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Wong has been promising but has never been to much of an offensive threat. DeJong has a potent bat but it’s too early to declare him a difference maker.
Where I believe the Cardinals need to target is acquiring a young difference maker like Lindor. That is where they used to excel. Renteria, Rolen, Edmonds, Holliday, etc. They attempted it with Ozuna but it didn’t work out. It would have been nice to get Yelich but he wasn’t available when we acquired Ozuna.
If the discussion focus has again shifted – from the organization supposedly being “woeful” at drafting and developing ALL position players to not having a real difference-maker in the lineup – then I agree. In fact, I have written about that gap several times since Albert left. Quantity vs. top quality.
In the team’s defense, finding such a player in the draft is a lower-odds situation when they usually pick 19th or later. They tried to acquire one in Paul Goldschmidt and tied him up long term. He has led the league in HR and RBI, finished second in the MVP vote twice, has six All-Star appearances, three Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers. But granted, he was already 30.
The Dodgers have gambled on “young difference makers”. They tried with Machado, but he left after half a season. Now they may lose Betts without him ever playing a game for them. Teams like the Dodgers can afford to take risks the Cardinals may not feel comfortable in doing.
Had Goldschmidt delivered a typical “Goldschmidt season” in 2019, would we be having this (new) discussion?
Brian, I agree that the Cardinals can’t risk something like Machado or Betts. That is, unless the market allows us to once again make trades like we did for Edmonds, Rolen or Holliday.
Goldschmidt as a Diamondback in 2018 had 33 home runs and
83 runs batted in. In 2019, with the Cardinals, he had 34 home runs and 97 runs batted in.Having 10 less doubles and 4 less triples hurt his slugging percentage and his OPS. His OBP was also off a bit.
He provided great defense and solidified the whole infield defense, though. They don’t get to the final 4 without him.
He should be stronger in 2020. Many players who have been traded had an adjustment year both professionally and personally the first season with a new team.
Maybe “woeful” is too strong of a word. Here are the position players drafted by the Cardinals over the past decade in the first 10 rounds –
2010- – Tuivailala/Stanley/Longmire/Garcia/Williams
All busts. Tuivialala finally some success as a pitcher.
2011 -Wong/Tilson/McElroy/Peoples-Walls/Erlich/Martini/Jefferies
Wong. All the rest are busts.
2012 – Ramsey/Piscotty/Wisdom/Bean/Kelly/Mejia/Gonzales/Wick/
WilsonNo one to help the Cardinals long term. Kelly helped in a trade.
2013 – Mercado/Katz/Rivera/Colleymore
Mercado traded. All the rest are busts.
2014 – Seferina/Sohn/O’Keefe/Thompson/Diekroger
All busts
2015 – Plummer/Denton/Bader/DeJong/Jenner/Brombeck/Brown
Finally, Bader and DeJong (in the 3rd and 4th rounds).
All the rest are busts.2016 – Perez/Carlson/Martinez/Robbins/Redmond/Knizner/Fiedler/Hudzina
Carlson should become a fixture. Knizner has a shot.
2017 – Hurst/Robertson/Kirtley/Johnson/Pinder
All will probably be busts
2018 – Gorman/Baker/Gil/Dunn/Donovan/Nootbar/Duce/Woodall
Gorman is outstanding. Baker fair.
2019 – Fletcher/Pages/Lott
Who knows? Maybe Fletcher will work out.
Really only Wong, Bader, and DeJong have become starter position players over 10 years of drafting, with an eye on Carlson and Gorman to possibly add to the list. And Bader hasn’t solidified his position yet.
Those are the bottom line results for 61 higher level draftees over 10 years – Wong, DeJong, maybe Bader, hopefully Carlson and Gorman.
Overall there must be a better word to use than “woeful”.
Maybe “weak”?At last look Bader was still chasing the low, outside slider. Because of his hitting, I don’t see him as a starting outfielder in 2021. I think Thomas will be in centerfield, with Carlson in RF and probably O’Neill in left, although I think there’s a possibility of Carpenter being in left field with Montero or Mendoza or Arendola at third. If O’Neill proves he can hit during this shortened season, and he might very well do that given his newly restructured body and improved swing, they might have to let him have centerfield.
A lot of ifs, Mudville.
1.) If Bader can lay off low and away sliders and high fast balls.
2.) If O’Neill can stay healthy.
3.) If Thomas can return to his 2018 production.
4.) If Carlson can live up to his billing.By law of averages, at least several of these of should hopefully work out.
Position players first 5 rounds –
2007 – Kozma (1), Descalso (3)
2008 – Wallace (1), Peterson (2) Vazques (3)
2009 – Stock (1), Jackson (5)
2010 – Tuivailala (3), Stanley (4), Longmire (5)
2011 – Wong (1), Tilson (2), McElroy (3, Peoples-Walls (4)
2012 – Ramsey (1) Piscotty (1A), Wisdom (1A), Bean (1A), Kelly (2), Mejia (4)
2013 – Mercado (2), Katz (4)
2014 – Seferina (5)
2015 – Plummer (1), Denton (2), Bader (3), DeJong (4)
2016 – Perez (1), Carlson (1), Martinez (4), Robbins (5)
2017 – Hurst (3), Robertson (4), Kirtley (5)
2018 – Gorman (1), Baker (2C), Gil (3), Dunn (5)
2019 – Fletcher – (2)Brian mentioned the fact that we don’t get to pick high normally in the first round. Maybe that has something to do with it.
I don’t think a lost 2020 diminishes J-Mart and Arozarenas value in the trade. DH can be effective in mid to late 30’s (Cruz, Pence, Choo). JD Martinez is slightly older than Jose. Those are four of the top 10 DH’s last season (w/200 PA’s). Now if Jose has to play the outfield regularly, that could effect his production. Surely Tampa has film of Jose in the outfield 🙂
Some felt that Jose was our most reliable hitter. And in 3 years and over 1,000 innings in right field he only had 3 errors.
You are really stretching now, bccran.
Errors are worthless to measure defensive prowess. Anyone who watches games knows where Martinez stacked up defensively. He is a big man with bad knees.
On your other point, Martinez’ offensive production declined every year. Here are some of his reliability measures from last season:
2 outs, runners in scoring position: .133 batting average
late and close: .159
tie game: .244
high leverage: .208
innings 7-9: .210JMart’s enthusiasm was infectious. Uplifted the whole team. He was always the first player to offer congratulations when another player did something positive. He was the team’s best cheerleader. Great teammate. He will be missed.
I liked Jmart and loved his story, but he wasn’t a great fit on an NL team that was attempting to compete for titles. He will do well in Tampa and that’s fine.
As for the starting outfield in 2022, that’s so far out that it’s hard to predict. My 10,000 foot pure guess, though, is that the 4 primary outfielders will be Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, and Elehuris Montero (who will hit too well to not land somewhere and 1B is already taken up for years).
That would be interesting, 25. When was the last time the Cardinals had an outfield made up completely of players who came through the system?
In 2008, the Opening Day outfielders were Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel and Skip Schumaker. That is the only example in recent times as it fit just between the Edmonds and Holliday years (both of whom were trade acquisitions).
(The assumption of “came up through the system” vs. homegrown is needed for O’Neill to qualify. Since he was already established at Triple-A when acquired, the claim is debatable.)
Trades and free agent signings are so unpredictable that it’s very difficult to pick anything but internal promotions with any comfort.
That said, the response to your argument could be that the Cards are due to have a successful “home grown” outfield, no?
I’ve said this before that the Rays probably wanted Arozarena to be included in the trade. It wasn’t that the Cards thought that he was most expendable.
I would include both Lane and Edman as starting OF candidates.
As far as having to include Fowler as a starter in 2020? and ’21 (which will be his contract year). Perhaps with some hard work during this lay-off he could become at least adequate. Bader should not have been given the presumptive CF starter spot. As of now and IMO O’Neill-Lane-Bader-Edman should be battling for the other two spots.
Since it appears that there will be a lack of power in RF, which should be a power spot, the team will be looking at the LF starter to provide a better than average power bat. O’Neill will be given the opportunity to be that guy.
Just when will Carlson be ready? And will he live up to the hype? That’s still TBD. There’s plenty of “ifs” out there and the people that play will be the ones whose performances give the team the best chance to win. Maybe out of the younger players we will get a couple that will provide multiple years of service. Carlson seems to be our best chance of that but you should not be making presumptions about any of them because the OF spots will need to be earned (except in right).
Drafted college players have a higher chance of making it to the major leagues than high school players who are developmental projects. Just a documented fact. So it’s interesting to look at the list I posted above of the
position players taken in the top 5 rounds going back to 2007. How many college outfielders were taken? I count 5 total over 13 years. No wonder we don’t stock the OF internally as a general rule.So here’s the total effort over the past 13 years for college outfielders in the first 5 rounds of the draft –
Shane Peterson 2nd round in 2008- bust
Nick Longmire – 5th round in 2011 – bust
James Ramsey – 1st round in 2012 – bust
Harrison Bader – 3rd round in 2015 – may make it
Scott Hurst – 3rd round in 2017 – probably bustThat’s it. In 13 years. Therehas been almost zero emphasis on college outfielders in the 1st 5 rounds of the draft for a long time.
One last comment. Lane Thomas was traded to the Cardinals by the Blue Jays in 2017 for international bonus slot money. So even he isn’t a pure Cardinal system talent. He came from the outside. Like O’Neill. So Bader is the only real pure Cardinal draft product. To be joined by Carlson soon. With no one else in the system right no in sight until you get all the way down to Torres.
I’m not sure why it matters so much how players were acquired, whether they were in HS or college, or all of these extraneous variables. In any given draft, a team that decides they are going to pigeonhole themselves by choosing a “position x” player of “type y” is going to find themselves missing out on plenty of talent. That’s just poor strategy.
Further, the Cards have drafted many positions pretty well and I don’t see the value in harping on one of the rare dim spots as though it can be used to extrapolate the future.
It’s not big deal, 25. I just see the Cardinals set over the next number of years except for the OF, which could be their Achilles heel. Below the Memphis level, there simply aren’t any exciting outfield prospects with the possible exception of Torres. And if O’Neill gets hurt and Bader doesn’t improve offensively I see only one bright spot to fill three positions over the next few years – Carlson.
Gotcha, bccran. I suppose the one positive there is with some contracts coming off the books (Yadi, Carpenter, Fowler), they should have some cash available to sign a veteran OFer if they so need to in a couple of years.
Very true, 25. Actually, what I’d like to see them do is to pull off another trade like the Goldschmidt trade, but this time for an outfielder.
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