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Keeping Helsley until July could be the smart move unless he gets hurt or underperforms. Then it is a missed opportunity. Of course Mo could just be posturing here to get a better return in trade.
Some is posturing. I think it’s the smart move. Have a price in mind and if no one meets it then take your chances with Helsley and see where things are at during the deadline bidding war. It could backfire. It could also up the price now or help the team compete. My point is there’s no reason to sell him at all costs to the highest bidder now if you don’t think it’s a good offer. I hope he’s traded away in a lucrative deal for the Cardinals. The next best option is to keep him and reassess later.
There’s probably more value in trading Fedde now. Average starting pitching in a contract year isn’t typically an extreme need at the deadline, but getting that for a whole season is likely to draw more interest. Conversely, the Cardinals do need to eat innings. But I think if Gray is truly staying, I’d try to trade Fedde now. He’s more likely to bring back a better prospect package right now than Helsley just because of the nature of their roles and their respective salaries.
But if you also trade Matz, the starting rotation may be completely up in the air going into Spring Training. Gray, Pallante, Mikolas, McGreevey and . . . You need at least 2 others as someone is always hurt. There’s lots of options (Rom, Robberse, Graceffo, Thompson, Liberatore, Munoz) but all come with tons of question marks.
Of course you could always trade Fedde for a couple other potential unproven starters.
I still say we should extend Helsley, not trade him……. unless we can get a top prospect and at least one organizational top 10 prospect back. However, the Cardinals’ economics have changed. If they can package Helsley with Arenado in order to move Arenado’s contract, they might want to do it. That said, I think Arenado has value and could get at least one top prospect back in a trade. It gets pretty complicated.
Not sure where to post this, but we are actually getting a competitive balance pick this year. 5th in round B.
I dont think helsley will agree to an extension unless its very lucrative and i dont see the cardinals doing that. I guess it v would depend on helsley and how much he values himself. If he feels he can get good more money in free agency after 2025 which is highly probable if hes healthy, he shouldnt go for an extension. Just depends on him.
I don’t know what it would take to get him extended. But if the Cardinals offered him something that was reasonable, say 5 yrs/20M and he accepted it, he would be set for life no matter what happens to him or to the economics of baseball in general. This doesn’t seem to be a particularly active offseason for free agents, the 2025-2026 offseason could be less active.
I think it’s the MLB version of coach speak. Except it is Bowtie doing the talking. He wants to send out a message before the Winter Meetings that we are open but the price better be right.
It’s a risky move if they do decide to hold onto him. Also consider that they don’t necessarily have to hold on until July. Team falters or is very average and they could deal him earlier to a team who is in the same boat and wants to get a deal done.
I have to laugh though. This so called rebuild or reset is looking a lot like just shedding Goldschmidt and saying goodbye to some old pitchers. I guess there’s a rumble out there that maybe Gibson could be retained. Arenado it doesn’t appear will approve a trade unless it’s a real contender and it sure sounds like we don’t want to eat any money to do it.
I can’t imagine the Cardinals hiring all the new developement personnel if they don’t intend to aquire better prospects to put in the new system. Helsley is our best trade chip to help bring some of those guys in. I think Mo’s mouth is just moving in response to the question when asked about him being traded.
49-4 is likely a career year in saves opps for Helsley, but it is also his current effeciency. Ryans 7mil salary could help prevent 90 losses, and the continued fallout of tickets sales, which is good budget spent if the FO keeps him. I wouldn’t view keeping Helsley as Mo trying to win, but instead as Bill with ticket sales concerns. By the deadline, the above concerns may loosen up Helsley for trade, with less than 5mil used off the budget.
If the FO gets this one wrong it would be quite an accomplishment. TBD.
One factor to remember is that Mo is still in charge. Bloom is not yet. That will likely affect priorities.
Brian-Do you really think Mo would go against Blooms wishes on anything really important, like trading Helsley?
I can’t imagine the Cardinals hiring all the new developement personnel if they don’t intend to aquire better prospects to put in the new system. Helsley is our best trade chip to help bring some of those guys in. I think Mo’s mouth is just moving in response to the question when asked about him being traded.
That is exactly how I view it.
Brian-Do you really think Mo would go against Blooms wishes on anything really important, like trading Helsley?
I am not Brian but I do remember Mo saying that he would consult Bloom with any decision that would directly impact the team beyond 2025. Keeping Helsley for 2025 doesn’t technically fall under that category but extending Helsley certainly would. Bloom doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy wanting to spend $100M on a closer. I can’t fathom the Cardinals doing that.
If they don’t trade Helsley now or at least by the deadline then they are once again just demonstrating half measures. When they try to build a team they do it halfway and when they try to rebuild they do it halfway.
No conspiracies, just being logical in my thoughts about what may be going on.
As gscottar said, Mo said he would consult with Bloom, not the other way around. Mo is still making the MLB decisions until he retires. Bloom’s primary 2025 focus is on the minor leagues.
Also, as noted, Helsley is a 2025 matter only, very different from Arenado, for example. The odds are somewhere between slim and none that Helsley would have been extended – before and especially now, after the recent dip in fortunes. He might still be traded this off-season, but he also may not unless the price is truly right (as others have suggested).
As I said before, my view is that Mo wants to support the new PD direction, but I am guessing he wants even a tiny bit more to not retire on a downturn with a losing MLB team. He’ll still be trying to field a competitive roster within the financial constraints he has been given.
In other words, I expect mass trades to load up on prospects (vs. more immediate salary dumps that won’t generate much in return) to come later, if at all. The Cardinals clearly said they aren’t rebuilding, at least yet.
That isn’t crazy anyway, as the Cardinals have barely started making their new player development hires, let alone purchased equipment and built processes to change how they develop players. That won’t happen overnight. 2025 looks to me like a transition year in every way.
Others may have different views, and I get that, too…
Bills priority. His budget and ticket sales to consider (W/L). I don’t expect Helsleys status to be an employee decision.
I agree with Brian’s non-conspiracy theory that Mo might not be overwhelmed by a need to stock Bloom’s farm.
The payroll for 2025 might already be low enough. Whatever trades happen this winter might shake out to be payroll neutral, at least for 2025, and playing the young guys could include new young guys.
All the activity so far is bosses and management. But none of the acquisitions actually play baseball. Same old faces on the field will no doubt lead to same results. With less than three months before spring training, this rebuild/reset is still sitting on the launch pad. I eagerly await the “mass trades” BW refers to.
So what if the Cardinals are competitive in the WC and division and the some of the crybaby fans return to the park? What do we do about Helsley?
Just a thought! We have to see how the rest of the winter plays out first.
If you keep Helsley because you think maybe we might compete in 25, you are doing the thing that got us here in the first place. You know they aren’t extending him. He will be an uncompensated fa after 25 if you don’t trade him at the deadline. His value is his value. Trade him for equal value and get on with building a pipeline that supplies ml quality players to the team. You can’t wait for some team to overpay for him. Best case you compete for a wildcard. You aren’t going anywhere after that. And don’t say anything can happen. Albert and Yadi and Waino aren’t here anymore. But just maybe we can grow some new stars if we complete the rebuild of our system. And that means trading current assets for prospects to stock the system. And not just stock it, but flood it. That’s what the teams that are successful at this do. If they keep Helsley, don’t fool yourself into thinking they want to win. They want to sell tickets. And they’re willing to risk the health of the development system to do it.
Bloom vs Doom is a nice sideshow for the fans to preoccupy themselves with, but it’s about resetting the financials now, where Bill can, when he can.
“Broke” micromanages its budget, which is why the Gibson and Lynn options being declined was an easy call. If you missed that one badly, try putting Bills decision making first.
I understand these guys are in business to make money. Smoke and mirrors isn’t going to put 3.3 in the seats anymore. That requires a team capable of winning a playoff game. They aren’t going to buy it. They tried that. They don’t have enough revenue to buy it AND eat their mistakes. They must build it. They must be willing to accept lower attendance for a few years. It’s not anymore complicated than that.
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