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According to CBS sports
St. Louis went 1 for 11 with runners in scoring position and is 9 for 70 (.129) in its last 12 games. The last-place Cardinals are 7-15 in one-run games and dropped eight games behind Pittsburgh, the NL Central leader. St. Louis has lost seven of its last nine.
Reminds me of that game a week or two ago when they left the bases loaded three ties in one game.
Yeah, it’s been real bad, Lou. June’s looking worse than April in which they started 3-6. Like you mentioned, this month’s W/L record consists of 2-7 and comes with a weak pulse.
My observation from today is that at this point Waino is nothing more than a poor man’s Kyle Hendricks. He has to really exert himself to deliver an 85 mph pitch. It is sad to say but he is not a big league caliber starter any longer. I hope he didn’t come back just to get to 200 wins.
And what is even worse is that he is not even our worst starter and since this team is going nowhere we really have nothing to lose but to continue to give him opportunities for 200.
At this point I really don’t care if the Brewers, Pirates, Cubs, and Reds are winning or not. We need to just worry about our own business. Winning the division and getting to the playoffs shouldn’t even be on our radar at the moment. We just need to figure out a way to not be the worst Cardinal team in the last 30 years, figure out which players to sell off, and get ready for 2024.
The problem with all or nothing is that the nothing happens a lot more than the all. In cases where those odds aren’t approprite for the circumstances, you’re screwed.
In baseball, a lot of times you just need something, and adjusting your approach to improve the odds of getting something is a lost art. The type of approach employed to improve your chances of something also lessens your chances of the all part. For that reason the practice is actively discouraged. The Donovan example illustrates this.
During spring training, it was mentioned that the Cardinals wonks and brass had noted in 2022 Donovan’s OBP (.394) exceeded his SLG (.379). This was concerning, and was the impetus for the swing optimization program aimed at improving exit velocity. He needed to be less about the something and more about the all.
It seems like it would be better to embrace a player’s strengths and attributes, and work with him on maximizing that, rather than trying to force everyone into a one size fits all optimized model. They shouldn’t try to make the something guys into all guys. Instead make them better something guys. You just need something from the top of the order guys. 5 homers is OK if you get on base 40% of the time ahead of the all or nothing guys. Why wouldn’t your performance wonks want to give that guy a program to maybe improve on that 40%, since that is his strength? The reason is that they are focussed on exit velocity and launch angle and barrel rate and so on, and totally absorbed with the numbers and stats. It doesn’t seem to be anyone’s job to think about what could be done with this particular player to improve the team’s chances of winning games.
Bling, how do you know whether the issue with Donovan is a change to his swing or just a natural downturn? Maybe he will come back and return to his 2022 numbers.
Yeah, Wainwright will end his career as one of the best pitchers to ever wear the Cardinal uniform, but it’s obvious that he rarely if ever displays the ability to record an out when he really needs one. We all hope he can attain 200 W’s, but even that’s beginning to seem doubtful. At any rate, no one will fault him for trying and even Bob Gibson held on for a season too long when he went 3-10 with a 5.04 ERA in the last season of career.
forsch31, 65 games is not a huge sample size, so we don’t know if Donovan will return to his 2022 level, just as we don’t know if Gorman will return to his.
I describe how the Cardinal’s org responded to the numbers Donovan put up in 2022, and what the results of that response has been so far. I also offer criticism of how Donovan was handled and suggest it is illustrative of how the org handles player development and performance. I also suggest what I think would be a better approach, also using the Donovan example.
We should be mindful of Donovan’s recent improvement. He seems to be pulling out of his slide, at least somewhat, with his OBP on the rise. He also already has more homers this year (6) than he had all of last year (5). We will just have to wait for the games to be played and see how it turns out.
Wainwright is probably the best option for that rotation slot right now. The alternatives are Woodford, Matz and I guess McGreevy.
I’m reasonably sure that Donovan’s downturn is due to several reasons. One may be a simple case of the rest the league compiling a file on him after his nice rookie season. And in my view, the only two position players on this team who have been given a clearly defined role are Goldschmidt and Arenado. I think that’s had an adverse effect on not only Donovan, but several other young Cardinal members of this roster.
So, Bling, I guess Donovan shouldn’t make adjustments? Even though pitchers will adjust to him, he should just keep the same philosophies and approaches because they will always work?
I have an issue with the implication that the Cardinals forced Donovan to change something in his swing. Everything I am reading says that Donovan went to the Marucci Sports’ Baseball Performance Lab on his own. He also stated that he did not change his swing but did change the bat he uses and also changed his stance. This Lab has also worked with Goldschmidt prior to his MVP campaign. Also, Francisco Lindor, Buster Posey, Nate Lowe and Josh Jung. One thing that metrics are showing is that Donovan is chasing more pitches than he did last year. That’s on him, not the Cardinals.
I have a problem with the way the Cardinals seem to be falling behind the times when it comes to developing talent and using data to help players achieve success. That’s the same as a lot of posters on here. However, just because a player trends down, that doesn’t mean the Cardinals messed with him. The book is out on Donovan and he must change to pitchers’ changes.
Just to clarify Donovan’s 2022 and 2023, there was a time period in 2022 that Donovan hit .262/.358/.345/.703 over 241 plate appearances. Going into the game today, he was at .249/.347/.365/.712 over 219 plate appearances. There is not much difference in those numbers. We will just have to wait and see how he finishes this year before deciding if he is the same hitter or not.
forsch31 said:
Everything I am reading says that Donovan went to the Marucci Sports’ Baseball Performance Lab on his own.
At Brian’s request, earlier in this thread (10:09 am yesterday) I supplied a quote and citation backing my position. I would ask you to provide an example or two of what you are reading.
Donovan was a huge regression candidate after 2022, and I said it all winter. All those HBP’s like Sosa did the season before, and a .330 BAbip with a very nice BB% gave him an OBP that wasn’t sustainable, you know, wonk stuff.
The narrative he has recently improved and re-earned the leadoff spot is false. He’s sharing the leadoff spot with Edman only because Nootbaar is IL.
His April and May ops+ are both 98, his June is 111. The improvement is from increased BB/K%, not from abandoning a swing change. Plate discipline (taking) is the opposite from swing changes. The narrative doesn’t fit.
He changed his April 6/16 BB/K, to a 19/16 May/June. His swinging results are basically flat for the season, but the cavemen will be glad to see his .277 BA was his best in April, when the wonks screwed him up.
Bling, in reading that article, there is nothing that says the Cardinals sent him to the training facility and changed his swing. They did give him a strength and agility program to use. When I googled a swing change for Donovan, I found many articles covering it. The ones I read (around 6-7) said he did not change his swing. They said he changed his stance and the bat to get better exit velocity.
As JJ alluded to, those “wonks” didn’t cause Donovan’s problems. He was swinging at more pitches that he either doesn’t hit well or can’t hit. The book is out on him and now he has to adapt.
we should not be starting Waino, just so he can get a certain wins number for personal reasons.
Woodford should be getting more starts and experience… he has a career 3.90 ERA, and certainly needs more starts.Right 552, or get him back in the pen.. he actually was solid when in relief… he may not throw 100, but he is a better pitcher than some of the guys there now.
After his rehab stint, his last outing he was sitting 93-94, which when placed correctly is effective.Bling, the best article I read was by John Denton on MLB.com on March 11. It spells things out pretty clear.
People criticised Shildt for the number of different lineups but Ollie has exceed him by far as to the different lineups.
My biggest criticism is the Cardinals knee jerk reactions. They have changed approach constantly. With talented young players you have to give them time. Gorman is one of the top RBI producers in the league and is still being platooned. Sure he strikes out a lot but he has contributed to a number of victories this year and seems to be really good late in the games.
Guys like he, Donovan, and Walker need to get steady action. They have the ability but need to have a chance to adjust and get things like timing right.
Same thing for the bullpen. Pick your main guys for the long relief, 7th and 8 innings guys and your closer and stick with it until it is obvious that it will not work. Helsley was an all-star closer last year but is not being used like a closer.
I think Nootbar is ok as a leadoff, but you have to have Donovan staying at second and move Goldy to third and drop Gorman to fifth and leave him there. Walker probably needs to be 6th or 7th. I’m ok with Edman 9th.
But pick a lineup and put them out there until it is clear that there is a need for change. And I don’t mean just after 3 or 4 games. Gorman is controlling the strike zone much better but swings through too many pitches. That is a timing issue and is not solved by being on the bench and pinch hitting.
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