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I’m probably not thinking about health enough.
Its going to be interesting to see where we end up putting Roby and Clarke. They are in the one thing after another injured pitcher category. But, man, they look fantastic when they are on the mound. Hjerpe, and I think Henderson, are in the guys who had TJ category, which is a different thing. Its too bad in both cases a one year lay up was turned into a two year lay up. Father time makes sure you don’t get that year back.
Can’t see Hjerpe this early. His first game was great, but his appearances after that were shades of Rick Ankiel. His control is a major concern.
Hjerpe is my #11. He’s an even higher risk than Josh Baez for a guy who’s already debuted. The stuff works, but I cannot see him holding up to a starter’s load and his fastball may not have enough juice to be a truly elite reliever. We will see, of course.
He kind of already has been a contributor:
.788 OPS (119 OPS+) in 108 PAs.
He had a .278 OBP and three of his seven home runs came in his first game. He has immense power, but I question whether he will grow into the OBP portion of the stat line.
#7 – Sebastian dos Santos
This is probably where I would vote for Fajardo, but I am giving the edge to the position player.
I have him ahead of Condon because they are the same age, at the same level and SS is a more premium position than CF, though both are high on the defensive spectrum.
Franklin was talked about quite a bit on the Wednesdays With Walton and Reis podcast this morning, based on this BA article:
Yeah, BA loves Franklin. But if his pitches were so incredible, why can’t he outperform a guy who is two years younger and doesn’t have a great fastball?
They also think Josh Baez is a great defender in the outfield.
These next several slots are going to be a free for all, there are so many players you can make an argument for. Its hard to argue with our top 6.
Roby has forced his way back into a conversation that asks, “Where does a healthy Tekoah Roby with seemingly improved spin and strength rank?”
Brandon Clarke’s health has become cloudier; Roby’s health has been nothing but affirming.
I love Condon and the three SS’s in this area, but Cooper Hjerpe could leave camp as a starter, and if he is healthy and pitching well, he may be at that point our most dynamic MLB starter.
Hjerpe at 7 pleaseYeah, BA loves Franklin. But if his pitches were so incredible, why can’t he outperform a guy who is two years younger and doesn’t have a great fastball?
If you include the playoff starts that each made, Franklin DID outperform Fajardo (who gave up 7 runs in 7 playoff innings) both at Springfield and for the season. Even without the playoff starts, Franklin had a better WHIP allowed, lower hits allowed per 9 (7.5 to 9.1), more innings pitched and more strikeouts total, slightly lower HR rate allowed, was better against RHB (.703 OPS vs .775 OPS allowed) and against LHP (.677 OPS vs .701 OPS allowed). Fajardo had a slightly better K/9 (11.54 to 11.4) and a better walk rate (2.9 to 3.9).
Franklin was in his first year pitching as a starter. Fajardo is younger. I’m not saying that Fajardo is a bad prospect…what he did at his age was pretty impressive. But he’s got more limited upside due to the less than great fastball. Franklin was impressive himself as a first year starter in the system, and with the way he pitched late in Springfield and in the playoffs, has the talent and potential to be a #2-3 starter that I just don’t see anyone, anywhere, putting Fajardo in that bracket.
I admit to not being as on top of Fajardo as I should be. My notes from earlier have that he is thought to need to add another pitch to is repertoire and probably a couple ticks to his FB to be successful in the highest levels. I did not make a note of where I saw or heard that. Can anyone speak to it?
but he’s got more limited upside due to the less than great fastball.
Do you know why Franklin had more innings pitched? The Cardinals had Fajardo pitch as a reliever for three games. Franklin also had one more game at both A+ and AA.
Do you know which pitcher pitched more innings per game? It wasn’t Franklin.
I give the edge to the guy who is two years younger, because I believe that in two years, his fastball will be better than it is today and he will likely have another pitch. Fajardo is 6’3 and 181 lbs. I have to believe they are working with him on adding to his strength and body frame, in addition to pitches.
Franklin has exceeded my expectations so far, going from two pitches to four pitches in one year. And if you believe BA, he has six “pitch shapes,” and more than one pitch that is phenomenal. But if he has truly phenomenal stuff, and Fajardo is truly underwhelming, their stat lines on the same team playing the same competition wouldn’t be comparable.
At this juncture, I give the edge to Fajardo, who I believe will have a greater career WAR than Franklin.
Hjerpe’s greatest accomplishment in 4 full seasons is not getting hurt from July-September in 2026. Let that sink in.
And he still hasn’t thrown a full season of innings as a pro. Penciling him into the 2027 rotation seems…awfully like Recency Bias.
We never learn from history as a society 🙂
I haven’t seen where anyone has penciled Hjerpe into the 2027 rotation. It has been said he will be competing for a slot in the rotation this spring. If recency bias means Hjerpe was already called up and given a look then, yes, recency bias works in his favor competing this spring. The two year layoff for TJ really messed up his development path and he hasn’t had much time at AAA. But they didn’t all him up for no reason. It seems reasonable to guess that the reason is he is under consideration for the 2027 pitching staff.
@tball12: Making a marginalizing generalization isn’t kind, intelectually relevent, or condusive to critical thinking.
Perhaps you weren’t present for any of Hjerpe’s no hitters, and are unfamiliar with his repertoire, so you may plead ignorance.
I hardly think Hjerpe is going to even make the rotation, but I am aware that the team seems likely to take the six best North and limit innings along the way and at the end when necessary.@Nigel T, thanks for the encouraging phrases. Anyways, I saw Hjerpe throw a no-no 5 innings in AA a few years ago, then suffer more problems with the elbow in his next start. I saw his no hit debut this year vs. the Rockies for 4 IP, but then follow it up with an awful 1 IP showing vs. the White Sox fighting, which he often does : control.
Consistency, he doesn’t possess that…yet? Until he does, he’s bullpen piece, and I can’t see where or how we can rank a bullpen piece in the Top 10. It’s something I see fans do all the time when ranking prospects.
I respect your decision. You seem like a well worded fella.
@CC, he was pretty neat seeing Fajardo pitch to Rainiel this summer, and realizing they are both 19yo.
That is really something. That still sticks with me from the this past season.
Hjerpe out of the pen would bring back visions of Andrew Miller preCards. That would be a weapon. Roby and Hjerpe out of the pen to get them to 80 innings this year and 120 next as starters would seem optimal and exciting.
These rankings reflect an indefinite future rather than simply past luck and performance. If you asked me who will have the highest total WAR from among Fejardo, Hjerpe, or Roby at the end of their careers, I would say Cijntje beats all three. If you asked me who might start an All Star game, I’d say Hjerpe.
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