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Getting excited about Dominican teenagers is a weird ritual that occurs every year. Its like going to New Orleans for Mardi Gras for a few days, dressing up, getting loaded and whooping it up. Then you go home, put on your suit and tie, and get back to adult life until its time to do it again next year.
I agree there is some value in DSL results, but there is unquestionably more risk involved. Anyone remember Malcom Nunez and his 1.271 OPS, 13 HR and 59 RBI in 44 DSL games six years ago? He is the most recent DSL Cards hitter to make these kind of waves.
In contrast, the top US high schoolers most often have participated in various showcases so there is almost always more information about them than a 16-year-old from Barquisimeto, Venezuela, for example. We knew plenty about high schoolers Carlson, Gorman, Walker, Winn, Hence, etc. the day they were drafted. Sure, there was still risk, but less so.
I respect BA but I can get more aggressive when I see the players with my own eyes and informally ask coaches about them. I have an extended stay ahead at this spring training and two guys I will be seeking out are Rodriguez and Ramirez. Maybe Padilla will be in Jupiter, too. In the meantime, I am not ranking them overly aggressively. I would rather they earn their way up than to have to drop them because I was reaching based on others’ opinions. I use our monthly in-season rankings for the very purpose of making regular adjustments, rather than re-ranking just once or twice a year.
There is a prominent site that has been known to place a totally unexpected guy at #10 in their team rankings. I think they do it for the attention it gets them. Being first to “discover” a hot new prospect really matters to some, and later on, no one notices when almost all the time, the guy turns out not to be top 10-worthy.
Of course, these ratings are yours, not mine. But since mine were mentioned, I thought I would share my view directly.
Rank on!
I agree there is some value in DSL results, but there is unquestionably more risk involved. Anyone remember Malcom Nunez and his 1.271 OPS, 13 HR and 59 RBI in 44 DSL games six years ago? He is the most recent DSL Cards hitter to make these kind of waves.
Yes, he was getting first place votes that year. Ultimately, he made the majors, but certainly wasn’t a top prospect for any team.
I’m glad you covered the false statement that Bob made that we have as much information on the DSL guys as US high schoolers. It’s much easier to rank a recent high school drafted than an overseas sign. About the only data we do have for the international signings are their signing value (which may not always be an accurate assessment of the general consensus on their talent, but is a place to start) and the notoriously fickle stats from the DSL.
I agree there is far more information about High Schoolers than DSL guys. The DSL guys are basically coming from the shadows with stats that while not meaningless, are highly questionable due to small sample size and uneven competition.
I do like Albert’s point about value. I would take Bedell’s value over Ramirez. I think I’d take Bedell over Rodriguez too given that catchers are so difficult to evaluate and take forever to cultivate. But I can see why you’d say you’d rather have Padilla given his upside versus Bedell who has the upside of a number 4 starter but who probably doesn’t get that far. Assuming health, Bedell has the floor of a solid middle reliever. Padilla has the floor of a guy that never gets above Low A. So pick your poison. But you might be right on overall value. Oh, and thanks for making my points clearer on Prieto. He can’t run, he can’t play defense at an acceptable level, he doesn’t walk, and he currently hits around league average at Memphis or just above. He doesn’t strike out much, but is that really that valuable given everything else? That’s why I have him at 31.
Minor correction. Nunez has yet to reach MLB, or even make the Pirates’ 40-man roster. He is currently Rule 5 eligible and not likely to be selected. You may have been thinking about Elehuris Montero instead.
I don’t want to hijack the voting so will step away…
My votes…
15. Ian Bedell. Solid (but unspectacular) stuff, solid (but unspectacular) stats. Back end starter or maybe a mid leverage reliever, for me. He will get a shot in St Louis.
16. Matt Koperniak. I’m sort of amazed that no one has voted for him yet. The Cards have added him to the 40 man, which signals that they at least intend to explore giving him a shot. My ranking is lower than my feelings on his talent (which I have around 10th) because I’m not certain he will actually get a real shot with St Louis to prove his worth. I’m on record saying that I would trade Nootbaar for pitching help and insert this guy in LF in a heartbeat. He’s hit .300ish just about every stop and seems to be developing his power stroke. I’d see him as a .275/.330/.400 type of guy at the big league level, which with solid defense makes him a regular. He’s a little old for a prospect, but the COVID stuff makes a mess of everything. Bottom line, my #16 rank for Matt feels like it could be too low if he actually gets some run going forward, and certainly too high if he sits in Memphis for a year and goes elsewhere to play.
Minor correction. Nunez has yet to reach MLB, or even make the Pirates’ 40-man roster. He is currently Rule 5 eligible and not likely to be selected. You may have been thinking about Elehuris Montero instead.
I don’t want to hijack the voting so will step away…
No, I was thinking of Nunez. I really thought he got a cup of tea in Pittsburgh at one point but otherwise was stuck in the minors. Guess it was one of those Mandela effect situations. Thanks for the correction.
On another note, voting closes in 3.5 hours, at 12 PM CT/1 PM ET, so get your vote in! I know that Pugs still has to make his #16 vote, and others have not weighed in. It’s a close tally so a couple of people can reall sway the final results!
I am skeptical about ranking guys from the DSL and FCL (or whatever it is now called). I remember becoming enamored with Darlin Moquete after his 1.030 OPS in the DSL in 2019. Last I checked he is now 25 years old and in Peoria.
I wait until guys reach Palm Beach or Peoria before I start taking them seriously.
The issue I have with it is you have to extrapolate from a point that doesn’t mean anything based upon data that doesn’t mean anything.
I do think it’s great that Bob is bringing these guys up and that he’s been able to share what others think of them. That helps our discussion since none of us is an expert evaluator.
This creates the opportunity to discuss would you rather have $10 today or a 10% chance at $200 tomorrow? That’s all this is. Weighing out risk vs reward. DSL prospects all have extreme risk attached and the better ones have high reward potential because they are so far away and you just don’t know what they’ll grow up to be. I like having the different perspectives – even though I roll my eyes every time I see Brian’s ranking of Pete Hansen far higher than I think it should be! It’s still fun to discuss and maybe even learn a few things along the way.
So keep the discussion going TCN!
Hey all, I’m going to need a little bit longer than noon to get today’s rankings finished up. Traffic, lol. So, expect the update a touch late.
Ok, so here is your update. Your #15 prospect is Ian Bedell, RHP. Your #16 prospect is Matt Svanson, RHP.
1. Quinn Mathews, LHP
2. JJ Wetherholt, IF
3. Tink Hence, RHP
4. Jimmy Crooks, C
5. Michael McGreevy, RHP
6. Thomas Saggese, IF
7. Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
8. Chase Davis, OF
9. Leonardo Bernal, C
10. Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
11. Gordon Graceffo, RHP
12. Tekoah Roby, RHP
13. Sem Robberse, RHP
14. Max Rajcic, RHP
15. Ian Bedell, RHP
16. Matt Svanson, RHPVoting is now open for the #17 and 18 prospects. Voting will close on Thursday, November 28th. Time will be a little flexible as it’s Thanksgiving and so we will give folks some grace. It will be sometime between 10 am and 4 pm, in all likelihood. If things look like they are going one way fast, we will call it earlier but if I get to the tally around noon, we will do it then. It may be a little later, of course.
The vote for this last round went as such:
Bedell 10
Svanson 6
Prieto 5
Padilla 5
Showalter 4
R Rodriguez 3
Saladin 1
Koperniak 1
Cho 1
Baez 1
Gastelum 1#17. Brian Holiday (I’m biased a little being a Oklahoma State alum and got to see him pitch a few times in person)
#18. Koperniak17. Showalter
18. GranilloI still see Granillo as our best relief prospect over Svanson and Gastelum. But the caveat for him is control and getting a little better results against left handed hitters. I love his approach and attitude. He’s definitely the kind of guy you want on the mound closing games – if he can reign in the control issues. This one is more about what I see rather than what the stats tell me.
#17. Prieto
#18. KoperniakI like Prieto in a UT role. He has a chance to see time in STL in 2025.
I think Koperniak could make the opening day roster. I know that he is penalized because of his age but the bottom line for me is can he play or not. Mike Yastrzemski didn’t make it to the majors until age 28 and has had a nice career. I am not saying Koperniak will do that but let’s give him a shot.
17. Matt Koperniak, Brendan Donovan of the outfield.
18. Darlin Saladin. Yet another righty, he pitched well in Palm Beach and then fared decently enough in Peoria. You’ve got to like the guys who keep their WHIPs low even while moving levels. The slider-change profile will hopefully continue to be refined so he won’t have huge splits (he’s been better against righties in 2023 and lefties in 2024 here in the US).
17. Koperniak (wish I had remembered to vote for him sooner)
18. Brian Holiday (based primarily on his 2024 third round draft status, but also because our Okie poster, osuagec, saw him pitch)
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