- This topic has 175 replies, 22 voices, and was last updated 4 weeks, 1 day ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Walker illustrates the reason not to fall in love too soon. He blasted some Texas League mistakes into the parking lot a few years ago. He is still riding that and the Cardinals are still grasping that.
We call it the first round draft pick syndrome. The Pete Kozma effect. Got to see if the pedigree will actually work out.
We call it the first round draft pick syndrome. The Pete Kozma effect. Got to see if the pedigree will actually work out.
First round draft pick syndrome is just one variation of a larger phenomenon. If you pick enough first rounders, you will hit now and then. If you pick enough 19 year olds, you will hit now and then. If you pick enough perpetually injured pitchers, you will hit now and then. I do not understand the usefulness of that exercise considering we already know about the law of averages.
Spring Training stats are still more or less meaningless. It’s nice to see some guys play well and the struggles are worrisome to some degree, but we have no idea what guys are working on or through at this time. When the season starts and pitchers hone in on their tendencies, we will see if old habits don’t come right back to the forefront.
All that to say, it’s a long season, so I’m not necessarily ready to make any grand projections (outside of our BOLD prediction thread still to come before the season starts).
26-man roster looks really close to cemented now. We know almost for certain who 12 of the 13 position players will be (I’m counting Wetherholt in that group). The only spot left is Velasquez or Saggese? I’m fairly confident this will be Velasquez. Noot goes to the 60-day IL to make room. Someone else will need to be DFA for Wetherholt. While I still believe Walker should be sent down to maximize the time to get him back on track, the team may not go that hard route.
On the pitching side, 6 guys are still vying for 5 rotation spots. Liberatore, May, and McGreevey are in. Right now, I think Fitts would lose out to Pallante and Leahy, but this one hasn’t been decided yet. The “loser” likely goes to AAA to stay stretched out or spends a few weeks in the pen as a long reliever before being sent down.
The bullpen is the toughest battle to project. Romero, Stanek, Svanson, O’Brien, and Bruhil are in. That leaves 3 spots open. Soriano likely makes it as well as he is out of options. Then it’s between Pushard, Graceffo, Roycroft, and the potential 6th starter for the last 2 spots. Even though Pushard hasn’t earned it, they probably want to give him a bit longer look before shipping him back to the Marlins. Therefore, I’ll guess these last 2 spots go to Pushard and the 6th starter.
Nice summary, Jnevel. Here are a few other things to consider.
As noted in our StL Notebook posted this morning, Urias is dealing with a sore elbow. If he has to go on the IL, that covers Saggese.
On the SP side, I think starter #6 will go down to Memphis. I also agree that Fitts is most likely if for no other reason, beecause he is the newcomer.
Among RPs, I suspect that Graceffo is above the others and will be on the StL roster.
Finally, they likely won’t make the final roster decisions until after the game in Springfield one week from tonight. In fact, they aren’t required by MLB to set the roster until noon ET on Thursday.
Thanks Brian for the update on Urias. That makes sense to keep Saggese up if Urias isn’t ready to go. I also agree that I would keep Graceffo if they don’t leave the 6th starter left up.
It doesn’t really matter, but the other names who are left over in MLB camp are interesting to me. Brody Moore, Ramon Mendoza, Andy Yerzy, Carlos Linarez, and Scott Blewett. I think they are all left because they are guys that could fill in for a short-term injury if one occurred and then be DFA after without much risk of losing them. Otherwise, why not just reassign them? They are clearly not better than many of the guys already sent down. They don’t have any backup outfielders though, but it would probably have been Antico had he been invited to camp originally. Again, this doesn’t really matter one iota – just interesting to me.
So what is the Cards history on roster split to begin the year? 13/13 or 12/14 in terms pitchers/position players? Much like Jnevel said, they may keep Fitts possibly for long relief, or someone else, and swap out for another position player. It would seem likely they might dfa one of the relievers to make room Velasquez and Wetherholt. In addition, Prieto 40 man spot may be in jeopardy. Pushard hasn’t pitched that well, but the 13/13 split may help his chances. I also wonder if they might keep,Raquet around as third lefty for a while. And a 60 day stint may be in the Cards for Nootbaar.
Jnevel said:
I think they are all left because they are guys that could fill in for a short-term injury if one occurred and then be DFA after without much risk of losing them. Otherwise, why not just reassign them?
Catchers are easiest to explan. Yerzy and Linarez are there for the simple reason the Cards haven’t cut all the pitchers yet. So they need the extra catchers to catch them. That is especially the case with Herrera’s sore knee. They are the two NRI catchers closest to StL, but Linarez has only two at-bats all spring, so he is close, but not really close!
With Bernal and Crooks both at Memphis plus Yerzy, Linarez is almost certainly going to have to return to Springfield.
C27 asked:
So what is the Cards history on roster split to begin the year?
I have records back to 1996. The most recent time the Cards had only 12 pitchers on Opening Day was pre-COVID, in 2019. 13-13 is the norm.
What they have done is to hold the fifth starter in the minors until his first start. That isn’t always the fifth game because of more open days built into the early schedule. In that case, they rostered an extra reliever until then.
I’d think that Prieto would be the other cut. Rivas, Moore, and Mendoza have gotten more ABs this spring than Prieto, and I would guess they would think one of them could fill in if need be. They already have Saggese and Fermine blocking Prieto.
I wasn’t aware of the potential Urias IL placement. If that happens then that does throw Saggese a lifeline. Otherwise he would be headed to Memphis.
While ST stats can be meaningless it is also true that Velazquez has done everything asked of him to make the team. He has a spring OPS of 1.163. If that isn’t good enough to make the team then why bring him to ST at all?
It is different for a guy like Baez who still has plenty of team control and plenty to prove at AAA.
What they have done is to hold the fifth starter in the minors until his first start.
Isn’t that going to burn an option?
15 days for a pitcher before they can return, barring injury to someone else.
If the last three righties are Soriano, Pushard, Graceffo, then Graceffo is the only one who could be optioned. Barring giving up on Soriano or Pushard, I’d guess that means that Graceffo, Roycroft, and the 6th starter (likely Fitts) would be on the shuttle for the first couple months. Perhaps with Dobbins before too long.
It’s 20 days total during the season Bling, even if its multiple assignments. (Cots)
If he’s your SP5, he’s making a start before day20. He’s back up. If he’s your SP6, 3 weeks down has used an option.
That’s how I’m reading it.
I think the reliever mix will be Svanson, O’Brien, Pushard, Graceffo, Romero, Bruihl, Soriano, with Fitts in long relief. If Fitts has to pitch a number of innings early in the season he will be sent down, with Roycroft being called up. I really prefer Fitts over Pallante, but I feel like the FO will give weight to Pallantes good spring showing. I did see some swing and misses on Pallantes new pitch, a slider. At least I think it’s a new pitch. I also prefer adding Moreno to Roycroft, but Roycroft is on the 40 man roster, and has had a good spring. He also has an option. Raquet may get a look as well soon. To add both Velazquez and Wetherholt there will need to be a 40 man roster spot cleared, likely a reliever or Prieto.
The Cards want Fitts to be a starter. I don’t think they are going to turn him into Steven Matz this fast.
I’ll guess the opening day lineup.
Winn-SS
Wetherholt-2b
Burleson-1b
Herrera-DH
Gorman-3b
Velazquez-Lf
Church-Rf
Pages-C
Scott-CfLiberatore-P
’ll guess the opening day lineup.
Winn-SS
Wetherholt-2b
Burleson-1b
Herrera-DH
Gorman-3b
Velazquez-Lf
Church-Rf
Pages-C
Scott-CfLiberatore-P
I don’t understand why so many think Liberatore is going to save us. Now I’ll grant you that S. Koufax was league average for 5 or 6 seasons before breaking out, but that was one in a million. I’ll also grant that Liberatore has sequentially improved across many metrics, over four seasons, into a decent pitcher.
But this is his fifth season. I expect him to be somewhat better than he was last year. But not THAT much better. (I hope I’m wrong, lol)
Remember the 2005 club, with Carpenter, Mulder, Marquis, Suppan, and Morris in the starting rotation? Would any of the present guys even be starting on that club?Who thinks that Liberatore is going to save us? He’s the best of a below average lot. I do think he’s a viable MLB starter in all likelihood, which is more than I can say for anyone else in the rotation except McGreevy and possibly May (who can’t seem to stay healthy). My hope is that by 2027 he’s the cagey veteran #4 or 5 on a much upgraded staff.
Liberatore made a huge leap forward last season by making 29 starts, avg 5+ IP, respectable ERA. Durability is a key to being good as a pitcher. Staying on the mound enough to learn the art. If he and McGreevy can answer the bell all year it will be huge. Meanwhile, the high octane double digit Ks types are doing what exactly?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.