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This time of year i like to think ahead of what rotatiins might look like, so here goes:
Memphis
Mathew’s
Henderson
Mautz
Rajcic
HansenSpringfield
Rincon
Hence
Hjerpe (at some point)
Doyle
Winquest
LinPeoria
Ellisalt
Dohm
Molina
Davis
Franklin
SaladinPalm Beach
Young
Thompson
Dutkanych
Sequera
Odle
BatistaA pretty good looking group. And I have not included many 2025 draft picks.
Quick note: The TCN’s # 45 selection Ty Van Dyke is penciled for a rotation piece at Palm Beach. Kyle had him at #33. 22y.o. 6’2″ 10th Rd.’25
Thanks NyQuist. I am sure I missed others. It I feel like injuries will affect the selections as well. I like Van Dyke. We seem to have a lot of relievers turning into starters in the last draft. It’s usually the opposite, but I like the strategy
Always a fun exercise. Thanks for “starting” it. A few quick initial thoughts.
If Hence is healthy, a big IF, wouldn’t he be at Memphis? It might block Hansen from advancing.
I would be surprised to see Thompson sent all the way back to Palm Beach. He had a brief Springfield debut. Peoria seems a certainty to me.
How long do they stay with Odle?
Crossland and Brian Holiday also have to be at PB, IMO. And Van Dyke has already been mentioned.
One of my first questions of the spring is going to be if they will be considering tandems.
I wonder too if Hence is getting his last shot at starting. I would think the FO would be wanting to get a return before his options run out. And yes Odles future is probably in the bullpen.
Nice to see the pitching organized. If a good share of the potential is realized, the St. Louis fan base is going to be loving Cardinal baseball again.
Ny, please look at the Memphis names and identify who you would remove from the projected rotation for Hence.
Here is my logic. Matthews is clearly the #1. Henderson and Mautz were Texas League All-Stars and have nothing more to prove at Double-A. Rajcic is an incumbent and though he had a rough beginning at Memphis, until recently, he was a better prospect than Hansen. So Rajcic is probably the only other candidate to move for Hence. I chose Hansen because he hasn’t been promoted to Triple-A yet. (Also note that the original poster already removed Bedell, who at least on paper is still in the Memphis starting mix.)
But if you disagree, please share your thinking. If you like Hansen better than Rajcic, for example, you are not wrong. Just explain why you feel that way. Maybe others will agree with you.
That would be more helpful to the discussion than complaining about supposed hit lists.
I believe there’s going to be a lot more tandems/piggybacking so the name of the starter doesn’t really matter as he will be paired with someone else who goes just as many innings. The organization is in a situation where both it almost has to do this and probably should do it to try to gain a competitive advantage. 2 piggybackers going 4-5 innings every 5 days and then a few true firemen relievers and 1 inning absorber reliever is as good of path forward as any when you look at the combination of stuff and injury history that we have collected. I’d still expect a hand selected few guys to remain true 5-8 inning starting pitchers. In our minor’s system, those are likely to be Matthews, Doyle, Henderson, and Lin (and perhaps a few others).
This is what I believe should happen. And I think there’s a good chance now it finally will happen.
…. if half of the frontline starter candidates aren’t injured as they were in 2025…
It was only a few months ago that stopgaps like Wilkerson, Taylor and Plesac were rotation mainstays at Memphis. I am less sure the pendulum has swung that strongly yet, at least at Triple-A and Double-A. I could see some tandems at Class-A, but I have no idea how Matt Pierpont and his staff feel about that.
It does open up more options when you only have to go 4 innings. Guys like Bedell and Saladin come back into play plus you could stretch out more relief-only guys who have 3 pitches or more. The advantage to doing this is you plan to just face a lineup a maximum of 2 times through the order. Almost all pitchers do their best the first or second time through an order. In this way you protect your “starter” from the curse of the third time through a lineup. The disadvantage is you may be forced into having someone like Bedell taking 4 innings. But heck, he’s probably pitching that anyway out of the bullpen across a 5-game stretch, but now it is all at one time.
If you find guys who can effectively make this work well, especially 2 guys who play well off each other, then you eventually move this to the Major Leagues with 1 or 2 tandems to start.
Brian…. for a guy that followed Springfield all of last season. It was so nice to see three starters take the mound every time their spot came up. (Mautz missed one start at the beginning of May). That was 26 starts…. and Hansen pitched the opening game of the Championship series. To me that like a guy that has nothing else to prove at AA.
ps. Hence made three AA starts in ’25. Hansen might get all of the hype but he has the experience to move up….. Hence or no Hence.
I understand, but there are only so many rotation spots and sometimes deserving guys have to wait. Otherwise, McGreevy would have been in the Cardinals starting five all year long instead of repeating Memphis for the first half of his third year at Triple-A.
I don’t agree that if Hence is ready to start for Memphis, that Hansen should take priority. Then again, if you had said that it is time to move Hence to the pen and try to get something out of him, I probably would have agreed. But with what we know right now, Hence is still a starter and his 40-man option years clock is ticking. They have to make it a priority to get him going somehow.
My only reasoning to having Hence at Springfield, it’s because he hasn’t pitched that many innings there. But he is the much better prospect.
The Cardinals placed Hence on the Memphis roster coming into 2025, so they clearly thought he was ready. But then he was hurt in spring camp and when he came back just before Memorial Day, he worked his way into form at all four levels below Memphis (which was a first in my memory). He only logged 10 2/3 innings with Springfield before his season ended early (on July 3).
In 2026, will he be ready to go with no restrictions when camp opens? Even if we are told yes, would we believe it? I was at his last spring start, when he was pulled after one inning. The next day, a Cardinals official assured me that Hence was just “under the weather”. From there, he didn’t throw in a game again for almost 2 1/2 months!
Based on his 40-man roster status, he will report to big league camp. That is about all we can count on.
I’d love to be a fly on the wall and hear what internal discussions they have about Tink/Tink’s health or anyone in that similar situation for that matter.
One would have to assume it’s been said by several “let’s just put him in the pen and he can be lights out for a couple of innings.”
STL starting 5 guesses anyone?
1) Gavin Williams – Donnie, Jojo, Noot trade, controlled 4 more years
2) Cody Ponce -3/24M, 7/10/7 with 2M B/O or $12m option for 2029)
3) Dustin May -2/24, 10/14 and 1m B/O or 15M option for 2028
4) Libby
5) McGreevy
6) Leahy
7) Mathews/Mautz/Henderson
154) Nelly
155) Pugs
156) Brian Walton
157) Larry the cable Guy
158) PallanteJoking there at the end, but that could be a non-embarrassing rotation.
Without knowing who will be 100% healthy, I’d say it looks like this at the outset:
Memphis
Mathews
Henderson
Mautz
Hence
Hansen
(Racjic/Bedell as potential filler or bullpen)Springfield
Doyle
Lin
Rincon
Winquest
DohmPeoria
Davis
Elissalt
Franklin
Molina
Sequera/SaladinPalm Beach
Thompson
Dutkanych
Holiday
Graham
Batista
A bunch of other guys could slot in here, which wouldn’t be surprising.Clarke to Caterpillarville/Peoria? I’d guess? Maybe Springfield but doubtful.
Doyle in Springfield and then Memphis at ASB, then added to 40 man and called up in May 2027 IF they are even playing by then.
If they like Clarke, they’d be best not sending him to Peoria. But Bloom tends to slow play prospects, so I’d imagine he will be saddled with that assignment.
Dohm to Springfield already? I hope so. Maybe Dohm and Davis switch places? Also, if healthy and in top shape, Zack Thompson will have to get his last look in 2026. Since 2026 will be his fifth year with the organization, I could see the Cardinals challenging him by starting him out as high as Springfield. Thanks for posting.
Mud and all, are you thinking Thompson is still a starter? I was almost certain because of the truncated time table for him he would be in the Springfield or Memphis bullpen. Literally just curious.
I could be way off on that though and hadn’t put much thought into it.
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