2023 StL Game #53: Friday, May 26 at Cleveland

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  • #222240
    ZTR
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    At least the Brewers are getting their asses handed to then…..

    #222241
    1toughdominican
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    Yeah, I don’t think you need anything termed a metric to know who you’d like to see step into the box with the outcome in the balance. Top of my list right now would be Freddie Freeman. Another guy who seemed to always come through that not a lot of people talk about anymore was Paul O’Neill. However, the best I ever saw was a former Cardinal. I’ll let you guess…

    #222243
    1toughdominican
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    Yeah, that’s good, ZTR, but it comes with some pain in knowing that with a big base hit or two in one of the last three innings of tonight’s game, we’d have made up some much needed ground. Oh well.

    #222244
    Jnevel
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    Are you thinking Allen Craig 1TD? That one season he was about the best ever with RiSP. Of course we’d also take The Man or El Hombre.

    #222245
    1toughdominican
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    Musial was before my time, Jnevel, but I saw plenty of both Aaron and Mays when they were still very dangerous and productive and Albert Pujols was the best RH’ed hitter I ever saw play baseball.

    #222246
    CardsRedSox4Ever
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    Close game hits divided by close game at bats for a choke metric. Goldy and Arenado are close to 0 this year I think.

    #222247
    1toughdominican
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    If that’s the way they figure it, I’d have to guess that both the Nootz and Eddie have a pretty good score, 4ev. They both seem to always be in the middle of either getting something started or pushing across a big run in a close game. We saw it tonight and the big kids couldn’t follow suit.

    #222248
    CardsRedSox4Ever
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    I agree, 1td. Those two have really been stepping up.

    #222250
    jj-cf-stl
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    WPA records the amount every PA changes the game, plus or minus, for both teams.

    WPA is context dependent. It considers the score, the amount of outs remaining, etc; all the things we as fans consider.

    On April 12th we hit 3 HR’s. O’Neill tied the game at 1-1 with a second inning HR for a +10% change in WPA.

    In the 4th Arenado hit a 2run HR for +18% WPA, to go ahead 3-1.

    By the top of the 8th it was tied 4-4. Gorman hits a 2run HR for +39% WPA.

    3 different HR’s, but WPA values them differently due to the CONTEXT of the game. As BB would say, “when it matters”.

    #222252
    1toughdominican
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    So, I’m guessing the WPA has a pct. of probability for every type of base hit in the context that a single to push across 2 runs to erase a 2 run deficit would count for just as much as a 2 run HR to erase the same 2 run deficit? And what about a lead-off double when trailing by 1 run or during a tie game. Would it count for as much or more than a subsequent RBI single to push that tying or lead run at 2B across?

    #222255
    blingboy
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    Liberatore’s WPA for Friday’s game was -.157 and Bieber’s was .192, so I take it we were outpitched pretty badly. Thank goodness for advanced metrics or we never would have known.

    #222256
    Lee
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    Libby, had several hard hit balls, but right at our guys…. he was lucky in the first 4 innings, but it
    caught up to him in the 5th. I think if he gets another start, (hopefully this time vs a team with a winning record!), I would like to see how he does. I don’t think he is ready yet.

    #222260
    jj-cf-stl
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    The best way to understand all those possibilities 1td, is to open the live scoreboard at fangraphs, and watch the WPA changes. I have it open every game because I like keeping track of all the numbers. It’s my version of keeping score I guess.
    Edit- I choose the box score tab, which has a live play by play and the running box score totals.

    #222263
    Jnevel
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    I think WPA is a terrible way to measure Libby’s performance yesterday. It in no way measures the quality of his pitches or how he used them in different situations. Of course he looks bad by WPA because he gave up the winning runs and Bieber didn’t.

    I thought Libby pitched well. I’m not going to say he outpitched Bieber or anything crazy like that. But compared to Woodford, our other 6th option (or God help us, Hudson st this point) it is night and day. Libby pitched better than every Woodford start based on pitch location and the quality of his pitches. Is he better than our other 5 starters? Definitely not Mikolas. And I’m pretty sure he’s not better than Montgomery yet either. But he’s somewhere around the rest of them. And while that may not give us a lot of confidence given the results of all of those others so far, the kid is 24 and he doesn’t have many major league innings yet. So there is plenty of room for growth.

    #222264
    blingboy
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    Libby doesn’t seem to have an out pitch, which is why I don’t like him in relief. He got his clock cleaned by the Dodgers in that relief outing. Yesterday in the 5th, it seemed like he couldn’t miss a bat when he really needed to. It causes him to try nibbling at the edges, which he can do when his control is really on and can’t do when it isn’t. Trying to be consistently good in MLB without good stuff is a hard way to go.

    I don’t know, but I suspect, that he is a good illustration of why you have to be cautious about getting too excited about a pitcher well down in the system. A guy can have enough arm to throw it by hitters in A ball, but you can’t just have tunnel vision zeroed in on the radar gun display, getting all giddy like giggling schoolgirls when the hunky star quarterback walks past.

    It is well past the time to take off the hype colored glasses. Without them it can be seen that in terms of results on the mound, there is not a lot of difference between a Liberatore and an Oviedo. I think he is trying to learn how to get by with what he has to work with. He may be making some progress if his better results in AAA earlier this year say anything.

    #222265
    jj-cf-stl
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    I’m glad Libby is up and starting. It’s an investment in our 2024 rotation. Learning how to struggle at mlb and limiting the damage is an acquired skill. Let him work thru areas he needs to improve on.

    We can lose with him, or without him, rather easily. I’m glad he is being allowed to continue to develop at mlb. Anything positive to take from this season is a plus.

    #222268
    Jnevel
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    Bling, I think that’s a fair take. He does struggle some with a strikeout pitch as he learns how to beat MLB hitters.

    I want to walk through what happened to him yesterday. Because it’s important to understand the context. He had pitched 4 innings and given up 1 hit and 2 walks. I’m honestly not sure how good he was for those innings because I was distracted for most of them. But the results were good nevertheless. He just had 2 strikeouts. So not terrific there but he’d thrown a very respectable number of pitches. Then, our young pitcher goes into the 5th in a still 0-0 ballgame. With 2 strikes on a very good hitter in Gimenez, he throws a slider that is about 3 inches inside and it somehow hits Gimenez. Shit he’s thinking. Now the leadoff man is aboard and it really wasn’t Libby’s fault. So he goes after the next hitter. With 2 strikes, he throws a slider down in the zone, but Zunigo makes contact and is able to bloop it out to right in no man’s land. It was a fine pitch. Just unlucky result. And now that’s twice in a row he got unlucky and I’m sure it’s getting in his head. After all, the game is 0-0 and he can’t give up a run. So with 2 guys on base, he wants to try to induce a ground ball to get the double play. And he does! Except that the ground ball just gets through the infield to CF. Triple crap. Now it’s really tense. Bases loaded. Double play would still be nice, but infield decides to play somewhat in to try to get an out at the plate. Libby throws a nice pitch at the very top of the zone and gets the ground ball he’s looking for to turn 2! Except that Arenado is playing in and the ball goes right by him into left field instead of a double play. Bases still loaded. Still no one out. Libby still hasn’t thrown a single pitch down the middle or hung a breaking ball all inning. And in steps Rosario. Libby tries to get the free swinger to chase bad pitches. And he does. Libby never has to throw him an actual strike. It’s exactly what Libby wants to happen. Libby throws a slider well inside and low. Rosario chases it. But the result ends up as a double down the left field line. Maybe the runners on base were giving away pitch location? Maybe not. Either way, he got Rosario to swing at a bad pitch just like he wanted him to.

    The point is that Libby didn’t crack under pressure like some of our pitchers have in these situations. He pitched well and kept getting pretty much the exact results that he wanted. But he just got unlucky.

    #222269
    CardsRedSox4Ever
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    jj-cf-stl, thanks for the stat info on WPA. So for this season, Arenado is -.47 WPA and Goldschmidt is +1.05 where WPA measures the cumulative win-percentage-added per plate appearance. Goldschmidt produces more runs overall, so that makes some sense. A better metric may be “clutch” in fangraphs where a leverage index (LI) is factored into WPA. Interesting that both Arenado and Goldschmidt are negative (-.12 and -.49, respectively). In other words (as fangraphs describes), a .300 hitter who hits .300 in high leverage situations is not considered “clutch.” I think our recent observations of Arenado and Goldy are consistent with their performance in “clutch” at bats.

    #222270
    jj-cf-stl
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    CRS, I see Arenado as a slugger and Goldy as a hitter. Nolan is such a pull hitter we should expect him to be more streaky. Neither are having an MVP candidate start to their season, but there is still two-thirds to go.

    #222271
    bicyclemike
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    The WPA stat is interesting, but I am not real big on it. The reason is that while it makes some sense that a big hit late is more important than one early, the late one may not have matter if the early one never occurred.

    So weighting a home run higher in late-and-close situations is a bit misleading. You could have a two-run honer in the first inning, and go on to win 5-1 with a three-run bomb tacked on in the seventh. Or you could have a two run homer in the first, then trail 4-2 in the seventh and get the three-run bomb to pull out a 5-4 win.

    Basically it takes a full team effort and a full 9 innings or more to win a ball game. That is why I still favor the old fashioned counting stat, RBIs. Give me a guy with a lot of RBIs, and that will be a guy that contributes to a lot of wins.

    #222272
    blingboy
    Participant

    I’m glad Libby is up and starting. It’s an investment in our 2024 rotation.

    We will soon find out how much of an investment. The stretch with no off days ends before Libby’s next turn. Does he replace someone in the rotation? Do they stay with 6? Stay tuned.

    #222278
    gscottar
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    Libby doesn’t seem to have an out pitch

    That is the problem with our entire rotation. That is why it takes our guys 100 pitches to get through five innings. We must lead the universe in 3-2 counts.

    #222292
    jj-cf-stl
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    WPA accounts for that Mike. It’s about the “win” in win probability.

    Yesterday in the bucs vs mariners game it was tied 2-2 in the fifth.
    Reynolds triples and drives in 2 runs, +22 WPA
    Suwinski hits a 2run HR making it 6-2 the same inning, +14 WPA. Less value than the triple because already up by 2 runs.
    KeBryan Hayes is the next batter and hits a solo HR, for +4 WPA. Again less impact to the win with a 4 run lead.

    Suwinski also homers in the 7th for +3 wpa, and later that inning Marciano homers for +1 wpa because it’s now 10-4.

    The triple to take the lead was the highest WPA of the game, not any of the HR’s.
    —-
    What is really fun is watching the lead change multiple times. The WPA swings are significant.

    #222293
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    The WPA stat is interesting, but I am not real big on it. The reason is that while it makes some sense that a big hit late is more important than one early, the late one may not have matter if the early one never occurred.

    So weighting a home run higher in late-and-close situations is a bit misleading. You could have a two-run honer in the first inning, and go on to win 5-1 with a three-run bomb tacked on in the seventh. Or you could have a two run homer in the first, then trail 4-2 in the seventh and get the three-run bomb to pull out a 5-4 win.

    Basically it takes a full team effort and a full 9 innings or more to win a ball game. That is why I still favor the old fashioned counting stat, RBIs. Give me a guy with a lot of RBIs, and that will be a guy that contributes to a lot of wins.

    #222294
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    The WPA stat is interesting, but I am not real big on it. The reason is that while it makes some sense that a big hit late is more important than one early, the late one may not have matter if the early one never occurred.

    So weighting a home run higher in late-and-close situations is a bit misleading. You could have a two-run honer in the first inning, and go on to win 5-1 with a three-run bomb tacked on in the seventh. Or you could have a two run homer in the first, then trail 4-2 in the seventh and get the three-run bomb to pull out a 5-4 win.

    Basically it takes a full team effort and a full 9 innings or more to win a ball game. That is why I still favor the old fashioned counting stat, RBIs. Give me a guy with a lot of RBIs, and that will be a guy that contributes to a lot of wins.

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