David Price Trade Thread

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  • #116680
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    stlcard25, your analysis is precisely what informed MLB Network commentary should have included, in my opinion. Anyone can throw out wild ideas without considering their ramifications. I guess that makes good TV for some.

    P.S. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand thinks Matt Carpenter could be included in a Cardinals offer for Price, for what that is worth.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/david-price-red-sox-trade-possibilities

    #116691
    Avatargscottar
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    Dan O’Dowd is one of the few talking heads on MLB Network that I usually pay attention to because he seems more serious than some of the others who just like to crack jokes and act goofy. I saw the piece mentioned and I was surprised he said it which brings me back to a point I brought up the other day. Do these “insiders” really know that much about all 30 teams? I mean it is easy to look at a roster and say that x player would look good on a certain roster but you have to know about the payroll situation and more importantly the tendencies of each team.

    Like I said, I think O’Dowd is respectable because he has actually done the job as GM instead of just playing fantasy GM but to think the Cardinals of all teams would be willing to accept $60M per year in additional salary sounds misinformed.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 2 months ago by Avatargscottar.
    #121422
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Price and Betts are being traded.

    #121424
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Alex Verdugo is rumored to be the centerpiece of the deal going to Boston.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28636934/red-sox-agree-trade-mookie-betts-david-price-dodgers

    #121426
    Avatarmspaid
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    I’m all for big deals to make the Cardinals a powerhouse and this deal makes the Dodgers loaded with talent but if they don’t win the WS then maybe it wasn’t worth it. I guess I’m arguing against myself. I hate the Dodgers over all teams in baseball I hope they miss the playoffs!

    #121428
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    Dodgers are in my top 3 for sure. Fans are about as obnoxious as they come.

    However I don’t think you’ll be lucky enough for them to miss the postseason.

    #121429
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    Verdugo?????

    Is he going to be that good?????

    #121430
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Verdugo could be good, but the deal is really more about the money the Dodgers are taking on. They sent Kenta Maeda, an average part time starter, to Minnesota, who sent a pitching prospect to Boston. It sounds like the Dodgers had to take most of Price’s salary. They then traded Joc Pederson to the Angels for salary relief. A busy night in LA.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28637404/angels-acquire-joc-pederson-dodgers-sources-say

    #121432
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Of note in the updated ESPN article above, the projected win totals for Boston and LA changed only by one. Thst seems low.

    With news of the trade, the Dodgers’ World Series odds went from 7-1 to 4-1 at Caesars Sportsbook, while their odds of winning the NL pennant went from +300 to +150 and their projected win total went from 99 to 100. The Red Sox’s projected win total went from 87.5 to 86.5, while their World Series odds went from 20-1 to 25-1.

    #121434
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Dodgers only get one year of Betts unless they pay up big (maybe new record “big”) to re-sign him. Or will he walk like their last rental star Manny Machado did?

    The Red Sox made this deal in part because of $34 MM in dead money this season (Sandoval, Castillo, Pedroia, etc…) By including Betts, they were able to unload Price’s huge contract.

    #121436
    Avatar1964cards
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    Brian, completely agree. Listened to a very good interview of a Boston writer on MLB Radio yesterday. He laid out the rationale for the deal which aligns well with yours. A couple of points he made:

    – Betts wants to test Free Agency and he is looking for a big payout. Red Sox Front Office concerned with making such a large investment in one player. Hence, it was unlikely they will be able to sign him at a price they would want after this season.
    – Red Sox Front Office came to the conclusion that it was unlikely they could get a prospect package of equal value. So they would get what prospects they could and shed a big contract to start addressing their salary cap issue with this deal.
    – Boston Front Office wants to retain several of their younger players and stay under the cap. They would probably like to move a couple more contracts if they could find takers.

    Many of us complain about the Cecil, Fowler and Carpenter contracts. However, I got the feeling Boston is in worse shape and are trying to address it.

    • This reply was modified 1 year ago by Avatar1964cards.
    #121441
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Dodgers only get one year of Betts unless they pay up big to re-sign him. Or will he walk like their last rental star Manny Machado did?

    It’s hard to imagine who will be able to afford to pay Betts what he probably deserves in this market. You’d have to think he will get something north of what Harper and Machado got and maybe less than Trout. 12 years and $400M?

    #121442
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #121443
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    …Patiently waiting for gscottar to stop by and insist again that the Dodgers and Friedman run their team just like the Cardinals… 😉

    #121444
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Another angle I did not consider in this context is the upcoming penalties to the Sox for sign stealing…

    #121445
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    …Patiently waiting for gscottar to stop by and insist again that the Dodgers and Friedman run their team just like the Cardinals… 😉

    Hey, you never know…maybe the Cards will pull the trigger on Arenado to keep up. The Dodgers have to be the huge favorite in the NL now, and maybe only the Braves and Cards really have the talent to stop them.

    #121459
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The Nats still have a lot of talent, too. The East and Central should both be good races. The poor D-backs made some moves to improve, but at best are going to be wild card hopefuls. The Rockies owner’s 94-win prediction looks more ridiculous daily. Their chances of making it are about with same with Arenado or not.

    #121461
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    As a Cardinals fan, I hate this deal! If I were a Dodgers fan, I love this deal, if I were a Sox fan, I don’t like it, but I would understand it had to get done, and Verdugo for 5 years is something to be excited about along with the prospect.

    – Would Price have gotten 3/45 on the open market(what Dodgers will be paying)?
    – This actually got the Sox well below their target, sort of amazing actually. According to Cots, they are now near $21M* under the tax, so they can still add pieces now or at the deadline
    – Dodgers are about $4M* over it even with the Joc trade, so they could still move someone if that is their goal, which since they have been under, I doubt that they care
    – The Twins needed pitching, and Maeda at $13M over 4 is a great value for them
    – As a comparison, Cards are about $29M* under
    – On paper, all 3 of these teams have significantly better lineups than the Cardinals

    *Above numbers include all of the factors that go into the tax level, such as min salaries, arb players, etc

    #121463
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The Dodgers got just under the tax line last year, so can blow over this year. The Sox owner, John Henry, told Bloom the new GM to get under this year. The biggest chunk the Red Sox saved was $96 MM owed Price over the next three years.

    Note that just two years ago, the Sox won 108 games and then 11 more to take the World Series. Last year, they won 84 and now, are stepping backward financially.

    It gets down to whether or not a team will play the over-under game with the cap. The Dodgers and Yankees seem to be able to do it while still remaining on top of their divisions, but still can’t win the WS. The others exceeding the cap haven’t consistently made it count. The new CBA could change everything, of course.

    #121464
    Avatargscottar
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    …Patiently waiting for gscottar to stop by and insist again that the Dodgers and Friedman run their team just like the Cardinals… 😉

    Sorry, I wasn’t online last night.

    This is no doubt an anti-Friedman type of move but I think it speaks to the amount of pressure that front office is on to produce a world series title. Of course that is assuming they ever get to face an AL opponent that isn’t cheating.

    Overall I still think Friedman and Mo are very similar but every once in awhile an analytic front office has to go off script and do something bold to get over the hump. Cardinal fans are patiently waiting for that to happen here.

    #121467
    Avatargscottar
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    This is a good move for both teams. Dodgers might finally get their world series title, although the playoffs are still a crapshoot.

    Red Sox are now well below the luxury tax. Their remaining dead money is three years of paying half of Price’s salary, two years of Pedroia, and one year of Castillo. Sandoval’s deal is done.

    As for Dodger fans being obnoxious, I can think of several fan bases much worse than theirs.
    Cubs, Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees, Cubs, Mets, and Cubs.

    Dodger fans are pretty laid back. They arrive in the third inning and leave in the seventh. The only time they get fired up is when they are playing the Giants.

    • This reply was modified 1 year ago by Avatargscottar.
    #121472
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Would Price have gotten 3/45 on the open market(what Dodgers will be paying)?

    I didn’t realize that’s what they’d be paying. That’s not that bad. This deal would be similar to the Cards trading Dylan Carlson for Betts and Price plus some cash, and including another team where they traded Mikolas or something similar. I’d have done that. Of course, it’s not my money.

    #121475
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    Will the Astros or Red Sox fill the new position on their teams – trash can beater? Also, whose bat will be used? All trash cans in MLB dugouts will henceforth be made of plastic.

    • This reply was modified 1 year ago by AvatarMinuteman3.
    #121478
    Avatargscottar
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    According to Cots the Dodgers are still under the CBT even after the big trade. Their CBT payroll is $204.9 and the threshold is $208. Trading Pederson and Maeda and only paying half of Price helped balance the books. Shrewd moves by Friedman.

    Remember that the CBT is calculated differently than regular 26 man payroll. The CBT contains salaries for everyone on the 40 man roster plus benefits so it is usually higher than the 26 man payroll, but not always. The CBT assigns an average salary to each player and is usually the same number each year of the contract even if the 26 man salary for that player is different. For example, if a player has a 5 year $100M contract the CBT salary will be $20M per year, but the 26 man salary may be $15M in year 1, $20M in year 2, $20M in year 3, $25M in year 4, and $20M in year 5. That is the case with the Dodgers since a few of their players have different salaries assigned to 26 man and CBT.

    While it is tempting to say that the Dodgers are just trying to buy a world series I still say that is a lazy take. They still don’t have the highest payroll, they aren’t over the CBT, and the biggest FA they have signed under Friedman is AJ Pollock with a 4 year $55M deal.

    They have ridden themselves of some dead weight, developed a high end farm system, and have shown from time to time the willingness to make a big trade. If they were simply just writing checks they would have Harper, Machado, Rendon, and Cole on their team but they don’t. They are using many different tools in the toolbox.

    #121480
    Avatargscottar
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