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stlCard25…Yeah, 3-3 on the left coast would be perfectly fine and even to go 2-4 would be no cause to trip an emergency alarm. You take the field wanting to win every game, but that’s not going to happen. Obviously, the key is to be ready to play and to field the best 9 players available.
I’d accept 3-3, but I’d really like to see us punch the Dodgers in the mouth and show em we won’t be an easy out in October. I think our lineup could cause them issues, with all the lefties they have in the rotation.
Everyone needs a breather, but I’m not crazy about off days and I’ve grown to really dread the long winter off-season. From my boyhood until about 40 years of age, I was crazy about NFL football and could easily endure no Big League baseball for 5 or 6 months. Last night I tried to watch the Packers/Bears game on NBC to pass the idle time hoping for some good sports action. No use…I found it to be as mundane and wearisome as cleaning out the rain gutters. Bill Veeck may have said it best. “There are only two seasons…winter and baseball.”
That could happen, but as Pugs said a 74% chance of winning the division seems way too low. I would put it at about 97.5%.
This is a problem that can be solved similar to the classical Stats & Probability 101 binomial distribution type problem, e.g., if you flip a fair coin 30 times what’s the probability you get 8 or more heads. Use 30 because that’s the number of Cards games left (14) plus Brewers games left (16). Use 8 because that’s the magic number. The probability for 8 or more is 0.997 or 99.7%.
That’s the simple way, but there are other nuances to this problem. Don’t read the rest of this paragraph if you feel you’ve already had enough math. Does each game have a 50/50 probability like a coin flip. No. But if you use the Cards’ and Brewers winning percentages thus far this season as the probability for future outcomes, then the probability for the Cards winning the division goes up. Another nuance is the Cards and Brewers play each other twice, so it’s really only 28 games, and you’d have to decide what probability to use for those two outcomes. One other nuance is the magic number is 8, but if the Cards win one or two of the remaining games against the Brewers, then the magic number is really just 7 (the magic number to tie for the division). That’s because if the Cards win at least one of the two remaining games against the Brewers, they will have the tiebreaker. Yes, I’m a math, computer science, and engineering nerd. Or maybe wonk is a better term, I’ve seen bling use that one.
EuroDandy…Haha! It’s my firm belief that if the study of baseball was a required course in grade school, the entire country would qualify for a PhD in mathematics!
I know 1td, it seems like baseball has always been more about numbers than other sports. Tennis (another sport I follow closely) has really amped up its metrics analysis in recent years. Things like the majority of points are won on 5 or fewer shots, so what’s the best way to construct those short points (shot direction, cross court, change direction, etc.) to win more of them. Also a lot about court positioning. It goes on and on. Scouting too, e.g., is your opponent’s backhand or forehand more likely to crumble in the high leverage parts of the match.
Since there’s no game today, unless an additional one is requested, only one baseball trivia question will be put forth to our elite squad of experts and it should be an easy one…
Without looking it up, who was the player who collected more RBI’s than any other Cardinal during the 2011 WS?
It could be a tough trip but I think we will show up and do what we need to do. 4-4 would be fine and 3-5 wouldn’t be terrible considering our cushion. The Dodgers will no doubt be tough but the Padres are very beatable. Soto hasn’t made them much better that I can tell. Since August 1 they are 24-20. Big whoop. As for the Brewers, we usually play well at their stadium.
EuroDandy…I’m kidding, but I’m not. I may have benefitted more from reading the flip sides of trading cards as a young boy than from any time spent in the classroom. I’m no math wizard, but I’m still pretty proficient at culculating basic equations and percentages in my mind without the benefit of pencil and paper or any sort of machine. I genuinely believe it’s ingrained muscle memory related to those old baseball equations. I’m often amused at how many highly intelligent young people simply cannot perform basic math equations without using their phones as a calculator.
1td, Hamilton is the first guy who I thought of for your question. Or were you talking just about Cardinal players?
I think Freese led the Cards in RBIs during the 2011 playoffs. But I’ll guess Albert was the RBI leader for the Series, thanks to the 3 homer game.
Neither Freese or Pujols led the Cardinals in RBI’s in the 2011 WS. Although it doesn’t apply to the question, Mike Napoli and not Josh Hamilton, led the Rangers in RBI’s with 10. Hamilton collected 6 RBI’s in that WS and almost sent me into cardiac arrest when he hit that 2 run tater off of Motte in the visitor half of the 10th in the 6th game…
1td, thought you said it was easy? Since it’s a Card, I woulda gone with stlcard25’s guesses.
And gotta admit, I was thinking Hamilton because that homerun you speak of left a lasting memory for me. I also will never forget the TV broadcast focusing on Hamilton jogging off the field for a few seconds after Freese’s Game 6 walk off, emphasizing the highs and lows of competition for a guy in just a short time span.
Although Lance Berkman led all players for both teams in all three categories of hits, batting average and runs scored, with 11 hits, a .423 BA and 9 runs scored, he “only” collected 6 RBI’s in that WS, which is 3 short of the Redbird leader in that category. Nice guess, Rats, but no oven mitt…
I’ll also say that if it weren’t for the legendary heroics of David Freese in game 6, Lance Berkman should have undoubtedly been named MVP of that epic WS. Berkie could flat out hit and when he was with the Astros, no one scared me more than he did when he stepped into the box against the Cardinals.
Ratsbuddy…WINNER! That’s right. Yadier Molina led all Redbirds with 9 RBI’s in the 2011 WS. David Freese placed second with 7, and Albert Pujols showed with 6 RBI’s.
Hmmm…Macanudo cigar? Please tell me that’s not one of those “recreational” brands…Haha!
Macanudo???
That’s a top of the line cigar. It’s NOT one of those “brown cigarettes” that some people smoke and claim they are cigars. Just check out Macanudo, you will like their ratings.
Like ITD, sports helped hone my math skills. I come about math naturally I think, as my dad was a high school math teacher. I ended up becoming an accounting/finance professional, so genetics seemed to be at work there.
But looking at the statistics on baseball cards got me started. Then where I really took a jump forward was getting the APBA baseball game at age 12, and manually keeping statistics for the games. My dad taught me how to quickly calculate batting averages using a slide rule. ERAs were a little tougher but my formula was (ERx9)/IP. I could often calculate the ERx9 in my head, then quickly do the number divided by IP on the slide rule. 9s are pretty easy to multiply because when the numbers get bigger, you use ten and then remove whatever you need to deduct. So like 9×37, just do 370 (10×37) minus 37, or 333. I could do that in my head all day long, and then take the 333 divided by the guy’s innings pitched on the slide rule.
But ask me to calculate anything on a slide rule today and I could not do it.
BTW, Euro’s calcs on probability are good. Like he said with the coin, you have a 50/50 shot. To get two heads in a row it drops to a .25 chance, or 1 in 4. Keep flipping and the odds drop by half again each time. It basically shows that 74% number is bogus, which a little simple math and logic show us.
Ratsbuddy…Although I’m not a cigar aficionado, I’m certain that if you partake of the Macanudo, it must be a first rate, top-shelf choice of cigarro. I was just having a bit of fun referring to the “recreational” brand as one of those sorts of smokes that are obtained from what I understand to be termed a “dispensary.” Haha!
BikeMike…That’s basically the method I use to calculate simple equations in my coconut…Haha! The number 10 is normally the starting point and like you mentioned, simple subtraction takes care of the rest. My mind doesn’t move as fast as it once did, but my proficiency at calculating numbers in my head remains as good or better than a lot of younger people I know that are very intelligent. I think that’s because it was out of necessity. As a kid, I never had a telephone tattooed to my hip pocket…
Slide rule, huh? I remember being taught how to use one, but forget which grade. I’d have to see one again to know if I remember how to use it. I wonder if it’s still taught in modern curricula?
How about an abacus? I remember that too, probably in 1st grade.
Technology probably has made doing raw mental arithmetic more challenging for younger people. You hear about it also with cashiers returning change to customers nowadays. Even in the early 80s when I graduated, engineering professors didn’t want us to do much arithmetic on tests and exams. Just wanted us to set the problems up to demonstrate knowledge of the solution. They’d say they weren’t testing us on how well we could punch calculators, and said if you waste time on arithmetic, you’d have a hard time finishing the test in the allotted time.
Even given all that, I still doubt anybody has had trouble adding up all the Cardinals’ runs lately.
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