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In my opinion trading Helsley should be a no brainer. His value will never ever be higher than it is right now and a rebuilding team doesn’t really need a closer with one year of control. They could wait until the trade deadline but you risk injury or underperformance. They should trade him this winter.
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2024/11/15/24296746/examining-trade-fits-for-ryan-helsley
Agreed. A team not in the hunt has no need for a top closer, but plenty of other teams will. We could get a top 100 prospect for Helsey.
They have three options:
1) Trade him this winter
2) Trade him at the deadline
3) Extend himAs to whether option 1) or 2) is more preferable, I think it depends on what they are trying to do.
If they are going to run the club out there as it is now, and risk losing another 350,000 or more fans after 2025 (they lost 360,000 in paid attendance from 2023-2024), trade him now.
If they want to try to hold their fan base, they are going to have to do some upgrades in the outfield, and they should hold him until the trade deadline and try to field a winner.
I also think if the Cardinals trade Helsley in the offseason, they should trade Fedde in the offseason.
I argued they should have traded him at the deadline last season to maximize his value.
At this point, for me it depends on if they are truly keeping Gray and Contreras. If they are, then I’m ok with keeping Helsley and seeing where we are in July. There is risk there. But there also could be reward. Plus, assuming he pitches well and isn’t injured, his value won’t fall much between now and the deadline.
I can see management just trading Arenado and Matz to cut expenses and picking up 1-2 low cost free agents and then sitting back and watching how their young team plays.
If they do trade Helsley, they could use a third baseman or a center fielder. Controllable for a good while, of course. The third baseman should maybe be the first choice since that is a barren moonscape in the system.
Obviously if you wait til deadline, you run the risk of him getting an injury and being worth nothing. The obvious one is to trade him now when you find a good deal. Im still trying to wrap my head around that there are still people thinking we are going to be competitive next year. Crazy.
What I find crazy is that people don’t understand the financial impact of tanking and how long it lasts.
And I’m trying to wrap my head around those who say the team can’t be competitive next year. I’m not saying they will be, but there’s absolutely a chance they could be. Thus far they haven’t lost any players that hurt. And, they’re better positioned with Fedde and Pallante as starters than they were with Lynn and Gibson. Plus, McGreevey is almost certainly going to be a better starter than Matz last year. There’s tons of good arms available at AAA for the pen. It’s the offense that’s a big question mark. If Walker and Gorman hit as well as ‘22, then some of those issues get solved. That’s the biggest if. It’s still not a great team. But it certainly could be competitive.
It’s my guess that if they get around 100 RBI’s from each corner IF’er and four members of the rotation work upwards of 150 IP’ed they’ll be competitive in 2025 if they can find an everyday CF’er who can swing the bat and a Big League manager. And oh…they’ll need a catcher.
Maybe they wanted to remind Gorman what a minor league paycheck looks like. Rattle his cage. Not sure it would help, but it might. I don’t know what to say about Walker. I don’t know what to say about first base or catcher or center field or third base, whether NA is here or not. I don’t really know what to say about corner outfield in general. There’s Noot, if he stays healthy and if they don’t need him in center. The roster is completely disfunctional. But hey, the White Sox beat us last year, so we should be able to beat some teams no matter how shitty we are. They need a leader to step up though. Not a has been at the end of the bench. Somebody all skinned up with dirt on him.
I’m for extending Helsley. No matter who they would get in a trade for Helsley, it still would cost them 10+ wins. Losing games, especially because of lack of a closer, is a real downer. That said, the Orioles have Gunnar Henderson to play 3B and Jackson Holliday to take over at SS, so the Orioles might consider trading Coby Mayo who is primarily a third baseman. Obviously, the Cardinals would first have to move Arenado. And a trade that included Helsley and Mayo would need to be expanded, IMO.
Well there is nothing like people who straddle the fence and wont take a stand. Ive said the last two seasons we wouldnt be competitive and we werent. And when i say competitive, i mean vying for a playoff spot, legitimate spot. True one could argue not much has changed if you look on paper but i disagree with that. To me lots have changed and what has stayed the same doesnt change my opinion. But there are always miracles i guess. However i stand by what i said til im proven wrong.
Most here believe the 83 wins in 2024 was a mirage. They point at the RS/RA totals as “lucky”, and their point is legit. I point at Helsley, not the pythag.
The 2024 rotation was better, even tho the lineup wasn’t, resulting in 19 more save opportunities, than in 2023. Both the 23′ and 24′ clubs blew 28 saves, but the 19 extra save opps in 24′ were all cashed in, as wins. I point at Helsley.
Better in 2025? Without Helsleys saves, we might be better than 2023, IF the rotation is a wash, and IF, half the lineup remembers how to hit. Could be worse than 2023 too, if a 49-4 closer is dealt away and isn’t replaced.
TBD.
I agree JJ. Helsley is a key lynchpin. His efforts in ‘24 kept more games on the W side than what would have normally been expected. Contreras and Gray too are both strengths. If those 3 are kept, then it’s hard to be certain of the outcome. I support all opinions. I just don’t love it when people talk in absolutes as if they know the future for certain. The future is unknown and unknowable. Pretending otherwise is foolish.
We are talking about winning or not winning with no clue what the roster will look like. Talking in absolutes or any other way isn’t going to move the dubious needle any when it is hard up against the peg already.
I think its pretty easy to determine things. They have already said they arent going to spend much money. Far as roster and what it looks like now vs march. Its not going to change much if you take management at their word which is what i do. The two biggest names we have could be gone, could stay. To me it moves the needle very little either way. In a normal season where we come in as favorites or at least competing for first place, i would say keep helsley. We would be expecting some added pieces. But this isnt that so best to do what we can to get better in 2026 elsewise we will be going the same route in 2026 and maybe beyond. But i guess some would rather have the same ole same ole instead of maybe competing for a world series in a few seasons.
Keeping Helsley is the clearest path to keeping the W/L respectable, like in 2024, but the gate stunk anyway, right?
Now what? Lol, we may be on the “event horizon”! 😉
I don’t think the Cardinals are doing a full on tank job like the Cubs and Astros did a decade ago, therefore, I think they will re-emerge sooner than those teams did. And I think Cardinal fans will flock back to Busch when they do.
Can the Cardinals be successful in 2025? I would say that that the best case scenario is that they are a .500 club but they could also be a 70-75 win team. I’m not that worried about it either way. I am more concerned about them being strong two or three years from now with a solid enough foundation to make it last for a long period of time.
Keeping Helsley so we can we win 80 games instead of 70 doesn’t accomplish anything in the long the run. In fact it is the kind of short term thinking that led to this mess. I am ready to get off of the merry go round of mediocrity and get out of purgatory. The fence straddlers won’t let go of the rope.
And I think Cardinal fans will flock back to Busch when they do.
There is overwhelming evidence from around the league that it takes years to rebuild the fan base.
But we can ignore the statistics, just like the Cardinals front office does.
There is overwhelming evidence from around the league that it takes years to rebuild the fan base.
But we can ignore the statistics, just like the Cardinals front office does.
Perhaps you are correct but not all fanbases are the same. It is hard to compare apples to apples because the Cardinals have never done a reset like this, at least not intentionally that I recall. Saying that Cardinal fans will not quickly return or saying that they will quickly return is just a guess because we don’t have any direct experience with it.
What we do know is the Cardinal fanbase has grown weary of the Mo regime and the annual attempt to build an 85 win team and capture the final playoff spot. Looking at last year’s attendance I think the fans have spoken with what they think of that approach. It might be time to try something different. If Cardinals fans are truly as smart as they claim to be then they will know that a reset is going to result in a couple of down years. If they don’t realize that then I guess they can get mad and claim they were duped.
Well spoken gscottar. I think the fanbase will return if they see things headed in a different direction. It may not happen over night just like it didnt go down overnight. Of course there are other reasons people dont go to the ball games, its not cheap. We will see.
They only lost about 300K in ticket sales, but the overwhelming majority of those who held tickets had no desire to show up and sit thru a 3 hr. sub-par performance from a boring team that has little or no chance of winning anything worthwhile. We all saw the grandstands. There were less than 15K in attendance during most games. At any rate, it was a sad sight.
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