saying this about Arozarena, too, hence this thread. Sometimes guys are just better off getting a shot somewhere else. The Marlins are loaded with younger outfield prospects and had roster issues, making Dean expendable.

    #127205
    Avatarbccran
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    Most people I know forecast and develop probabilities based upon historical performance. The Cardinals have been woeful drafting and developing outfielders from within. It hasn’t really been their priority and their first 5 round selections over the past 13 years have displayed that. In the last 13 years, they have drafted and developed exactly one who may have made it – Bader. And the jury is still out on him. The only difference right now is that the Cards have a guy who was drafted in the first round and was all minor league outfield last year. Carlson. That puts him by odds in a different category as far as possibly making it. Just by looking at what they have tried recently shows that they know the weakness is there. Why did they get Heyward?
    Why did they get Fowler? Why did they get Ozuna? Why just recently did they add Dean?

    #127206
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    Most people I know forecast and develop probabilities based upon historical performance.

    Ah, but how do they do that? I have not seen any real mention of probabilities here. Instead, simple slash lines from last year are cited with an assumption the prospect will not improve this year because someone else did not do so last year or the year before. Perhaps assigning probabilities would help moderate some of what appears to be fairly firm conclusions about matters that are anything but sure. I try to do that when ranking prospects by assigning ceilings and risk levels to those in the top 50. Granted, no matter what, it gets down to educated guessing…

    #127207
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    For example, for OF prospects over the winter, I graded them:

    Carlson 6.5 low
    Torres 6 high
    (O’Neill was 6 low and Thomas was 5.5 low the winter before – both graduated last season)
    Arozarena 5 low
    Williams 4.5 medium
    Garcia 4 medium

    On a general basis, because Torres is still high risk to achieve his potential and Arozarena was low risk (having already reached MLB), Arozarena was no. 7 overall (before the trade) while Torres was no. 12 in our 2020 rankings. (However, in my personal rankings, I had the two much closer, still with Randy ahead slightly.)

    For those curious, the full scales are near the bottom of this page:

    50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects – 2020

    #127215
    Avatarbccran
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    Would you agree that the more historical data you have to go on, the more accurate the forecast or projections might tend be? And resultant risk factor? For instance, Arozarena tore it up at the highest levels last year, including Memphis and his short time with the Cardinals. You can check his record in Cuba and all the way through our system. Torres is a young kid who has 75 plate appearances above rookie ball. Which one do you feel presents the highest risk as far as projections?

    #127228
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Of course the guy further from the majors is a higher risk. That doesn’t mean that he’s not the better prospect, though. I think Torres will be fine and I hope Arozarena does well in Tampa. I liked him as a player and would have preferred to keep him, but that’s probably why Tampa wanted him.

    #127229
    Avatarbccran
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    The Cardinals haven’t drafted many college outfielders in the high rounds over the years. The high school OFers they have drafted like Peoples-Walls, Plummer, etc. have pretty much been a bust.
    They have tried to correct the OF issue by bringing in guys from the outside like Heyward, Fowler, Ozuna, and Dean and even move a guy like Piscotty from 3B to
    OF. That move wasn’t just because they didn’t think he’d make it as a third baseman. So, are we all of the sudden going to be successful with what we have in the OF right now? What are the odds of it? BW doesn’t think the past applies. I hope it doesn’t

    #127230
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    and even move a guy like Piscotty from 3B to
    OF. That move wasn’t just because they didn’t think he’d make it as a third baseman.

    That is news to me. The Cardinals try to keep players at their most valuable position until they show they cannot, and third is more valuable than corner outfield.

    Of the three third basemen drafted together, Kelly and Piscotty were moved off and Wisdom was kept there because he was considered the best defender of the three.

    DeJong was later moved off third, but to an even more valuable defensive position, SS, because they felt he could handle it. He proved them right.

    #127239
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    So, are we all of the sudden going to be successful with what we have in the OF right now? What are the odds of it? BW doesn’t think the past applies. I hope it doesn’t

    Why should the past apply when the players aren’t the same? I’ll let you do some leg work…how many of the outfielders that failed in the majors were top 100 prospects? Bader, O’Neill and Carlson all were/are. Don’t you think that means that they might have a better chance to be good players?

    #127253
    Avatarbccran
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    Okay, let’s take a specific comparison. Grichuk wasn’t the answer, even though he was drafted in the 1st round in 2009. Tyler O’Neill was drafted in the 3rd round in 2013. The first question is why wasn’t Grichuk the answer? The second question, is that if Grichuk’s profile is similar as a young power hitter to O’Neills, why are we relying on O’Neill so much to be a power hitting guy in the #4 or #5 slot? He’s penciled in as a starter there right now.
    Unproven entity who strikes out too much and has had a hard time staying healthy.

    #127258
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I think the Grichuk comparison for O’Neill is just a lazy one. Grichuk never showed any ability to take a walk, was an overrated defender who wasn’t nearly as fast as O’Neill and his power is way short of Tyler’s. I’ll give you that Tyler has struggled to stay healthy and that he does K a lot, but given the at bats, there’s evidence (his minors time) that his K rate will come down to an acceptable level, his walk rate will be OK and his power and defense will profile well in a corner OF spot. He’s a far better bet than Grichuk.

    #127262
    Avatarbccran
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    Let’s take another direct comparison. When Peter Bourjos came to the Cardinals some thought he was the best defensive center fielder in the majors. For the Angels in 2013 he slashed .274/.333/.377/.710.
    In 2014 with the Cardinals, he was .231/.294/.348/.642. The next season with the Cardinals, he dropped to .200/.290/.333/.623. He went on to fail with the Phillies, Braves, Rays, and back to the Angels. And yet we are counting on Bader to learn how to lay off the slider down and away and hard four seamer at the letters. And drastically improve on his 2019 numbers which are similar to Bourjos numbers his last year with the Cardinals.

    #127263
    Avatarbccran
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    25 –
    Did you know that Grichuk won a gold glove in RF in the minors and led his league in assists? I don’t know why you would say his defense was overrated.

    #127270
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    25 –
    Did you know that Grichuk won a gold glove in RF in the minors and led his league in assists? I don’t know why you would say his defense was overrated.

    If they were voted on like the majors Gold Gloves then, that’s not a very strong endorsement. I don’t think he was a bad defender, but he wasn’t as good as we were told he was going to be, either.

    #127271
    Avatarbccran
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    Quote from Fangraphs scouting report – “Grichuk has enough power to rank as a decent hitter. He’s a capable defensive outfielder at all 3 positions, and is a fast runner.”

    #127272
    Avatarbccran
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    Is Bader better than Ramsey? Ramsey was the 23rd player taken in the 2012 draft, and had a 1.165 OPS at Florida State his draft year. 13 home runs, 6 triples, and 11 stolen bases in only 67 games.

    Is high schooler Fletcher better than high schoolers Peoples-Walls, McElroy, Plummer, and Tilson?

    #127279
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Note to self: This discussion reinforces my decision made long ago to avoid making player comps.

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