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Correction on the above I think Dohm will be in A+ after looking closer as I read my local predictions wrong. I think Molina and Aita would get the push to AA over Dohm with as few IP as he had and not performing as well in A+ with the Cardinals.
STL
1 – Mathew Liberatore (L)
2 – Dustin May
3 – Michael McGreevy
4 – Richard Fitts
5 – Hunter Dobbins or Andre Pallante or Kyle Leahy (non SP 2 to the pen)Memphis (AAA)
1 – Quinn Mathews (L)
2 – Ixan Henderson (L)
3 – Brycen Mautz (L)
4 – Tink Hence / Sem Robberse piggyback
5 – Pete Hansen (L)5 man rotation with 1 spot being a piggyback so 6 SP
Springfield (AA)
1 – Chen-Wei Lin
2 – Hancel Rincon
3 – Mason Molina (L)
4 – Blake Aita
5 – Brandt ThompsonTraditional 5 man rotation
Peoria (A+)
1 – Liam Doyle (L)
2 – Tanner Franklin
3 – Braden Davis (L)
4 – Brandon Clarke (L) / Frank Elissalt piggyback
5 – Nate Dohm
6 – Leonel SeguaraA 6 man rotation with one spot being a piggyback so 7 SP total
Palm Beach (A)
1 – Cade Crossland (L)
2 – Yoiker Fajardo
3 – Andrew Dutkanych
4 – Tyler Van Dyke
5 – Ethan Young
6 – Brian Holiday / Payton Graham piggybackA 6 man rotation with one spot being a piggyback so 7 SP total
After typing those out, I think the smarter move would be to have 1 of Dobbins, Pallante, Leahy in AAA in the rotation to stay stretched out for depth. That would then mean Hansen back to AA and then Brandt Thompson likely to the AA pen.
STL, Memphis, Peoria, and Palm Beach are very heavy in competition. Oddly enough, Springfield feels weak to me without as much competition as most 2025 AA pitchers should be moved to AAA, but hardly any of the 25 A+ pitchers feel very deserving of a promotion which leaves Springfield kind of with a gap.
A note, but I hope to see Doyle get 130 IP between A+ (likely briefly there, AA, and potentially a couple AAA weeks). He had 99 innings last year between college and minors and hopefully he can add on 30 to get to 130 and then 27 take on a full season 160 IP (yeah 160 is a full work load in modern baseball).
They have hired all of these minor-league coaches, instructors, etc. did they hire a Director of throw strikes and stop walking so many guys?
Many guys being higher BB% isn’t that concerning to me. Command and control take time to develop. If you go pull up most MLB ace pages who have great walk rates, they still had 10-15 BB% in the minors and were elevated their first couple of MLB seasons. What you want to see is that these guys are making progress to improve to their control.
GettingPeete also makes me feel a bit better about the return. Very young, with speed and maybe potential power.
Ledbetter is 24 already. He should head to AA with Levenson already established and Cho on the way. The pitching depth is dramatically improved, but this tightens the outfield competition significantly.
Cjinte going to AA doesn’t change a lot in my opinion for the minors rotations. The impact is that Brandt Thompson or someone like him doesn’t get a AA spot. AA was the weakest rotation in the system in terms of guys who should be at that level.
Hopefully Mathews gets to ST firing strikes! And can make the Cards at some point this year. Mautz is definitely a decent probability too which could open spots.
Because of giving up Contreras and Gray, I’d put a Buffalo nickel on Fitts and Dobbins (assuming health) to be in the 2026 SP rotation to start.
I agree with your adjustment ATM. A 40man guy (Dobbins) in AAA for double-headers, etc. is better available depth to start the season.
T best thing about all the pitching prospects we’ve acquired is that we don’t have to rush anyone. I’m excited about Memphis pitching. They have arms like Mathew’s, Henderson, and Mautz only good performances away from being in the Lou in July or a September call up.
With the injury to Henderson one could guess that Memphis rotation would be Mautz, Mathews, Rajcic, possibly Hence if he is still used as a starter, eventually Dobbins, maybe Rembersse until Hendersons comes back.
With Henderson out most likely to start the year, I would prefer Hansen get the SP opportunity over Rajcic with Rajcic in the pen. I’m not a Hansen fan but he deserves a spot more than Rajcic
I expect Hansen to be in the AAA rotation and stay in it until and unless he pitches himself out of it. No, I don’t think he will be great, but he seems now able to answer the bell decently and not get lit up too much, usually keeping his team in it. Very similar to how McGreevy was a lot of the time coming up. But each level is a new challenge, and he has to do it in AAA now. I feel 100% sure he will get the chance.
Bling I neglected to add Hansen. He should be at AAA. He has an upside of an innings eater at AAA or a # 5 starter. With Henderson out, this seems likely.
Hansen is the kind of guy a team needs. Not flashy, doesn’t light up the radar gun, doesn’t rank high on prospect lists, etc… He just answers the bell and gets outs.
But best case scenario for him, he has a John King like career. I don’t see even #8 starter as a potential option. He likely ends up as the 12th bullpen guy who rides the Memphis shuttle.
That may be true if we are assuming all of the prospect darlings stay healthy and productive. Big if though.
I wouldn’t predict where Hansen will be after a year in the AAA rotation. He could pitch his way out of the future rotation picture or into it. Similar to McGreevy’s path. In his case that path veered upward.
That’s fair. We will see. However, McGreevey was always seen as someone who would land between a 3/4/5/6 starter. I’d say he now looks like a 3/4/5 starter so he’s trended a bit up. Hansen has never had that kind of projection. His 90th percentile outcome was around a 5/6 starter. Now he’s getting older and hasn’t pitched yet at AAA. That’s why I feel the good version of Hansen is probably what the good version of John King was. 2-3 years as a solid long reliever. More likely he’s an up and down shuttle guy for a pen.
If Fittsis sent to Memphis to start, this changes projections on their rotation. To start the year, it would appear the Henderson and Dobbins likely would be rehabbing in April. Mathews, Fitts, Mautz, Hence (if still starting), Hansen, Rajcic seem possibly to be 4/starters for now. Maybe Rembersse as the 5th. But i see a good chance that Rembersse and Rajcic eventually moved to relief.
27 – If Fitts or another one of our 6 starters begins in Memphis), look for them to have 6 starters for Memphis to start the year. Fitts, Mautz, Matthews, Shuster, probably Hansen, and probably Zimmerman. Those last 2 are fillers for Henderson & Dobbins with Zimmerman being the first to get bumped. Hence is a reliever now. So is Rajcic. Robberse is still recovering and he should be back after Henderson and Dobbins. Hjerpe is the other wild card, but he won’t be ready until May or June I think.
I don’t think we’ll see a 6 man rotation at Memphis. I think we’ll see piggyback tandems at the class A teams though.
I find that they typically keep 6 at every level (more sometimes in low levels where they piggyback). The 6th starter then doesn’t always get a start every go-around. They are more like a long reliever who sometimes starts just to give more rest on occasion to others who may or may not be dealing with something. But who knows? It’s a different era now. I personally would like to see more piggybacking and less defined starters.
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