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Is Taylor a free agent? He should have been called up in the last month. Try him out, what do you have to lose?
IMO, Roby and Hence both have the tools/ability to be elite starting pitchers. Health has hurt both of them as far as reaching that ceiling. Hence has been downgraded even more in my rankings due to his total inability to go deep into games when starting.
Well I don’t like the organizations pitch counts. I understand after injury, but they are very conservative. I think strength needs built up, but you should add to pitch count every start. This is a failure of developement.
He is at least out for the majority of ‘26 recovering from TJ, which is generally better than shoulder surgery. But it’s still a lost year.
These are tough factors to weigh. If everything goes right, Roby could be a mid-rotation starter in St Louis by June ‘27 – albeit one with a big innings limit. More likely, he spends his career as a high leverage bullpen guy who still has some injury issues here and there.
I handled my rankings based on an average future value (meaning about 50th percentile outcome) and high end future value (something like 80th percentile outcome). I bunched players by average value, with ties broken by high end value. Injury history did play a role, unfortunately, as I put Hence, Hjerpe and Roby in the high risk bucket due to their injury woes.
To not totally give away my rankings (as I have another guy in the mix for these spots 8-13), my assessment without putting a number on each of these mid-level guys:
Hence-Will get hitters out as long as he’s pitching, electric stuff, highest ceiling in the org outside of Doyle, huge risk because he can’t stay healthy.
Henderson-Successful at every level, stuff a notch below Hence and Roby but more durable, no real injury history, lowest risk of the group but not as high ceiling.
Hjerpe-The King of Funk, he just gets outs and lots of em by K (and lots of walks too). Another one with arm troubles, I cannot imagine a scenario where he ends up starting for the Cardinals in the big leagues. He could be a very nice reliever, though. Will see when he pitches next.
Mautz-Good stuff, not quite as good as Hence or Roby, some injury history, some history of success but also some middling results, reliever risk but should play in MLB.
Roby-Excellent stuff, results generally have not followed until this year. Injury history makes him less likely to reach the majors, but if it all works out, there’s upside.
Mautz-Good stuff, not quite as good as Hence or Roby, some injury history, some history of success but also some middling results, reliever risk but should play in MLB.
Looking at his ’25 season…. From July 1st on he was the most consistent pitcher in the organization. He only missed two starts in May.
#8 Mautz IMO- He’ll get a some starts in STL at the end of ’26
To not totally give away my rankings (as I have another guy in the mix for these spots 8-13), my assessment without putting a number on each of these mid-level guys:
Thank you for your prudence. Sometimes we get carried away and list our next ten which could potentially skew the results.
#8 – Ixan Henderson
Hence is a reliever.
He has only thrown 5.0 innings or more 17 times in his major league career, the last time was May 30, 2024. He started getting injured when they tried to make him throw more than 4 innings per start.
Just make him a reliever and be done with it.
#8 -Roby
As others have stated, many other pitchers in a clump. (and nobody has mentioned Tanner Franklin or Ryan Mitchell yet) I know, it is hard to rank guys you haven’t seen much or any at all! Looking at other sources, these guys rank in the top 15 of their lists.As much as I hate to pass on Hence this early in the ranking, I fell I have to listen to the voices of reason and back off on him because of the unreliability of his health. I’m tempted to vote for Jesus Baez here based primarily on the idea that MLB, which reportedly does the Cardinals ranking must, have had input from some scouts on Baez, but also because the Cardinals website has reported that Jesus Baez hit a HR at 104.6 MPH at age 19. The bottom line, though, is that there’s really not enough to judge this kid yet. So, I’ll pass on him for now. As unhittable as Hjerpe looks when he’s healthy, it’s hard to imagine that a pitcher with his pitching motion is going to stay healthy, so I can’t really disagree with the notion that he’s at reliever. Roby just hasn’t earned my confidence yet. I do have high hopes for Henderson, but not ready to rank him this high yet.
Mautz’ pitching line for 2025… W/L 8-3 ERA 2.98, WHIP 1.11 with 134 SO in 114.2 IP. And he was dominant for the Springfield Redbirds in their successful playoff run.
#8 Brycen Mautz
I think we should just expect that Herjpe and Hence will just be a great LH/RH duo at the back of the pen.
A couple of other reasons to take the “national sites” with a major grain of salt, Fangraphs, who are supposedly updated, doesn’t have Deniel Ortiz in the Cards top 50 and Braden Davis in mid 40’s.
I think we should just expect that Herjpe and Hence will just be a great LH/RH duo at the back of the pen.
The good news is the Cardinals could have a very strong bullpen!
The bad news is they still need to develop quality starters!
LA, agreed. I personally don’t think they are that far off from being competitive.
1) Sign a 2nd tier SP from the free agent pool
2) Sign or trade for a RF with power
3) Trade for another quality starter from their depth positions
4) DO NOT trade Burly, Herrera or ContrerasDo those things and they could make the playoffs. The extra butts in the seats could easily pay for that.
Do those things and they could make the playoffs. The extra butts in the seats could easily pay for that.
Yes, but it does set them back from claiming that $70 million in welfare for billionaires.
3) Trade for another quality starter from their depth positions
4) DO NOT trade Burly, Herrera or ContrerasWhat other depth pieces might add up to a ‘quality starter’?
Bling,
Crooks, Church, Noot and Jesus Baez would surely bring something good back. Throw in a couple of the “destined for the BP” pitchers and I’m sure they could get a nice pitcher. Not a Skenes level, but much better than Pallante.
Gray and Arenado drastically drop in 2027 payroll, so backload the deals for a year for the SP and RF.
They don’t have to suck to rebuild the farm, those moves would be beneficial financially I would have to believe. I’ll look into the numbers during this Blue Jays win.
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