2026 TCNs Top 50 Prospect Countdown

The comments about Jesus Baez’s work ethic are not very inspiring. Very physically talented but baseball is a sport where you need repetition of the fundamentals.

It will be fun to watch if Franklin can show signs of development on the changeup. If he can, he should be able to stick in the rotation, but if not he would still be very valuable out of the back of the pen.

Hence’s past on the mound results are irrelevant. So are Roby’s. We know that pitching in a way that achieves those results pushes their bodies beyond what can be tolerated. So if they return to pitching that way, they will go down again. They need to find a different way to pitch that their body can tolerate, and then they have to try to be effective pitching in that way. I personally do not carry them on my top prospect list while they are going through that process, because, if they can stay on the mound at all, it will be as a different pitcher, and there is no reason to think that will be a top prospect level pitcher until we see what kind of results can be put up without ending up back on the IL.

It seems like the org, and maybe Hence, finally accepted that reality, and it didn’t go well. The new way of pitching didn’t look too good, as Kyle described, and his body couldn’t tolerate it anyway. Back to square one. I guess maybe Roby had been trying something similar. Tweeking the mechanics to take stress off the shoulder put more stress somewhere else. So he also is back to square one finding a way to pitch that his body can handle. If he can, we will see if he’s any good.

It will be interesting to see whether Hence or Roby have more impact on a MLB roster than Winquest, who, as a durable and effective starter successfully breaking into the upper levels, didn’t get a 40 man spot. Its one thing to play make believe when there is no real price to pay, and another when there is.

I don’t agree that TKRob is in the same boat as Markavian.
TKRob with the time off/rehabbing can fully, versus rushing back, let the shoulder heal this time. Then with the new elbow, could be huge for his success the next decade. He was pitching like a top of the rotation prospect before the TJS.
Hence just seems to strain or pull random parts. To be able to be a difference maker for the St Louis Cardinals, putting him in relief is the best bet to get positive value out of him. (See Reyes, Alex)
By 2028, the contention window opens and he could be a top closer after getting some experience at the back end of the pen.

Back in summer 2024 we had a robust discussion of Hjerpe (and Roby and Hence) spread across several threads. Here is what I said about Hjerpe at the time:

” I think Hjerpe is headed for elbow surgery and a lengthy layoff. I say that because there is no structure within an elbow that sheds bits when healthy. Loose bodies are the result of either injury or wear beyond what the structure can tolerate. He is now out again after having the bodies removed. His elbows is likely continuing to come apart. Again, pretend whatever you want, but I will not play along. ”

That is from July 22, 2024 Minor League Game Thread week 15

Here we are a year and a half later. This winter a 40 man slot was involved, so there is a price that was paid.

Agreed, but the question is, then what? Hope that they are still on the mound throwing meaningful pitches in a few years when it will actually matter, or hope that they throw meaningful pitches long enough to be able to trade them profitably.

I would like them to get an opportunity to get some innings this year and start building up some big league experience to give them the best shot to be valuable back of the bullpen arms for 27, 28, 29. For 27 they may not be be quite ready for the back of the pen until late in the year.

I also don’t know if you can expect both to be healthy at the same time always. But instead I’m taking a Dodgers approach with the pitching staff and pen in particular of building high talent even if high injury risks. If you accumulate enough talent, then even if you get the inevitable pitching injury, you still have remaining talent.

You cannot have enough high end pitching talent because there is no such thing as a workhorse pitcher. All pitchers get hurt. It is a simple fact of the game and it happens to the best of them at any time. Wheeler was close to what you could call a workhorse, but look at him this year suddenly out with a major injury. Burnes was the same this year.

ST25, agreed. JJ, RR, then Doyle/Leo/Baez are 3 a,b,c for me