Agreement on 2021 rules/salaries/service time/contracts

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  • #145729
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    As you can see, I started two new threads. This one is focused on the decisions that need to be negotiated before MLB can play in 2021. We had a similar thread for 2020.

    (The other thread, not this one, is about the new CBA to replace the one that expires in December 2021.)

    #145730
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I will start it off. The following article quotes Manfred as saying:

    MLB teams will have operational losses of between $2.8 and $3 billion in 2020.

    MLB teams have a total of $8.3 billion in debt to various lenders.

    #145732
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    The numbers in this article are very curious. They come from an anonymous MLB official who provided them to The Athletic.

    2019 MLB revenues $10.7 billion

    Original 2020 MLB revenue projection $10 billion
    Original 2020 MLB expense projection $10.2 billion

    Actual 2020 MLB revenue $3 billion
    Actual 2020 MLB expense $6.1 billion

    I find it very questionable that BEFORE COVID, MLB both expected down revenues and to lose money in 2020. Prior to 2020, MLB had grown revenues in the last 17 consecutive years.

    It feels to me like the posturing with the union has begun. Since MLB’s books are private, there is no way to independently verify what they say.

    This sentence comes late in the article.

    But ownership’s calculus of “need” is not typically based on a desire for dipping into their personal wealth, or tolerance for losses, even if their financial well-being is not seriously threatened.

    https://theathletic.com/2160374/2020/10/26/mlb-owners-lay-off-hundreds-as-revenues-plummet-drastically-changing-the-sport/

    #145739
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The math is more than a bit hazy, too. $10.7B split 30 ways is more than $333M per team. When I added payroll up for all 30 teams in 2019, it comes to about $4.15B. Are teams really spending almost 60% of their budget on things beyond payroll? Seems very fishy.

    #145766
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I assume this will be the thread to discuss any rule changes that may be rolled over from 2020 into 2021. If MLB is smart they will bring some kind of resolution to the DH issue as quickly as possible after the world series so the NL GM’s will know what they are dealing with. It could make a big difference for a guy like Nelson Cruz if he can negotiate with 30 teams instead of 15.

    #145768
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    There are very good reasons to decide the DH question quickly as you noted. There are also very good reasons for one side to not make individual concessions to the other side while the bigger issues for 2021 are open.

    Which approach will prevail? My money is on the latter. Delay. (That is not what I wish, but I don’t get a vote.)

    The NL got along fine in 2020 by deciding the DH just a few weeks before the delayed season began. It could happen that way again.

    #145894
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Not sure which thread to post this in but here is a summary of the offseason calendar.

    #146857
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    The amount of losses Manfred claims for 2020 is being disputed using the numbers from the one team that is publicly owned, the Braves.

    #146938
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    Hard to square but also hard to see how you can lose nearly 3 million in paid attendence and only lose $20 million

    #146974
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    On KMOX this morning, Mo said not to expect any decisions on 2021 rules soon. He said GMs have talked but they need to talk more. The owners also need to discuss. (He didn’t even mention that they then need to take it to the players and negotiate from there.)

    #147002
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Here is the real issue. Until it is hammered out, nothing else matters.

    #147007
    ZTRZTR
    Participant

    Free

    Interesting. I think some contraction at the major league level would do wonders for the quality of the product on the field.

    Don’t see it happening but each league contracting by 2 teams might open a few eyes around the league.

    They fight over millions for playing a game while most people live paycheck to paycheck or gov’t check to gov’t check.

    ESPN is laying off or not filling a total of 500 jobs.

    More and more people are ‘cutting the cord’ of cable / satellite tv and their bloated packages.

    The financial challenges we are seeing may not be as temporary as some would hope.

    As an off-sport example, my 2 sons and I went to see the USMNT (soccer) play 3 years ago.

    3 tickets = $300
    Parking $30
    Lunch at Stadium $60
    2 t-shirts $50

    (The cheapest tickets were around $50 each after fees and taxes)

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by ZTRZTR.
    #147018
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Just the opposite is more likely to happen in a few years. They are talking about adding two teams for a more symmetric 32 teams. Each of the new entrants would have to pay millions in entry fees, creating a windfall for the remaining teams, cash-strapped by the current economy.

    One such hopeful city is Nashville, whose prospective ownership group has hired former Red Sox/Tigers/Marlins exec Dave Dombrowski to help get them into the MLB fraternity. The Angels wanted to talk with him about their opening leading baseball ops, but he turned them down.

    But none of this is going to change in 2021. More pressing matters are on the front burner – or need to get there in a hurry!

    #147052
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    A nice overview of the landscape, but of course, no answers…

    #147171
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Some guarded good news. Both sides (Players and owners) have plans to coalesce their own sides’ positions on the rules for 2021 and may be in a position to talk next month.

    #147227
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    I dont see how they expect a NL GM to construct a team without knowing if there is a DH, how many roster spots, etc.

    #147229
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The NBA did a pretty fair job of putting together a nearly complete season that gives the owners some protection against fans not being allowed at games while also keeping a good chunk of money in players pockets for 2021. Why is it that baseball struggles so much worse to come to an amicable agreement?

    #147236
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I am not an expert on this, but a quick check led me to think that the NBA agreement assumes teams can play in full arenas in a season that starts less than six weeks from now. If that isn’t allowed, will the deal hold?

    #147238
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    This is from an article on ESPN about it…

    The two sides also came up with a compromise on the escrow system to spread the losses out across multiple seasons. The typical escrow withholding of 10% will remain in place. If there is a need to reduce player salaries by more than that 10%, that loss will be spread out over that season, as well as the following two — and players can never have more than 20% of their salary withheld in a single season. The hope on both sides is that future seasons will see the league be able to return to normal financial footing as the pandemic subsides.

    https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/30293764/board-governors-unanimously-approve-amended-deal-nba-72-game-season-sources-say

    #147240
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Thanks. So the NBA owners are guaranteeing 80% of the salaries. Further, the rest is not eliminated, just deferred. That seems far more generous terms than MLB owners would agree to. I wonder if NBA revenue is less than 40% dependent on game-day. The approach in baseball has been to tether pay to number of games played. Maybe they will be more creative in 2021, though.

    #147243
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    It would be nice if MLB and the MLBPA could come to a similar agreement. Some risk on players, some risk on owners. Maybe a 140 game season that allows for some windows later in the season to fill in for games that might be lost to COVID. Salaries could be mostly guaranteed (in the 80% range) and tied somewhat to fans in the stands scenarios (90% if fans are fully allowed to show up by half season, 100% if there’s, by some miracle, full fans all year). But that’s probably too much to ask.

    #148317
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Right, Big Jim. I bet the two parties are diligently working on the DH during this holiday weekend… And surely next season will be ruined if this is still open on Monday…

    #148348
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #148388
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    The NY Daily News’ Bill Madden ran a story this morning saying that the Phillies owner lost $2 billion last season so they cannot re-sign Realmuto. After countless people cried BS, the paper made a retraction about the exact size of the loss.

    Madden also included the out-of-context line that MLB owners are carrying $8.3 billion in debt instead of noting the total 2020-only losses for all clubs were estimated to be $2.8 billion to $3 billion, per Manfred.

    Don’t these reporters who follow the game for a living know that it would be pretty much impossible for one team to lose twice as money than the other 29 put together? Are they just really sloppy or carrying water for the owners?

    https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/ny-baseball-free-agency-20201128-kvpxd243bfgxneas6mp6rwmzfq-story.html

    So then later today, the AP ran a story that pegged the Phillies’ 2020 losses at a far more realistic $145 million. What is $1.855 billion among friends? 😉

    https://apnews.com/article/mlb-matt-klentak-philadelphia-phillies-philadelphia-coronavirus-pandemic-1e0053b6af3fc6b61fa9fde0deb664e4

    #148831
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Andrew Miller will remain in the middle of the action going forward.

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