The Arozarena-Jmart/Liberatore Trade

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  • #126848
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Knowing what we know now about the (for sure) delay or (likely) cancelation of the 2020 season, does this tilt the trade even a little more in the Cards’ favor?

    When the trade happened, I was a bit bummed to lose Arozarena, who was one of my favorite of the outfield group, but excited to get a top quality LHP prospect that we haven’t had in a long time (probably better than Marco Gonzales, maybe since Jaime Garcia?). With the season looking like it will be a half year at best, and probably a full year off, Jmart will be a year older when he actually plays again (he’ll turn 32 this year) and Arozarena will be 26 at the start of next season. This, seemingly, diminishes their value a bit.

    Meanwhile, Liberatore will be 21 and probably at AA even if they lose this entire year, which is a perfectly fine pace for a prospect. His value probably changes little. So in the end, it seems like the Cards had good timing on making this trade and could get an even greater “edge” if the season doesn’t end up happening.

    Anyway, just a thought on a frozen Friday.

    #126892
    Avatarbccran
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    25 – It’s nice to get Liberatore, but the Cards are a lot deeper in pitching than they are in outfielders. The lack of true outfield depth could be a problem both now and years into the future. That being said, in the Liberatore trade I would have traded any two outfielders not named Carlson or Arozarana.

    #126893
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    That being said, in the Liberatore trade I would have traded any two outfielders not named Carlson or Arozarana.

    So does that mean if TB insisted on Arozarena, you as the Cardinals would not have made the trade?

    #126894
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    My view in making a too-early assessment of any trade is to look to the team that got the best player. Liberatore is a consensus top 50 prospect in MLB. Arozarena was never a ranked prospect by any national rater and Martinez appears to be on the downside of his career.

    I would not pass up a chance to get better overall because of supposed worries about positional depth. By keeping O’Neill, Bader, Thomas and Carlson, but letting Arozarena go, the Cardinals made their priority clear.

    A differing percentage of fans (but always non-zero) will disagree about any trade, but only time will tell who is more accurate at player evaluation – you or them.

    #126895
    AvatarGameCard
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    The trade was a good one for the Cardinals.

    #126897
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    My view in making a too-early assessment of any trade is to look to the team that got the best player. Liberatore is a consensus top 50 prospect in MLB. Arozarena was never a ranked prospect by any national rater and Martinez appears to be on the downside of his career.

    I agree. Liberatore is a nice addition and his value is basically unchanged by this year, while Arozarena and (especially) Jmart’s values diminish a little.

    The change of draft picks is a bit of a move in the Rays’ direction but not a major one.

    #126902
    Avatarbccran
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    Would I have made the trade if TB insisted on RA? Probably, but I would have been pushing hard on it being any another young outfielder besides RA and DC.

    #126904
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    The Cards don’t have a problem developing major league players, but over the last decade, they haven’t produced many all star level guys. You need a few of those to be consistently great. Other than Flaherty, I wouldn’t consider a single current Cardinal “great”(including Goldy now). So trading for a potentially all star level player is always a solid move.

    #126905
    Avatarbccran
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    ChiTown –

    Here’s an interesting question. Over the past 25 years, have most of the starting position players come from outside the organization, or from inside the system? What about the impact type players? How many impact position players has the Cardinals system produced in the last 25 years?

    Let’s look at the World Series winner of 2006 for example.

    Molina
    Pujols
    Miles (outside)
    Eckstein (outside)
    Rolen (outside)
    Taguchi (outside)
    Edmonds (outside)
    Encarnacion (outside)

    When the Cardinals went away from bringing in some proven position players from the outside, and relied on guys like Piscotty, Adams, Grichuk, etc. they missed the playoffs. That’s why I’m so leary of the Bader, O’Neill, Thomas experiment in our outfield. We need one proven position player out there besides Fowler (ugh).

    #126943
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    I liked the deal then and like it now. JMart is a non-factor in my opinion – an over-30 DH type guy. Would have liked to have kept Arozarena, but love getting Liberatore for anyone going the other way except Carlson.

    On a side note, I wonder if Arozarena’s brain cramp of posting the profanity laced tirade by Shildt hurt his standing with management? You never want to make a deal for non-on-the-field reasons, but clubs still do it and take the risk.

    #126948
    Avatarbccran
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    Let me ask you a question, Mike. Do you think Bader, O’Neill, or Thomas are better than Piscotty and Grichuk, who are no longer Cardinals?

    #126950
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I am not Mike, but I will restate the same question. Do guys who are 24-25 years old but with relatively limited MLB experience have the POTENTIAL to be better than veterans who are 28-29 years old?

    Seems to me unless you know the future, you’d not write off the ones who are four years younger. Some may make it and some may not.

    #126954
    Avatarbccran
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    Mike –

    I’ll stand on my premise that the Cardinals have been successful at drafting pitching talent, and that they have been woeful at drafting and developing position player talent. I’ve provided the data for that. What they have been successful at is trading for position player talent. Or signing proven veteran OF talent to a short term FA deal. They are in a position right now that doesn’t lead to a World Series team – no highly productive veteran anchoring the OF. Take a look at past World Series teams –

    1982 – Willie McGee, George Hendrick, Lonnie Smith

    1985 – Willie McGee, Vince Coleman, Andy Van Slyke

    2004 – Jim Edmonds, Reggie Sanders, Ray Lankford

    2006 – Jim Edmonds, Juan Encarnacion, So Taguchi

    2011 – Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, Colby Rasmus

    2013 – Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, John Jay.

    Again, the Cards needed to get a Beltran/Berkman/Encarnacion/Sanders type for 2020. An unproductive (and overpaid) veteran and 3 unproven youngsters isn’t very smart.

    #126965
    Avatarbccran
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    2019 stats –

    Bader – .205/.314/.366/.680
    O’Neill – .262/.311/.411/.722
    Fowler – .238/.346/.409/.755

    BW – you can dress that up in a formal gown and pile on the makeup but it’s still ugly. Might be statistically one of the worst outfields in all of MLB in 2019.

    #126975
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The focus of the discussion seems to change with each post. If the question on the table now is that the outfield in 2019 did not perform well offensively, that is one thing. In fact, other than second base, the entire Cardinals offense underperformed.

    The question for the outfield is whether one believes the inexperienced players can get better. You seem sure the answer is no, and every player who got away is clearly better than the ones who remain (excepting Carlson).

    On a general point, if teams could solely rely on prior offensive slash stats to predict future player value, think of all the money they could save by firing their scouts and player development personnel. They could run the system by spreadsheet!

    #126976
    Avatarbccran
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    I have never said that Bader, O’Neill, and Thomas won’t develop into productive major league outfielders. I have simply said that the odds may be against it because of the history of the Cardinals. And that they should have hedged their bets by bringing in a Berkman/Beltran/Sanders type. Having one or 2 outfield positions at offensive production risk is one thing. Having all 3 is another.
    They simple don’t have a single outfielder they can count on – for sure – in 2020. Agree?

    #126977
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    I have never said that Bader, O’Neill, and Thomas won’t develop into productive major league outfielders. I have simply said that the odds may be against it because of the history of the Cardinals.

    I don’t buy that the development of Player A has any relation to the development of Player B 10, 20 or 30 years later.

    bccran said:

    … they have been woeful at drafting and developing position player talent… What they have been successful at is trading for position player talent. Or signing proven veteran OF talent to a short term FA deal.

    Let’s do a quick fact check.

    Current Cardinals offensive starters drafted by the team (5): Yadier Molina, Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter, Harrison Bader

    Current Cardinals starters acquired via trade (2): Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill

    Current Cardinals starters acquired via free agency (1): Dexter Fowler

    Most people believe that Dylan Carlson will replace one of the latter three very soon, raising the total to six of eight offensive starters having been drafted and developed completely within the organization. That is not “woeful”. Look around baseball.

    #126979
    Avatarbccran
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    I don’t need to look around baseball to determine how many impact (or even long term successful) position players have been developed by the Cardinals. A comparison is irrelevant. What’s relevant is many successful long term outfielders have been developed by the Cardinals over the past 25 years? Compared to the success rate of bringing in outfielders from the outside that have helped get Cardinal teams to the World Series? Brock? Outside. McGee? Outside. Holliday? Outside. Edmonds? Outside. Walker? Outside. Beltran? Outside. Berkman? Outside.

    What about recent guys like Heyward, Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Ozuna, Fowler? All from outside. And yet against all odds you expect Bader, O’Neill, and/or Thomas to be the answer?

    #126980
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    This discussion has taken so many turns that I am dizzy.

    First it was concern about not keeping Arozarena.
    Then it was concern that today’s outfield does not stack up to Piscotty and Grichuk.
    Then it was going ever further back in history to suggest today’s outfield does not stack up.
    Then it was a wish that a Berkman/Beltran/Sanders-type had been signed.
    Then it was a general alarm that the Cardinals are “woeful” at drafting and developing all position players.

    I think that summarizes it. Whew!

    #126982
    Avatarbccran
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    I’m sorry, BW, that it seems dizzying.

    First, I simply said that I preferred Arozarena over Bader, O’Neill, and Thomas. That might also be the case with the TB front office. I hated to lose Arozarena but I think it was an overall decent trade.

    Secondly, I’ve said all along that I have never seen a Cardinals OF without a keystone player. And I’ve displayed that. That’s where we are today. I have never said that Piscotty and Grichuk were better than what we have today. I brought them into the conversation because they weren’t the solution that the Cardinals have been looking for. And that Bader, O’Neill, and Thomas certainly may not be the solution either.

    How many Cardinal OFers developed within the system within the last 25 years have been a long term answer?

    Here’s a list of possibles –

    Gilkey
    Jordan
    Lankford
    Maybry
    Drew
    Pujols
    Rasmus
    Duncan
    Schumaker
    Jay
    Craig
    Grichuk
    Piscotty
    Pham

    How many OFers developed in the system in the last decade have settled in to being decently long term fixtures in the outfield? I’m sorry, but it’s a problem. And as I said, I really would rather not go into 2020 with an aging, ineffective veteran who’s over paid and 3 “hopefuls”.

    I truly believe that Carlson is a cut far above the rest.
    But that leaves CF and LF as still future question marks.

    Two different subjects. With an opinion expressed in each subject. That’s all.

    #127010
    Avatarbccran
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    Still trying to figure this out. In the past, rarely have 50% or more of the Cardinals starting position players been developed internally. Let’s take a look at this century.

    2000 – Only Langford and Drew
    2001 – Only Pujols and Lankford
    2002 – Only Pujols and Drew
    2003 – Only Pujols and Drew
    2004 – Only Pujols and Lankford
    2005 – Only Pujols and Molina
    2006 – Only Pujols and Molina
    2007 – Pujols, Molina, Kennedy, and Duncan
    2008 – Pujols, Molina, Kennedy, and Schumaker
    2009 – Pujols, Molina, Schumaker, Rasmus, and Ryan
    2010 – Pujols, Schumaker, Ryan, and Rasmus
    2011 – Pujols, Molina, Schumaker, and Rasmus
    2012 – Molina, Descalso, Craig, and Jay
    2013 – Molina, Craig, Kozma, Carpenter, and Jay
    2014 – Molina, Carp, Adams, Wong, and Craig
    2015 – Molina, Wong, and Carpenter
    2016 – Molina, Adams, Wong, and Piscotty
    2017 – Molina, Wong, Carp, DeJong, Pham, Piscotty
    2018 – Molina, Wong, Carp, DeJong, and Pham
    2019 – Molina, Wong, DeJong, Carp, and Bader

    So what do we have to show for outfielders developed over those 20 years?

    Lankford (very good)
    Drew (traded)
    Duncan (marginal)
    Schumaker (converted to infielder)
    Rasmus (traded)
    Craig (traded)
    Jay (good)
    Piscotty (traded)
    Pham (traded)
    Bader (unproven)

    #127020
    Avatarbccran
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    25 –

    Here’s a straight forward question.
    Fowler will be gone after 2021.
    Who are our starting 2022 outfielders? O’Neill-Bader-Carlson?
    That would be utterly fantastic.
    Hope it happens.

    #127022
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    To chime in, Piscotty and Grichuk is not exactly a high bar for comparison. Both had woeful 2019 seasons, .8 and .4 WAR respectively, each with and OPS+ of 93. While we never know what the future holds, we can certainly say Bader, Thomas and O’Neill would not have to do much to be better than Stephen and Randal. In terms of WAR, even with a lousy year Bader was better than Piscotty and Grichuk combined, due to elite defense.

    The last Cardinals home grown outfielder I was real high on was Tommy Pham. I lobbied for him to get more playing time well before the Cardinals were more or less forced to use him. Now Carlson looks to be a special player.

    As for bringing in a veteran of the Beltran, Bergman, Walker type, I am not sure who that would be. They thought Ozuna would fill the bill as a significant offensive threat at an outfield position, but he was not quite as good as hoped.

    #127026
    Avatarbccran
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    Mike – In Brian’s example, he brought up Molina and Carp as part of the home grown group with the Cardinals right now. They are excellent examples of long term stability. I believe that’s what Bill DeWitt likes, and branding is one of the reasons. You can create that positional stability both internally and externally. Pujols, Molina, Matt Carpenter, Holliday, etc. have provided that stability. Right now from outside, they have created stability at first base with Goldschmidt. They tried to create stability in CF/RF with Fowler. If Ozuna had performed up to hope, I truly believe he would have been extended to create that stability in left field. Wong and DeJong have come along nicely and hopefully have created middle infield stability. So now, they are going to see if Bader/O’Neill/Thomas/Carlson can create stability in the outfield since they’re all under control for many years. I’m all for that.

    #127032
    Avatarforsch31
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    Bc, per your 20 year list earlier, 12 of those 20 years the Cardinals had at least 50% of it’s starters as home grown. That’s a little more than rarely. I’m not going to argue that we haven’t developed a true difference maker other than Carpenter in the last decade, though.

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