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8:45 p.m.
LHP Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 4.84) vs. RHP Alex Cobb (0-1, 2.79)
BSM // KMOX
(and Bally Sports Southeast/Southwest)Nice win Sunday, but if we keep that up we will lose our chance to draft the next Mark Appel.
Win pct is now .409 which equates to 66-96.
Giants aren’t good.
Maybe we break the streak of losing the first game of every series….
Gotta reel in the teams in front of us one at a time
Get to third place then set the focus on 2nd.
Even if the Cards catch fire this is likely a month long hole they have dug themselves….
Always love these late night west coast games for the Redbirds. Looking forward to these next three night games at Seals Stadium in San Francisco. I look for Montgomery to have a good outing in a pitchers park in this one.
I am calling this one 6-3 St. Louis with Arenado getting off the schneid with a long dong.
r/Esteemed Rat
Something has to give…
Great stat from @RandyKarraker this morning: #STLCards and #SFGiants go into tonight’s matchup with identical 0-7 records in the first game of series.
— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) April 24, 2023
Some good thoughts, analysis and discussion on the Sunday game thread. On the batting order, I like Notty in the top spot, at least for now. Like the way he hits to all fields – like Donovan did last year.
I also like Burly in the two slot against righties, with maybe Carlson there versus lefties. Then go Goldy, Arenado, Gorman, and drop Contreras to six.
This season keeps bringing back the ‘70s to me. Former Cardinals having success elsewhere while we are mediocre, and the Pirates are good. The big misfire is that the Reds and Athletics are not good – the A’s are downright terrible in fact. Maybe we will release someone and they will be picked up by Oakland and be an all-star by mid season. Taylor Motter here’s your chance!! 🙂
Oh, and if I am managing, Nolan Gorman is my regular second baseman. No more DH for him. DH is probably a duo of Burleson and Walker, with Contreras on occasion.
Yeah, no question as to Gorman needing to be placed in the teeth of the order with the way he’s swinging it. If he continues to rip it up, I’d be tempted to place him at clean-up and have the other Nolan slotted at 5th, but I’m still a bit uncomfortable with him over on the right side of the IF. And yeah, the Pirates are looking good thus far, but I think they’ll taper off. I hope so anyway. I remember those 70’s Pirates pounding away on my favorite team for a decade. They could really hit the baseball and punish opposing pitchers and those black and gold uniforms made them look that much more intimidating. Everyone knows about Clemente and Stargell, but they were a nightmare up and down the order with Oliver, Madlock and especially Parker. And it seemed like the Cardinals could never beat either Candelaria or Blyleven. In any event, I’ve never felt sorry for the Pirates being cellar dwellers in recent years. They once inflicted too much pain for me to ever afford any sympathy to those savage Buccos.
Paul DeJong has been worth .2 WAR in each MLB game he’s played this season. So yeah, assuming he wasn’t injured for the first few weeks, he’d be on pace for 32+ WAR. MVP season folks. No question about it.
Gorman’s BABiP is .357, so as I understand it, we should expect significant regression. Walker’s is .353.
BABiP is especially useful in promoting or attacking a given narrative. Sometimes it is described as reflecting good luck vs bad luck, and sometimes solid contact vs weak contact. Which of those is promoted depends on what supports the argument being made.
1TD, I remember the 1979 Pirates like it was yesterday. I can recite most of their roster without looking it up. They had an OF of Bill Robinson, Omar Moreno, and Dave Parker and had an IF of Bill Madlock, Tim Foli, Rennie Stennett, and Willie Stargell. The catcher was Ed Ott and the closer was Kent Tekulve. They also had this guy off the bench named John Milner. He was a Cardinal killer for sure. Those were the glory days for the Bucs.
Anyway, it would be nice to finally win the first game of a series. Bling is guaranteeing a victory tonight so who am I to disagree with that? If Monty can give us six solid innings I like our chances.
I looks like we are facing Alex Cobb, a righty. 0-1 in 4 starts. He is throwing it over the plate (BB/9 1.4) but is very hittable (H/9 12.1), giving him a WHIP of 1.50. ERA is better than I would expect at 2.79.
Can’t wait until Gorman fails BB? Average BAbip is .300 which was Gorman’s last year actually .301. I don’t understand why you keep expecting Gorman to be bad.
Its not that I expect him to be bad. But he was bad last year and a measure of sobriety should be maintained when talking about 20 games this year. Countless guys have gotten hot for a 20 game stretch and then regressed. The BABiP suggests he will not stay as hot as he has been, but I hope he stays in the middle of the order while he is hot.
If you were around then, who can forget the Lumber Company of the 70s? But please, no Sister Sledge references.
Does Sports Illustrated still produce a paper product? Anyway, do you remember the “They Said It” section in SI? It was a section for short quotes of current interest, often with some humor. One I remember from the 70s was said by a pitcher (don’t remember who) talking about facing the Pirates. He said some teams are good fastball hitters, and when you throw them a fastball, they say oh goodie here comes a fastball. Other teams are good curveball hitters, and when you throw them a curveball, they say oh goodie here comes a curveball. The Pirates don’t care, they just say oh goodie here comes a baseball.
When Gorman cools off, and he will for a spell, play him daily.
Edman is currently posting a career low K% and a career high BB%.
Sadly, the SI brand was sold by Time to a brand investment group. They leased the editorial rights to the SI name to the guys who once ran Scout (poorly). Yes, they do still have a print magazine, but I haven’t picked one up in years.
BABiP is especially useful in promoting or attacking a given narrative. Sometimes it is described as reflecting good luck vs bad luck, and sometimes solid contact vs weak contact. Which of those is promoted depends on what supports the argument being made.
High BAbip + high hard hit rate = hits thr ball hard
High Babip + low hard hit rate = lucky (hitting it where they aint)I’ll be the first to admit I said Gorman would be no better than Russell Braynan from watching video of him in the minors. But he has GREATLY shortened his swing, it’s even shorter this year than last, and his pitch selection has gotten much better. Up and in and still where to get him out. His ability to continue to make adjustments will be his key. I really hope he does and I’ll gladly eat the crow, not after 20 games though, 142 to go before I start even considering eating the crow.
1. Lars Nootbaar (L) CF
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
3. Nolan Gorman (L) DH
4. Willson Contreras (R) C
5. Alec Burleson (L) RF
6. Tyler O’Neill (R) LF
7. Brendan Donovan (L) 3B
8. Paul DeJong (R) SS
9. Tommy Edman (S) 2BGorman will no doubt go through some rough stretches. But right now he is hitting the ball hard on a consistent basis. Given his pedigree and success in the minor leagues, I would start the clock on him as an every day regular player. He needs the reps, both on offense and defense. It looks like he is ready to be in there and management needs to let him ride through the inevitable slumps.
The fact that there’s always a chance that Gorman could revert to what we saw last season is another reason for slotting him up higher in the order while he’s still ripping the baseball. I’ll also say that if he doesn’t cool off too much it would create an opportunity for a power hitting right, left, right, scenario in the middle of the order that could make things really difficult for opposing pitchers and managers. And if Burleson were to catch fire and enter into the mix, it could really get interesting. At any rate, I think the Redbirds feature two of the best young talents in baseball in Gorman and Walker.
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