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…help the team play better in Sept…”I’ll tell you that.”
I wonder how Ollie might explain September’s 12-15 record.
Tony LaRussa was 27-27 in his first year of managing (ChiSox) and then came right back the following season to post an abysmal 70-90 record. Yet his team’s powers that be, saw something in Tony and kept him around awhile. Red Schoendienst inherited a world championship squad in his first year of managing and then proceeded to direct his Cardinals squad to a losing season (80-81). Yet his team’s powers that be, saw something in Red and kept him around awhile. Oh and get this one……Whitey Herzog, in his managerial debut, led his Texas Rangers squad to a ridiculously hideous mark of 47-91 in 1973. Yet his team’s powers that be, saw something in Whitey and kept him around awhile. As hard as this may be to believe, I bet the majority of our board here will be in Oli’s corner by season’s end…….with Bobby Reed quite possibly being one of Oli’s greatest supporters.
He’ll now be locked up through the 2026 campaign, not only offering the team some stability but avoiding the lame-duck status that would have him.
That quote is from the linked article at the start of this ‘Olí extended’ thread. The writer doesn’t know much about the press corp that follows baseball.
If the club is losing more than they are winning, the boo birds will be out, and Olí will be blamed, and fired.
Skippy learned from one of the best. In any event, what could possibly be the advantage of revealing your hole card prior to when’s necessary?
Folks on social media are overwhelmingly against the extension. When I checked, it was 89% against and 11% for. While that may not be a representative sample, the message from this group is very clear.
Do you like or dislike of the #STLCards contract extension of Oli Marmol?
— Tim McKernan (@tmckernan) March 18, 2024
Rating a manager is tough for fans because we probably don’t see 85-90% of what they do. They’re very likely to side with a Manager when the record shows good results and against the Manager when it doesn’t.
I’ve said this before, but I think it bares repeating. I think Marmol is a good tactical manager. And at the same time, I think Marmol was 100% the wrong person to lead the team last season. His personality was not what the Cardinals needed last season. However, I’m willing to commit that I think he’s actually almost exactly the right manager for this year’s team. I know that sounds a little ridiculous given that so many of the guys are the same. But the situation is completely different. Last year we were supposed to win and win easily. So last year, we needed a steady presence who was wise and not temperamental. Someone with lots of experience who had been through all the little hiccups before. Someone who could mentor rookies, easily lean on veterans, and ultimately achieve what we were supposed to achieve anyway. Someone who could respectfully tell Adam his career was probably over. Someone who had already been there and done that. But not this year. No, this year we need someone who is scrappy as is willing to fight like heck for each win. We need a leader who is irritated with what we got last year and wants to force that result to change. We need someone who has a chip on their shoulder because they feel this team underachieved and who won’t let that happen again. I think Marmol is that person. And I feel so much better about having him at the helm than I did going into last season.
Easy call for Skip. Four of his top SP’s are injured. SP5 was supposed to be a competition, but it turned into the SP1 role.
It’s Luzardo opening day, if he doesn’t go IL too. Skips decision is based on availability, and it’s thin.I definitely think there is some logic in not wanting a lame duck manager because if the team gets off to a slow start, which is a possibility for the Cardinals given their difficult opening weeks of the schedule, then people start pointing fingers at the lame duck manager and start talking about Yadi and things could spiral out of control.
Having said that, if the the Cardinals knew all along that Oli was going to be their long term guy, as Mo suggested last week, then why not do the extension in November instead of March? Maybe they were just too focused on signing old pitchers back then. I think the real truth is that this lame duck issue didn’t really sink in to the front office until recently so they just now got around to addressing it.
I don’t expect Yadi as manager in STL until Mo is gone, if at all. Yadi would be TLR like, the opposite of Mo’s past three manager hires. Mo inherited TLR.
So do you think hiring Yadi as special assistant to the PBO was just a ceremonial gesture to appease the fans?
No idea what they have cooked up. Maybe Bill kept Yadi off the market so he wouldn’t have to see a red jacket guy wearing cubbie blue and white.
My main issue has been why Oli was hired in the first place. His highest managerial job had been at the high A level. Is that the credential you anticipate of someone chosen to lead one of the storied franchises in the history of Major League Baseball?
If they wanted to keep it inside the organization, the obvious choice was Stubby, who had led AAA Memphis to the highest level any Cardinals AAA team had ever achieved.
Doubt Stubby would be as compliant as Oli. He might too, have had philosophical differences.
An aside:
Whatever the philosophical differences between Shildt and the FO were, it appears Shildt was right.
Mistake to move on due to someone with a bowtie having thin skin.
“As hard as this may be to believe, I bet the majority of our board here will be in Oli’s corner by season’s end…….with Bobby Reed quite possibly being one of Oli’s greatest supporters.”
Pugs, I’ve always felt you have a great sense of humor. This confirms it, in spades.
“Folks on social media are overwhelmingly against the extension. When I checked, it was 89% against and 11% for.”
I suspect the 11% are all friends and relatives of Taylor Motter.
“If they wanted to keep it inside the organization, the obvious choice was Stubby, who had led AAA Memphis to the highest level any Cardinals AAA team had ever achieved.”
Twice.
“Rating a manager is tough for fans because we probably don’t see 85-90% of what they do. They’re very likely to side with a Manager when the record shows good results and against the Manager when it doesn’t.”
Very true. It isn’t always easy to grade a manager. But that doesn’t always mean that it’s difficult.
I bet on sorts. All the time, with more success that failure. And have done so since the 1980’s. And here’s how I view managers.
Do they exceed reasonable expectations (Vegas over/under line), or do they fall short? And allowances have to be made for extenuating circumstances like significant injuries to prominent pitchers & position players, as well as meaningful trade deadline moves.
Well, Ollie’s first Cardinal team beat the Vegas number by 4 wins and his second team fell short by 13 wins. Neither team lost much to injuries, but the first squad gained 23 incredible starts from the combo of Monty and Quintana over the final two months — combined ERA just over 2.50. That’s a huge extenuating circumstance.
So despite only positive extenuating circumstances, Marmol overall won 9 games fewer than reasonable expectations across two seasons. That’s very poor. (And of course he thoroughly bungled one of two playoff games.)
That’s how I see his tenure.
One metric I look at in a manager is whether his teams tend to run over or under their pythagorean record. Still too early in Ollie’s career with only two seasons, but he ran even last year and was two games under in 2022.
Long term managers will have seasons going both ways, but my admittedly non-compiled information indicates some guys have quite a few more seasons of being over the pythag number than under.
Looking at two Cardinal mangers using only their full seasons as manager, Mike Matheny went 2-4; that is two seasons his teams exceeded their “expected” record based on runs scored versus runs allowed, and four seasons they fell under their expected record.
Whitey Herzog’s tenure was spectacular, 7-0-1. His teams beat their expected record in seven of his eight full seasons, and matched the expectation once. And I did not count the 1981 split season, but that club beat expectations as well.
Whitey relied on speed, defense and bullpens, maximizing his home park’s characteristics. He employed the squeeze play now and then. Makes sense his teams would win their share of close ones.
I just now became aware of these two set of numbers. In 2022 the current Cardinal manager’s W/L record in 1 run games was 26-17. In 2023 his W/L record in 1 run games was the mirror opposite 17-26. I’d have to say that a career .500 record in 1 run games is entirely acceptable for a field manager. I’ll also acknowledge that I’m a bit harsh on the little guy at times. I also have to say that the thing I most dislike about him is the inane things he says. I think I’d probably like him better if he didn’t talk.
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