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My other thought if you sign 2 innings eaters (Lynn/Gibson) does that mean you can take a chance on Snell as the Ace.
I can see why some may think that but I would rather go for an ace who has a better chance of staying on the field, especially if you are doling out the mega contract.
Montgomery was a member of the 5 man for the majority of the disastrous ’23 season. Why would his return change anything? What I’m driving at is that I don’t envision any genuine success for the Cardinals as long as the current leadership remains in place.
Well, a full season of Montgomery gives you an extra four wins over 2/3 of a season of Montgomery.
So, let’s say they pick up 3 wins by having Gibson + Lynn instead of Flaherty + Wainwright.
Now you add 4 wins for a full season of Montgomery.
Let’s say the analytics department figures out that our left-handed hitters hit left-handed pitchers better than their right-handed replacements do. That’s another 5 wins.
Let’s say you use Jordan Walker exclusively at DH. That’s an extra 2 wins.
Let’s say you use Tommy Edman instead of Masyn Winn at SS – that’s an extra 2 wins.
We’ve just improved by 16 wins, minimum.
The bullpen was a huge problem especially early on last year, I still remember that ridiculous 2 outs in the 9th home run Helsley gave up to the backup catcher in San Francisco…. Not sure that guy had another hit in the majors the rest of the season🤬
Just a quick glance at the starts last year:
Gibson had 17 quality starts
Flaherty and Hudson combined had 12
Lance Lynn had 13
Blake Snell had 20
Sonny Grey had 17
Jordan Montgomery had 20So nobody that pitched in Montgomery’s spot won a game after he left, I doubt that. Let’s say Lynn and Gibson are a year older so regress by some ampunt which is likely. Goldy continues to slide a little,maybe even arenado. Maybe our hitting doesn’t improve. And the other pitchers we have all miss significant game time due to injury. Not sure what all that subtracts to but maybe it’s all a wash and we finish with 71 wins. At least at the start of he season we will be tied for first. If by some miracle we get the Japanese pitcher or gray, maybe 10 more wins . Get both them we are talking
So nobody that pitched in Montgomery’s spot won a game after he left, I doubt that.
To your point, in 12 games, Dakota Hudson went 6-3 with a 4.98 ERA and was DFAd.
In 21 games with the Cardinals, Montgomery went 6-9 with a 3.42 ERA.
In 11 games with the Rangers, he went 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA.Do you blame all those losses with the Cardinals on Montgomery, or the team around him?
Did his pitching improve after going to the Rangers, or did he just have a better defense behind him?
Is Hudson the better pitcher because he had a better winning percentage with the Cardinals, or is Montgomery a better pitcher because he had a better ERA, better peripherals and could go longer into games?
In 21 games with the Cardinals, Montgomery went 6-9 with a 3.42 ERA.
In 11 games with the Rangers, he went 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA.Do you blame all those losses with the Cardinals on Montgomery, or the team around him?
Maybe that is the kind of thing Mo was thinking when he hired Lynn. Lance went 6-9 with the dreadful White Sox, and then went 7-2 after moving to the Dodgers. Just as an aside, 7 wins in his 11 starts in LA is a pace that would be 21 wins over a full season. It helps to pitch for a good team whatever your name is.
Lynn’s FIP was 6.06 in 11 games with the Dodgers and gave up 16 homers. Not to mention his 4 homer inning in the playoffs. Ugh
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