- This topic has 230 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 10 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
8:40 p.m.
RHP Adam Wainwright (11-9, 3.29) vs. RHP Mike Clevinger
BSM // TBS // KMOX
Also BSSE and BSSW+Just win one of these three. That’s all the Redbirds need to do in this series. Just win one of the three and that will be good enough. However, getting that one win in this series might prove to be a challenge. The Padres are hanging on to the last wild card spot but just barely.
Remember folks, we have Pittsburgh for six straight games to end the season thanks to the lockout. And the last three are at Pittsburgh. But……while we are playing Pittsburgh the Brewers finish the season with seven HOME games against Miami and Arizona. They might very well go 7-0 in those games.
I am telling everyone this NL Central is in no way, shape, or form wrapped up yet.
We have a 74% chance of winning the division. Our magic # is 8 and we have 30 chances to get those 8. We have 14 games left and the Brewers have 16 = 30.
GameCard…Obviously the Cardinals hold a tremendous advantage and are in the proverbial driver’s seat to win the NLC. And although I’ve never considered myself to be overly pessimistic, I’ve learned from practical experience that nothing is ever finished until the arithmetic says so. Therefore, until all of the other teams in the NLC have been mathematically eliminated from contention, as a baseball and Redbird fan, I reserve the right to sweat bullets and break furniture until the Cardinals are crowned NLC Champs…Haha!
We have a 74% chance of winning the division.
Put in perspective, these odds would be akin to a .260 hitter getting a base hit……which happens very often. The odds of our Cards winning their division has to be more in the neighborhood of 95%.
And there’s a reason San Diego is fighting for their wild card lives…..they are nowhere near an elite ball club. We’ll get your 1 win at Jack Murphy stadium, Rat…… maybe even 2.
I wouldn’t worry about the offense that much. Even the 2001 Seattle Mariners that won a record 116 games went 14 innings once with only scoring one run. Another time they went 18 innings and only scored two runs. They actually did the latter twice.
I just hope the New Yorkers, this time the Mets, can do us a favor or two and win two of three at Milwaukee. They are fighting for the #2 seed with the Braves so hopefully they will come and play with some intensity.
I’d rather see MIL sweep the Mets and give the Cardinals a chance at the second seed. The Brewers aren’t going to catch the Redbirds.
And Goldschmidt can kiss the triple crown goodbye. He now trails Freddie Freeman by about ten points in the batting race. And he’s not homered, what, about once in the last couple of weeks? This is a really bad time for him to go cold. If he doesn’t get going he is going to lose the MVP award as well.
1toughdominica
n wrote:I’d rather see MIL sweep the Mets and give the Cardinals a chance at the second seed. The Brewers aren’t going to catch the Redbirds.
Let’s hope and pray that does NOT happen. If Milwaukee sweeps then we miss out on the NL Central title and become a wild card team.
Haha…A WC team? What makes you think the Redbirds will be able to outpace Phillie and SD, Rats? The doomsday clock never stops ticking…HAHA!
They will win the division, I’m not worried about that. But if they don’t start hitting they won’t come close of taking 2 of 3 from Darvish, Snell, Musgrove or from Nola, Wheeler, Suarez
Well they will probably limp into the playoffs as the division winner. Though saying we have the pirates on the schedule doesn’t mean anything. We barely took 3 out of 5 vs the reds. I didn’t see anything great coming out of their hands most of the time. We just didn’t hit. So the pirates can give us equal fits if we don’t hit
Clevinger has been hit pretty hard lately, but we’ve not exactly hit anything lately. It looked like we’d face two lefties after this, but I see that San Diego lined up Musgrove instead for game 3.
I’m quite confident our Birdies will sail into the playoffs, almost certainly as Central division winners, despite the reading on Rat’s doomsday dials. Beyond that I wouldn’t wager a pair of dirty Cubs socks on their advance, no matter whom we draw, though I fervently hope we at least take the pennant. I will be saving some of my best din-dins for the post-season.
Rah Cardinals!
There really is no drama concerning the NLC so I see no need to contrive any. It would be nice to have a little momentum going into the playoffs but the reality is that the w-l records are all wiped clean once the postseason begins.
I’m all for getting the lull out of the team, now. If they wait until the post season to hit a lull, it will be a short one.
It is true that won loss records do reset for the playoffs so every team starts off with same record. What doesn’t reset is the talent. But you never know.
With a comfortable 8 game cushion at this juncture, to ponder the possibility of the Cardinals not claiming the NLC crown is almost on par with proposing the possibility that water’s not wet. My primary thought regarding the Brewers, is that their survival instincts somehow motivate them to play well enough this week to sweep the Mets in order to increase the slim chances of the Redbirds obtaining a second seed. The Braves are still slated for what may be a very competitive 4 game series at Philly and their second to last series of the regular season is at home vs. the Mets. My hope is that the stars somehow align for that 3 game Mets/Braves series to be one of attrition to allow the Cardinals a chance to grab a second seed. As for the Redbirds, they obviously need to conjure up the spirit of Al Davis and, “Just Win, Baby!”
If our club just goes 7-7 in these last 14 games, the Crew would have to run the table, go 16-0 to end up tied for the division crown. And let’s say we tank, and go 3-11 down the stretch. The Crew would need to go 12-4 to tie for the division lead, or 13-3 to overtake us.
While it is never over until it is over, and the ’64 Phillies are always in the back of our minds, it is an incredibly long-shot to not win the division. And while the Phillies were dropping 10 in a row back in our childhood (well, some of our childhoods), we won 8 straight during that time. So here it would have to be a situation where we were real bad, much worse than we have played all year, and the Brewers were real good at the same time, much better than they have played all year.
That could happen, but as Pugs said a 74% chance of winning the division seems way too low. I would put it at about 97.5%.
It’s hard to maintain urgency and intensty when you have a cushion. But is dangerous to get into a situation where you have to ramp back up for post season.
8 games up with 14 to play is pretty formidable. Especially considering that 6 of those are against the Pirates. I know…people will point to the last few series as evidence that anything can happen. Yet, the Cards won the series against the Reds, split with Milwaukee and won the series in Pittsburgh. In fact, the Cards have only lost two series since the All Star break, and one was the first series back.
At worst, the Cards go 3-3 vs the Pirates. You figure they have to win 1 out west. Split with Milwaukee. That’s 5-9 at worst, to finish with 92 wins. The Brewers need to go 14-2 to tie up.
Personally, I like the Cards to go 3-3 out west, split with Milwaukee and then 4-2 against the Pirates to finish up. 95 wins sounds nice. I think the offense will be tuned just right to head into October and make some noise.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.