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Memphis should be fun to for all of the top pitching prospects on the team. Henderson, Mathew’s, Mautz, possibly Hence at some point as a reliever or starter. Love and Gastelum in relief with Memphis shuttler Granillo. Raquets AAA test will be interesting.
Peoria will be interesting too. Adding Clarke to a potential top prospect staff. Of course, injuries will decide the roster. I hope we don’t have to deal with injuries like this year.
And what will Remberses role be? If healthy does he get another chance to start. There is his health issue obviously, but I thought I read a BA article part of which thought he might transition well to the pen. Racjuc could do that as well. If Racjic ticks up a few mphs he could be more valuable in relief.
Matthews will be at Memphis. But he needs to tick up a few MPH, also, and throw like he did in 2024. If he doesn’t, he could drop 10 spots in the Community ranking next offseason.
I’m just now looking this topic up. Does Mathews-Doyle-Mautz-Henderson-Hansen sound about right for Memphis?
If they’re healthy, I assume Mathews, Mautz and Henderson are sure things.
Wouldn’t you be surprised if Doyle starts at Triple-A? I would. There are also the incumbents Rajcic and Bedell to consider, perhaps competing with Hansen for the end of the rotation.
Plus, we don’t know what happens with Leahy if he looks good starting but comes out of camp as #6. Would they send him to Memphis to keep him starting or move him back to relief? I would be tempted to do the former as they are going to need starting depth and innings. He is the only MLB-tested name in this entire mix.
Then, of course, there are potential trades coming that hopefully will bring new starting pitchers into the picture. We can’t predict that, but if any are MLB ready, Pallante could be bumped back down to Triple-A, likely taking a rotation spot.
It will be good to potentially have choices a year after three of the Memphis starters were non-prospects signed as minor league free agents to cover for all the injuries.
I’m still holding out hope they resign and throw Curtis Taylor into that mix as well.
After trades this winter and before the deadline he could be a decent add to the rotation after a trade or injury. I like that option over rushing a younger prospect.
There was an old poster named Easton a decade ago or so who used to argue there is no reason to have a pitcher like Mathews use innings at AAA or AA if that pitcher can get big leaguers out.
His arguement was that each player must go through struggles at each level, and you only have a finite number of years and innings to get there.
For this reason a pitcher like Mathews should be in the MLB rotation making adjustments asap because they have to occur before he can ascend to the next level of competence.
I support the old school method as we did with Liberatore first out of the pen then into the rotation, but it is hard to argue with McGreevey ‘s developmental plan, too.
I would place Hence, Hjerpe, and Roby all in the pen for the entirety of 2026 and advance each to the highest level they can get batters out at with the sole intention of getting value now.I would place Hence, Hjerpe, and Roby all in the pen for the entirety of 2026 and advance each to the highest level they can get batters out at with the sole intention of getting value now.
Roby is out for the season, but I agree as to Hence and Hjerpe.
Would it make sense to have a thread, maybe even one at the top(pinned), for “minors injury updates/progress?”
They seem to pop up in various threads, but that could be helpful? Just a random idea.
Example, anything we see regarding what is going on with Hence would be worth while, especially while we basically only have the MILB to root for the next 22 months.
Agree on Hence and Hjerpe BB, but with all of the LHSPers in the top 25 even, I don’t think that’s a good move with Roby just yet. Unfortunately that’s not an issue until 2027.
Sure, good idea, CFICT. Please go ahead and start one.
Unfortunately, Hence is not coming to Winter Warm-Up so we can’t ask him directly until spring. But the reality has been that no one has been straight about his situation, anyway. Personally, I won’t believe anything until I see it on the field.
I’m all for that idea, CFICT. A thread like that would keep all the reports, and the relevant comments, all in one place where people could easily keep track of ‘minors injury updates/progress’.
Disclaimer that this idea is for rookie leagues, PB and Peoria, not SPR and Memphis.
There are many “potential starters” in the Cards organization and likely more will be added.
Out of 5-6?rotation spots, the top 4 at each level, considered to be top prospects get their normal starts.
The other spot has 3 ”starters”, STRICTLY get 3 innings each, so they would know going in that they are “the starter”, aka innings (1-3), another in the 4th-6th and 7th-9th. Then rotate what 3 innings each week perhaps.Regardless of them having 9 pitches or 60, that way they all can warm up/prepare normally as if they were in a SP role.
They can figure out more about who is a true SP and who gets a few extra ticks and is better in shorter stints and can turn into a great RP.Well the minors starting slots gets even more interesting with the acquisitions of Dobbins, Fajardo, and Aita. Dobbins is not guaranteed an MLB spot and may end up in AAA. Fajardo will almost surely stay in the rotation. Aita may also, but I’m not sure he is much of a real prospect so maybe they do not prioritize him getting a rotation spot.
I think the pitchers added through trades make for more competition, which is good. It seems like a piggyback rotation likely, especially in Palm Beach and Peoria. And I would think Dobbins is in the STL rotation. Did I read that had a knee injury?
And the whole pitching staff in Memphis as a whole will have great depth. Henderson, Mautz, Mathew’s, and perhaps Hence in the rotation, and a probable bulllpen with Granillo, Gastulem, Love, Watson, Skales (who I am not that excited about out, but has potential) and Raquet.I would hope Hansen gets a real shot with Memphis as well. He deserves it. He is one of those guys that just gets the job done despite “not having good enough stuff.”
Somebody will get their chain jerked having to piggyback behind Hence instead of being worked as a starter should be. Maybe it will be Hansen, since his stuff doesn’t light up the computer.
I wonder if we are underestimating the odds of Mathews winning a rotation spot. I know he didn’t have a great year, but Mathews is a competitor. He works very hard and seems to have a great bull dog mentality of not letting things get to him. I expect he will be spending the off-season getting very familiar with the MLB baseball to improve his command and ensure his mechanics are in check.
Mathews has much higher upside than the other arms we potentially we will have in the rotation and I still think he has #2 upside. I don’t love the guys Bloom acquired for 26 rotation either for upside other than May, but that is just a short term arrangement. Liberatore I think has #2/#3 type upside, but after that McGreevy is most likely a dependable #3/4 who provides bulk innings. I see Pallante, Leahy, Fitts, and Dobbins more as #4/#5 type guys and would give someone with more upside a shot over any of them.
Mathews is a competitor
He also hurt his shoulder and has not been the same since he came back. He may or may not regain his control and have the same stuff, but he was no better at the end of the season that he was when he resumed pitching. He will be giving it another try in Memphis. Hope for the best.
I am excited for our depth in the minors starting rotations, but I would like more impact starters. I think Doyle, Mathew’s, Clarke, and even Roby could be something special. But when you trade for class A level starters there is risk they won’t develop at higher levels. But on a positive note, we could have surprises like Davis. Also, we could see players return positively from injuries.
Here is way too much effort into trying to understand the minors rotations for this next year. I break down each potential SP’s basic info along with their prior season’s stats to give some context on their year. The intent here is to see if what level each pitcher should be at, so when tracking most stats, it will be Highest Level which is their stats at that level in 2025 as that determines if they should be moving up or not. Highest Level IP is a cumulative stat though of their total innings pitched at that level in their career to get context on how long they have been there. I’m specifically not looking at lower levels as those aren’t relevant for if a pitcher needs a promotion. I say that with the exception of innings pitched in 2025 (25 IP) as that is interesting to see how many innings each guy has thrown and can move up to for next year.
Starting off with just a large table of information and then later on I can break down where I think each pitcher will go.
EDIT: This doesn’t display well as it is too wide, but I can potentially share the raw Sheets, but I can go with this unless people want the actual table.
+--------------------------------------------------+---------------------------------------------------+ | | Highest Level | +-------------------+---+-----+-----+------+-------+-------+------+------+------+------+--------+------+ | Player | T | Age | Lvl | Role | 25 IP | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | SwStr% | GB% | +-------------------+---+-----+-----+------+-------+-------+------+------+------+------+--------+------+ | Mathew Liberatore | L | 26 | MLB | SP | 151.2 | 334.0 | 4.21 | 4.03 | 18.8 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 37.4 | | Dustin May | R | 28 | MLB | SP | 132.1 | 324.0 | 4.96 | 4.88 | 21.1 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 42.2 | | Andre Pallante | R | 27 | MLB | SP | 162.2 | 460.0 | 5.31 | 4.68 | 15.5 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 59.1 | | Richard Fitts | R | 26 | MLB | SP | 75.0 | 65.2 | 5.00 | 5.80 | 20.5 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 43.6 | | Michael McGreevy | R | 25 | MLB | SP | 170.2 | 118.2 | 4.42 | 4.27 | 14.5 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 47.3 | | Kyle Leahy | R | 29 | MLB | RP | 88.0 | 138.1 | 3.07 | 3.04 | 22.0 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 43.8 | | Gordon Graceffo | R | 26 | MLB | RP | 88.1 | 50.2 | 6.28 | 2.93 | 20.7 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 44.9 | | Hunter Dobbins | R | 26 | MLB | SP | 78.2 | 61.0 | 4.13 | 3.87 | 17.6 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 48.4 | +-------------------+---+-----+-----+------+-------+-------+------+------+------+------+--------+------| | Quinn Mathews | L | 25 | AAA | SP | 99.0 | 110.2 | 3.93 | 4.51 | 25.4 | 17.5 | 14.1 | 47.2 | | Tekoah Roby | R | 24 | AAA | SP | 78.1 | 31.1 | 4.02 | 4.01 | 22.6 | 6.0 | 13.3 | 44.7 | | Sem Robberse | R | 24 | AAA | SP | 14.2 | 144.1 | 7.36 | 4.52 | 24.7 | 10.4 | 15.2 | 46.8 | | Max Rajcic | R | 24 | AAA | SP | 118.0 | 45.0 | 4.96 | 5.08 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 36.3 | | Ian Bedell | R | 26 | AAA | SP | 52.0 | 95.0 | 7.96 | 6.24 | 20.7 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 36.5 | | Alex Cornwell | L | 27 | AAA | RP | 92.2 | 108.0 | 5.92 | 4.81 | 16.7 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 53.9 | +-------------------+---+-----+-----+------+-------+-------+------+------+------+------+--------+------| | Brycen Mautz | L | 24 | AA | SP | 114.2 | 114.2 | 2.98 | 3.58 | 28.6 | 7.1 | 12.8 | 41.2 | | Ixan Henderson | L | 24 | AA | SP | 132.0 | 132.0 | 2.59 | 3.16 | 25.2 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 37.1 | | Tink Hence | R | 23 | AA | SP | 10.2 | 144.2 | 4.22 | 3.73 | 33.3 | 14.3 | 15.0 | 40.9 | | Liam Doyle | L | 22 | AA | SP | 99.1 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 16.7 | 60.0 | | Chen Wei-Lin | R | 24 | AA | SP | 50.1 | 9.2 | 9.31 | 4.80 | 41.7 | 18.8 | 12.0 | 50.0 | | Cooper Hjerpe | L | 25 | AA | SP | 0.0 | 14.2 | | | | | | | | Pete Hansen | L | 25 | AA | SP | 137.1 | 137.1 | 3.93 | 3.65 | 21.1 | 6.3 | 12.1 | 46.2 | | Hancel Rincon | R | 24 | AA | SP | 96.1 | 47.1 | 3.61 | 2.88 | 29.8 | 6.6 | 14.5 | 41.9 | | Brandt Thompson | R | 24 | AA | SP | 9.0 | 9.0 | 1.00 | 3.34 | 15.6 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 37.5 | | Ryan Murphy | R | 26 | AA | SP | 19.1 | 164.1 | 3.86 | 5.50 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 51.1 | +-------------------+---+-----+-----+------+-------+-------+------+------+------+------+--------+------| | Tanner Franklin | R | 22 | A+ | SP | 44.2 | 4.0 | 2.25 | 5.41 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 13.1 | 55.6 | | Nate Dohm | R | 23 | A+ | SP | 75.0 | 46.2 | 3.24 | 3.67 | 27.9 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 40.6 | | Brandon Clarke | L | 23 | A+ | SP | 38.0 | 28.1 | 5.08 | 4.17 | 31.2 | 18.1 | 14.8 | 62.5 | | Braden Davis | L | 23 | A+ | SP | 110.1 | 36.2 | 2.21 | 2.81 | 33.6 | 15.4 | 17.3 | 28.2 | | Mason Molina | L | 23 | A+ | SP | 95.2 | 49.0 | 3.10 | 3.62 | 30.1 | 10.9 | 15.3 | 40.0 | | Jose Davila | R | 23 | A+ | SP | 98.0 | 98.0 | 6.06 | 5.03 | 19.4 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 45.3 | | Darlin Saladin | R | 23 | A+ | RP | 94.2 | 157.2 | 4.85 | 4.38 | 19.8 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 48.2 | | Frank Elissalt | R | 24 | A+ | SP | 66.0 | 15.1 | 5.59 | 4.65 | 14.3 | 19.0 | 7.1 | 39.3 | | Jason Savacool | R | 24 | A+ | SP | 102.1 | 46.1 | 4.66 | 4.38 | 22.6 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 48.1 | | Blake Aita | R | 23 | A+ | SP | 115.1 | 64.1 | 3.78 | 4.61 | 20.9 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 38.9 | | Gerardo Salas | R | 23 | A+ | RP | 96.2 | 96.2 | 8.10 | 5.05 | 20.3 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 41.2 | +-------------------+---+-----+-----+------+-------+-------+------+------+------+------+--------+------| | Yoiker Fajardo | R | 19 | A | SP | 72.0 | 51.1 | 2.98 | 2.50 | 28.8 | 9.4 | 15.0 | 50.3 | | Leonel Seguera | R | 20 | A | SP | 108.0 | 146.0 | 4.33 | 3.45 | 20.9 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 50.8 | | Andew Dutkanych | R | 22 | A | SP | 17.2 | 14.1 | 2.51 | 4.52 | 35.6 | 16.9 | 10.9 | 46.4 | | Tyler Van Dyke | R | 22 | A | SP | 61.1 | 14.0 | 2.57 | 3.40 | 21.8 | 5.5 | 11.1 | 43.6 | | Jacob Odle | R | 22 | A | SP | 51.2 | 43.0 | 6.28 | 3.99 | 27.7 | 17.9 | 14.9 | 41.7 | | Nelfy Ynfante | R | 21 | A | SP | 90.0 | 103.1 | 4.60 | 4.42 | 20.3 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 43.5 | | Alec Willis | R | 23 | A | RP | 0.0 | 2.0 | | | | | | | | Keiverson Ramirez | R | 20 | A | SP | 41.1 | 11.0 | 2.45 | 4.46 | 8.3 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 51.9 | | Nolan Sparks | R | 23 | A | SP | 72.1 | 87.2 | 4.85 | 4.54 | 24.1 | 14.2 | 10.7 | 43.4 | | Bernard Mack | L | 20 | A | SP | 50.0 | 13.2 | 2.63 | 5.52 | 27.9 | 23.0 | 12.5 | 39.3 | | Ruben Menes | R | 24 | A | SP | 37.0 | 8.0 |14.63 | 7.92 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 32.3 | | Yadiel Batista | L | 22 | A | RP | 74.2 | 27.2 | 6.18 | 4.70 | 20.0 | 7.3 | 16.7 | 40.2 | +-------------------+---+-----+-----+------+-------+-------+------+------+------+------+--------+------| | Cade Crossland | L | 22 | Col | SP | | 68.1 | | | | | | | | Brian Holiday | R | 23 | Col | SP | | 0.0 | | | | | | | | Ethan Young | R | 22 | Col | RP | | 70.1 | | | | | | | | Payton Graham | R | 22 | Col | SP | | 5.0 | | | | | | | +-------------------+---+-----+-----+------+-------+-------+------+------+------+------+--------+------+Here are my predictions and I’ll follow up with actual rotations in another post. Note this all is going to be very wrong as players will show in ST where they really belong and have progressed. Many things could change and the MLB rotation changes impact what happens between AAA and AA. There will also be multiple injuries that happen and even some of the recovering guys like Holiday and Graham may not be ready by Opening Day.
Injured
Tekoah Roby – AAA – Minors full season injured list
Cooper Hjerpe – AA – Minors 60 day ILThe easiest two to get done are the two players who are for sure out to start the year. Tekoah Roby won’t pitch in 2026 most likely unless it is a couple of innings of rehab in Palm Beach. Cooper Hjerpe I don’t expect back until June so he will likely start on the 60 day minors IL
Confident
Quinn Matthews – AAA – SP
Ixan Henderson – AAA – SP
Brycen Mautz – AAA – SP
Chen-Wei Lin – AA – SP
Hancel Rincon – AA – SP
Liam Doyle – A+ – SP
Andrew Dutkanych – A – SP
Cade Crossland – A – SPAlex Cornwell – AAA – RP
Darlin Saladin – A+ – RP
Gerardo Salas – A+ – RPWhile I think Quinn deserves a very good shot at getting the SP5 role out of Spring Training since he is a competitor, I think he most likely starts at AAA. Ixan and Mautz deserve promotions to AAA and will get it. Lin needs to stay at AA to get some more time there and will be there to star the year. Rincon did well in his time at AA, but there is simply too much competition at AAA and Rincon could use more AA time. Doyle I am pretty sure despite getting a cup of coffee in AA will be starting the year in A+ to get started as that is a more appropriate level for a college pitcher. Dutkanych needs to stay in A to get more reps and I expect Crossland will be assigned to A as well.
Cornwell, Saladin, and Salas all were in the pen at the end of the year and I expect them to stay there.
Fairly Confident
Tink Hence – AAA – SP Piggyback
Braden Davis – A+ – SP
Tanner Franklin – A+ – SP
Brandon Clarke – A+ – SP Piggyback
Ethan Young – A – SP
Payton Graham – A – SP Piggyback
Ty Van Dyke – A – SPMax Rajcic – AAA – RP
Ian Bedell – AAA – RP
Ryan Murphy – AAA – RP
Alec Willis – A – RP
Yadiel Batista – A – RPHence will be in AAA if he is healthy, but the only uncertainty is his role. I expect him to be a SP despite my own desires and the orgs comments about moving him to the pen as being a SP gives him more reps although I expect it to be in a piggy back role. Davis most likely will get more reps at A+, although there is a chance they push him to AA as AA I see a gap and A+ is absolutely loaded. Franklin most likely goes to A+ with Doyle to start the year. Clarke I expect to stay a A+ to get more time there and work with the org but with a piggyback due to competition and his build up from an injury return. Young should most likely be built up enough with 70 IP last year to be a full time A SP while Graham was hurt with only 5 IP and I expect to be a SP piggyback. Van Dyke I expect to stay in A as well.
Bedell and Rajcic I expect most likely go to the AAA pen as they haven’t done well as SP. Murphy I also expect to the AAA pen in his org debug. Willis has spent so much time injured and is getting older and I expect him to be in the pen in A. Batista was pitching out of the pen some and with the competition I expect him to stay there in A.
50/50
Pete Hansen – AAA – SP
Sem Robberse – AAA – SP Piggyback
Brandt Thompson – AA – SP
Mason Molina – AA – SP
Blake Aita – AA – SP
Frank Ellisalt – A+ – SP Piggyback
Brian Holiday – A – SP Piggyback
Yoiker Fajardo – A – SP
Bernard Mack – FCL – SPJason Savacool – A+ – RP
Nolan Sparks – A+ – RP
Jose Davila – A+ – RP
Nelfy Ynfante – A+ – RPHansen is borderline on if he will get promoted partially due to the competition of AAA spots. I am projecting him as SP#5 in Memphis with Hence / Robberse in a piggy back role to build up innings. Brandt Thompson was a low round draft pick, but he has done well so far and the team has been aggressive with him in AA where I see the competition being weaker for a rotation spot. Molina and Aita both don’t have a very high volume of A+ innings, but both are college guys who also benefit from A+ having a very crowded picture while AA is lacking in SP candidates. Elissalt doesn’t have a high volume of innings and needs more progression and they may build him into a SP role with him piggybacking off Clarke. I see something similar with Holiday if healthy (main reason on 50/50) where he piggybacks with Graham in A ball. Fajardo is close to deserving of a promotion, but with the competition at A+ and being new to the org, I think he may stay in A ball, but if not he is in A+ instead of Seguara. Mack started some, but I expect at 20 they may keep him in extended ST and let him pitch some in the FCL before promoting him to A again maybe in a RP role.
Savacool, Davila, and Sparks have not been very impressive in SP roles, and with the new acquisitions I think they are the candidates who will move to RP. Ynfante pitched half his games in relief this year and with the competition I see him primarily coming out of the pen.
Low Confidence
Nate Dohm – AA – SP
Leonel Seguara – A+ – SP
Keiverson Ramirez – FCL – SPJacob Odle – A+ – RP
Ruben Menes – A – RPDohm is interesting in that he did perform well in A+ for New York, but not with STL. I think given the competition though at A+ he gets moved up to AA as he is a college guy who they may be more aggressive with, but I am not confident on it. Seguara I think may get the bump to A+ as he has spent plenty of time in A, but his performance wasn’t overwhelming and Fajardo may get the nod instead despite quite a few less innings. Ramirez I am unsure what the org does as he only has a few A starts and they may let him go back to extended ST and FCL for a few starts.
Odle has fantastic stuff and I don’t like projecting him to RP as he needs more of a shot at SP and is still only 22, although maybe he could be a piggyback SP in A+. Menes is going to be 24 and with the org roster limit needing spots trimmed at the start of the season, I think there is a chance he gets the cut as he hasn’t performed well, but before they do that I think they let him pitch RP in A ball.
EDIT: Post note, but I think I am probably over confident by one level on each of these. I would most likely move each one down a tier with the low confidence being unsure, 50/50 to low, fairly to 50/50, and confident to fairly confident
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