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BA looks at what the 2021 minor league season might look like from the fan perspective if there is no vaccine available.
“We were probably going to shatter attendance records. Now, are people going to be afraid to come to the ballpark?”
Some MiLB teams expect the fan experience to change whenever games resume.
A look at a potential new normal: https://t.co/PdLKxrE55v pic.twitter.com/1BjlfDSqa3
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) April 24, 2020
Going to a game will be a real pain in the rear. Can’t imagine people will pay for that opportunity.
This seems like the math of it. Milb just negotiated a raise in the monthly player compensation at the short season level from $290 to $400. If a team carries 25 players, that’s $400 times 16 weeks (including a month of Spring Training) times 25 players, or $160,000 for the year.
I have 2 thoughts –
1.) Is that really too much for any MLB organization to absorb?
2.) Can a town like Johnson City or State College cover it by raising ticket prices by several dollars? And/or get some more corporate sponsors?
bccran, I read somewhere recently (maybe on TCN) that the planned pay raised for minor leaguers totaled about $13 million. Then the planned cut of minor league teams saved about…you guessed it….$13 million.
Is that you call balancing the books? But your figures are right as far as they go but there are managers, coaches, food and other charges too which I guess the team owner picks up.To bccran’s questions:
1) No, it is peanuts. The total impact to each MLB organization for the minor league salary increases committed for 2021 is estimated to be approximately $1 million.
2) No. MLB organizations pay their players. Minor league teams do not.
Coincidentally, Tuesday morning, we will be running an in-depth interview I conducted with lawyer Garrett Broshuis, who is leading the minor league salary lawsuit as well as co-founded an organization called Advocates for Minor Leaguers.
Normally, I would make such content for subscribers only, but the messages are so important, I am going to make the interview free for everyone.
On my list of to-dos is an article highlighting in detail what expenses minor league teams pay and which the MLB parent covers, but to oversimplify, MLB pays for players and coaches. The minor league teams cover selling tickets and running the ballparks.
If the increase is from $290 per week per player to $400 per week per player, then that’s an increase of $110 per week per player. $110 times 50 players times 16 weeks is $88,000. That’s purely on the player side as far as the increased cost to an organization. Right? Are they talking about a ton more players than just the ones on the State College Spikes and Johnson City Cardinals final rosters?
Another article looking at the impact on several minor league teams…
The stoppage of sports has proved a threat to the future of Minor League Baseball, the teams being highly dependent on the revenue gate receipts bring. From @NoahAFrank. https://t.co/vaDHbVMa7j pic.twitter.com/E1BLYgWC7S
— Baseball Prospectus (@baseballpro) April 27, 2020
bccran asked:
Are they talking about a ton more players than just the ones on the State College Spikes and Johnson City Cardinals final rosters?
There is a disconnect here. The salary increases for 2021 are for every level of the minor leagues. The amounts vary by level.
Separately, chances are high that neither State College nor Johnson City will exist as Cardinals affiliates in 2021.
I understand that. I am only looking at the cost to the Cardinals of the increases in player compensation at State College and Johnson City. Mainly to see what delta these minor league teams would have to cover without parent organization support.
Should the salaries of the manager and coaches be added in?I am sorry, but your exercise makes no sense to me. They are not going to change the entire funding model of Minor League Baseball to try to pay players more on teams that are already in the plan to be eliminated.
All minor league teams are trying to survive 2020 with no revenue. Some are expected to not make it to next season financially. Without a vaccine readily available, fans are not going to go to minor league games in great numbers in 2021, either. The idea they could RAISE minor league ticket prices against this backdrop to augment minor league player pay is not an idea I want to spend any time on.
This is an editorial at Beyond the Boxscore that blames fans for supporting MLB ownership that has led to the minor league contraction plans. But it falls short on a tangible call to action.
New reports have the contraction of 42 Minor League Baseball teams as all but a given at this point. MLB is at fault for the gutting of baseball from America, but fans also need to wake up to their role in the proceedings and fight back. https://t.co/pDWqj93xhq
— Beyond the Box Score (@BtBScore) April 27, 2020
I don’t want to waste your valuable time, BW. And my questions were directed to all on the forum. I just know that when I go to a minor league game I pay for a seat and look at all the billboards paid for by sponsors. My question is related to the long term viability of a team like State College and Johnson City. Beyond the present problems. When things hopefully return to “normal”, what would be the incremental increase in cost without support from a parent. If any posters have an idea, please join in. If Milb low level baseball is important as a summer recreation (and economic plus to the communities over the summer), how can they cover the loss of parental support? By raising ticket prices a dollar or two in normal times? By working harder to increase sponsorship dollars? Doesn’t seem insurmountable.
Minor league team margins are very low. Another data point is the ill-fated “Dream League” that MLB proposed for the 42 teams to lose affiliation. The reason it was viewed as not feasible was the entire cost of player acquisition and pay was reportedly being shifted from MLB to the minor league owners. The latter said they could not handle that expense. Now, MLB is reportedly looking for a “sustainable model” to keep baseball going in these no-longer affiliated towns. No details yet.
It feels like you may be trying to develop such a model.
If the Gateway Grizzlies and River City Rascals can make it for many years, like a number of independent teams around the country, why can’t State College and Johnson be viable teams in normal times? Size of market?
Yes, I think the market is a big factor. Even so, River City is out of business. They have to sell something other than the players and the MLB affiliation. Affordable family fun.
Some of the 42 towns will continue with baseball in some way. But I wonder how many players will have the appetite to play in independent ball. The pay can be even less and there is no job security or clear chance for advancement that affiliated ball provides.
Have to believe that more attention will be directed by MLB to independent leagues. Especially if the number of players in the draft are reduced. Many talented high school players will go on to college. And college players who want to keep their dreams alive of playing major league ball some day will join the independent leagues.
….From Beyond the Boxscore article.
No fan deserves blame for the league becoming what it has. We allowed it to happen sure, but it should never rest with the fans to uphold a love for baseball within the ranks of MLB executives and owners. We never saw inevitable conclusion of MLB’s business first baseball
That should be the role of the Commissioner and others within the MLB ranks.
Undoubtedly, Manfred is the villain of the Houston Plan. In retrospect, State College and Johnson City never had a chance for 2020 or beyond. I detest the Commissioner for many reasons but this above all.
Things have gotten out of balance. Some players are paid $30,000,000 a year, but we can’t keep teams at the short season level afloat.
The root issue is NOT an inability to keep minor league teams afloat, nor is the issue Major League salaries.
MLB teams want to employ fewer minor league players because they believe they can implement player development more efficiently. Therefore, fewer teams are needed. The most cost efficient ones to cut are in the more remote locations and at lower levels.
As you will hear in the interview on the front page, MLB player salaries – as high as they are – have NOT kept pace with MLB revenue growth. In other words, the MLB players get a smaller percent of total revenue now than they did in the past. However, for minor leaguers, it is far, far worse. They have lost huge amounts of ground vs. both MLB revenue and inflation over time since they had no representation fighting on their behalf for regular salary increases.
I understand that, but is there no concern about what it will do to hurt the economies in those small towns? And the fans who have been loyal baseball fans for decades? Plus what it will mean for a kid who doesn’t see a chance to catch on with a low level minor league team and in high school decides to concentrate his efforts into another sport? Baseball has enough of a problem as it is with waning interest among youth. The wider spread we have teams, the more exposure baseball gets, and the more “marketing” impact it has.
I’m thinking about all those young kids in State College and
Johnson City who won’t have a chance to go to ball games anymore. As well as the other 40 towns that will lose teams.bccran, the points you make in the post just above are good ones. There have been studies that show the correlation between young fans attending games and them bonding with the sport over their lives.
I can only imagine that MLB is more concerned about maximizing profit today and assume that fans will instead follow high school or college teams. Of course, instead the displaced fans could just lose interest in baseball entirely.
We know unequivocally that MLB’s demographic continues to get older and older. Potentially limiting your pipeline of new, young fans seems just the opposite of what they should be trying to do.
Before the virus hit, over 100 members of Congress formed a committee to fight the contraction plan because of the impact of the loss of affiliated baseball on their districts. However, with everyone’s attention elsewhere, this group has not been in the news for weeks. In other words, the virus has indirectly, but significantly aided MLB’s plans.
An anecdote. I find it most puzzling that MLB states the reasons for the cuts are poor facilities and remote locations. Yet, MLB spent a lot of money in recent years improving the field in Williamsport, PA, both to boost Little League Baseball and because they play an MLB game there each summer. Yet, the minor league team in Williamsport is reportedly on the cut list. Go figure.
14NyquisT said:
I detest the Commissioner for many reasons but this above all.
I get you, but remember that while the Astros brought the contraction proposal forward, the report was that it was agreed to by the owners 30-0. So Manfred got the dirty job to make it happen.
Manfred certainly made matters worse by his talking points, which made it clear right out of the gates that he did not understand the minor leagues. He actually said that in a “lot of cases,” teams take 6-10 hour road trips to games in school buses!
I can only imagine that MLB is more concerned about maximizing profit today and assume that fans will instead follow high school or college teams. Of course, instead they could just lose interest in baseball entirely.
While the money in pro sports will always cause some to head in that direction, it’s undoubtedly going to be the case that the best athletes will choose other sports than baseball, and this decision will play some part in it. Like I’ve said before, MLB will be the #3 sport revenue wise within a few years and could fall as low as 4th or 5th in the next 20, depending on how things shake out with NHL and soccer long term.
My viewpoint is certainly not shared by all but I am of the opinion that a salary cap is needed for individual players in baseball. That’s the simple part. The hard part is establishing the rules, ie, performance factors that earn a pay raise or not. Players have a lot more to pay than agents. They must pay an income tax in those states that have an income tax based on how long they ‘worked’ in the state. Beyond just being in favor of an individual salary cap, I have no specific factors to base it on but the sky is the limit is not sustainable. Yes fans, salaries do affect ticket prices as well as the price of darn near everything in the stadium. The game can be out-priced for an average fan who would like to drive to a big league ballpark with his family and perhaps watch a series, stay in a decent lodging and have some goodies to eat and drink at the ballpark without having to make a bank loan. I know, I know we live in a capitalist society where the rule is ‘whatever the market will bear’ but a market can be killed by that rule too. My beloved NASCAR is in the middle of it now and trying to fight back with changes to the sport but baseball does not react that quick. Okay, soapbox down. Vent over. PLAY BALL (please)
Well, the focus here is minor league pay, not MLB, but many professional sports use the measure of player pay as a percentage of team revenue as a fairness gauge. If you cap player pay as a percentage of total team revenue, I get it. But on the other hand, if you cap player pay to a specific dollar amount, then owners increase their take at the expense of players. That is how minor league salaries got so bad. It happened gradually over time as revenues far outstripped the relatively meager increases. Of course, MLB has a union that would not let that happen.
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