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One of the weaknesses last season was musical chairs. I don’t care really who plays CF or 2B, but I hope they go with pretty much a set defense and a set lineup every day. It produces stability and every player knows exactly what they’re supposed to do in every situation.
We can argue about what the Cardinals could have or should have done in the past to get a different outcome today. However, what we have today is what we have. And logically, playing the players where the Cardinals have said they are going to play them makes sense.
Basically, it comes down to how to use each of the parts in the best way possible. And, there are trade-offs to each choice.
If you put Edman in CF, it gives you the best CF defender. And, that’s a plus for Walker because he’s likely to get some late breaks on balls as he’s trying to figure it out. Sure, Carlson has more experience. But he’s not a better defender. No way. What we saw from Edman was gold glove material in CF. So it helps Walker and it helps the CF defense. Is Edman better offensively than Carlson? It’s probably close to a wash. If I had to pick, I’d pick Carlson in a toss-up but I’m going to consider it even for this argument. So better defense and the same offense. That’s a good trade-off.
If you put Edman at 2B, then Gorman has nowhere to play but DH. And we want Gorman’s bat in the lineup nearly every day. So if he’s always the DH, that has consequences. First, Contreras is only going to catch about 65% of the time or less. His bat is very good and can be the DH on his off days. So we’re taking that away. Second, Donovan is going to be a super-sub for players. That includes Nootbaar, Walker, Goldschmidt, and Arenado. We don’t want their bats completely removed either, but if Gorman is the DH, then we lose that. All of this lowers the offensive potential a lot. The trade-off is quite a bit better 2B defense. Gorman is ok, but he’s a little below average there. I think the offense is worth a lot more though in this case.
If you put Edman at SS, then Winn might as well go back to AAA to play every day. Edman is likely to hit better than Winn and provide similar defense, so on the surface, that seems ok. But dig deeper and you’ll easily see the costs to this move. First, it makes Carlson the everyday CF and he’s not nearly as good as Edman as discussed above, which also provides less protection to Walker. And second, that means Winn goes back to the place where he’s already mastered to essentially work on very little. It means a wasted year for our #1 prospect. The only way he really gets better is reps at the MLB level at this point. Yes, they could trade him as some have suggested. But he’s the #1 prospect. It isn’t likely to happen. He may be a really good future player. Just probably not in 2024. It’s going to take a year.
So logically, Edman plays CF (and is the backup SS), Carlson becomes the 4th outfielder (because he’s not going to out-hit Walker or Nootbaar – at least not against RH pitchers) and Winn plays everyday at SS while he develops into hopefully a future all-star. We will need to give him some grace while his bat likely struggles for a while. There’s really no other better choice with the players we have. This is the best solution both short-term and long-term with the guys we have. I’m also confident it’s going to work out well. Our offense and defense are both going to be much improved from 2023 (barring lots of injuries). Now pitching on the other hand . . . I’m not as sure about.
I’m less concerned about pitching because you can project out the starts. But with Oli’s constant juggling because of what the analytics wonks say, you can’t do that with the position players. And if that continues in 2024, they’ll continue to be unsettled.
Jnevel, I don’t see the big gap between Edman and Carlson regarding CF defense. If there is a gap between the two players I would give an edge to Edman on offense especially with his baserunning, however, Fangraphs projects both players to have an identical WAR in 2024 of 2.0.
Ditto on jnevel explainer. My only question is where does “Contreras only going to catch about 65 percent of the time” come from? I don’t doubt you, but I guess that was decided when I wasn’t looking.
Contreras has generally only caught around 65% (give or take some) throughout his career including last year. He’s now well into his 30’s. Plus, we have a catcher in Herrera that the Cardinals are certainly going to want to grow. I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see a 50/50 time share. That means lots of time with Contreras as DH.
As soon as Donovan has to backfill for an IL starter, infield or outfield, DH is wide open. Herrera deserving more starts would be a plus to the rosters depth.
Now that Gamboa is on my radar I am thinking about him filling the SS capable bench spot that exists in the supposed active roster.
I notice he has played a decent amount of CF. I also note he is a switch hitter and he is strongest from the left side, hitting righties pretty OK. I also note that he answers the bell every day. Having that on the bench, apart from the SS depth, would insulate the roster from the potential black hole if we have to go with Carlson in CF everyday, and he continues to not hit righties and have durability problems. I also note Gamboa swiped 25 vs 4 caught. He hasn’t tore up AAA, but it seems like he holds his own in upper level play, and may offer more than, say, Fermin, or, god forbid, a Motter redo.
Who do you take off the team for Gamboa, bling? This is fresh on my mind since I posted my first roster prediction article yesterday. The return of Marp seemed to evaporate that back up SS slot.
Or do you mean Gamboa if Edman has to open the season on the IL?
I think wear and tear on Edman at CF is going to rear it’s ugly head.
IMO he should be either the starting SS or 2B; and yes, that would mean there’s no room for either Donovan or Gorman with the current roster makeup.
There was a trade to be made to acquire a CF that would have sorted all this out such that Edman could play middle infield.
It’s likely that Winn will be pretty weak offensively this year and that’s ok as long as the rest of the bats can pick him up.
Maybe there will be a deadline trade made that brings in another front end starter and a CF and that a couple of guys are shipped out and the whole thing clears itself up…..
There are a ton of different ways to get it done with pieces getting shifted around depending on who would stay and who would go.
So, if CF were brought in such that Edman could move back to 2B and Carlson was kept on to be the 4th outfielder…..I guess Gorman is gone and Donovan is kept as the super-sub? Winn – Edman – Donovan covers SS & 2B.
I guess another option is somehow Arenado goes for a starting pitcher and Gorman moves to 3B?
Does any of the above make any sense at all?
Given good health for all, it would have to be Gamboa in and Burleson out. That would throw Donovan into an increased OF backup role. Which is not a negative in that his glove and offensive contribution are probably both superior. I agree this is not an optimum arrangement, but the absurdity of Carp on the roster means any bench arrangement is going to not be optimum anyway. We need to mazimize the usefulness of the rest of the bench, and frankly, Burly is not that useful. Gamboa plus tweeking Donovan’s role might be better. It sould be remembered that Carlson can play all three OF positions, and presumably Gamboa could too, since he has some CF ability.
Masyn Winn is set to be the #STLCards' regular shortstop, but the team is considering adding a veteran backup: https://t.co/Km6Wt467fM pic.twitter.com/CCSLLUAX7y
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) February 24, 2024
Does any of the above make any sense at all?
Yep ZTR, makes a lot of sense to me. I agree with your take as much or more than anybody’s, but we are where we are.
It’s hard to always eliminate round peg/square whole syndrome, because the front office can’t just snap their fingers to make all the ideal moves. But there’s been a pattern for years now where they are often too willing to use questionable position placements as a solution to the lack of player transaction/acquisition success. Then when the going-in plan has those soft spots, in-season bumps in the road lead to solutions that sometimes look like musical chairs.
I think there are too many realistic points of failure not to see more of it in 2024. Who knows, maybe we’ll be fortunate and a lot of chips will fall in the right place after all the things that went wrong last year.
Good to know someone is U.I. capable you like Bling. I hadn’t heard of him. That last bench spot needs to have a Memphis shuttle season pass.
ZTR, what you are saying is logical – if it was October now, but spring games are already underway. A significant revamp now isn’t likely at all. This seems to be the crew they are opening with…
If Edman is healthy, this is much ado about nothing. They designed the roster to have Winn and Edman take ALL the reps all season. The team with the best third string shortstop rarely wins with that being the determining factor.
Brian, yeah the die is cast for opening day.
I guess some stuff could still get done at the deadline if there are injuries and / or the Cards are contending and need another arm or two.
If Edman gets hurt they will need two guys to replace him. 1 for SS and 1 for CF…whether it’s call ups or via the trade route.
I’m reasonably flexible as far as position players go, but I want to see an end to this day-to-day juggling. Just decide on an A-Team and stick with it, circumstances permitting, so players can get comfortable and don’t have to wait until first pitch every day to know where they’ll be playing. Some days it looks like we’re just wandering in the desert.
I guess the approach would depend on how long Edman would be out. I think they’d just play Carlson in CF, at least until the trade deadline. And hope Scott tears it up in Triple-A like Winn did last year, then bring him up. My feeling a trade would be their last resort and almost certainly would not be on the table now.
The return of Marp seemed to evaporate that back up SS slot.
It un-evaporated.
That last bench spot needs to have a Memphis shuttle season pass.
Mo did not get the memo.
So now we face the roster situation discussed above. Backup shortstop is in, who is out?
We also need a 40 man slot for Crawford.
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