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Please explain this to me… In the context of a team rebuilding for the future, why would you trade 28yr old Brenden Donovan, one of our two or three best players, who is relatively inexpensive and can handle well just about any role you may need to fill for the next 10 years or so. Unless you get two of him back in trade (sarcasm), how does trading Donovan make the team any better?
Sometimes I think we overcomplicate these things…
There are clearly pressing needs on this team, but Donovan can help with a few of them. For example, we need more consistent production from our second baseman, so move Gorman out in favor of Donovan and get what you can for Gorman. Donovan gives us the option to upgrade several positions in a similar way.
Donovan can be the key to a successful rebuild, allowing the Cards to shop for the best available young player rather than the best available young 5, 7 or 9… Find the best fill for any position using truly “upgradable” guys as currency and backfill the position as need with Donovan.
He can bring back more for his 2026 and 2027 seasons for the long term Cardinals than he will before he is a FA in 2028. In which he would become expensive. 2028 is likely the earliest that the Cardinals are legit contenders.
With Winn at SS, JJW at 2nd and hopefully Jesus Baez or Deniel Ortiz at 3rd by then, they aren’t going to give a 31 year old the contract he will want.
Do they need to do a lot more to be more to not be the 2025 Rockies/White Sox in 2026, 100% yes, is not cashing in Donnie a bad move for the organization while his value is at it’s highest, 1,000,000% yes.Here’s how I look at the Donovan situation.
Donovan is a 3-4 WAR player who will make just 5-6 million bucks in 2026, and a few million more in 2027. If the Cardinals could tomorrow sign in free agency a 3-4 WAR outfielder or starting pitcher for two years and a grand total of roughly $15MM, they would have to be crazy NOT to do so. Right?
The Birds are basically an average team right now. You trade Arenado to make room for Wetherholt, and maybe trade Contreras to put Burly at first base. Then you sign a Kyle Gibson/Lance Lynn type of inexpensive veteran righty starter, because the current StL pitching coach/manager actually did a fine job with those two guys.
If Wetherholt is very good, as he might be, you have a slightly above average team — with a much, much lower payroll than in 2025. Then a small shrewd midseason addition at the trade deadline, and you’re a wildcard contender at the very least.
There’s your rudimentary blueprint for gutting payroll while still improving the team, and maybe even getting to October baseball. But trading Brendan Donovan and/or gracing Ollie with a contract extension sends such a horrible message to the fans, that attendance will continue to plummet. Viewership, too, in my case.
Well they are shown the door now but not too long ago that wasn’t the case. Remember the extensions to Waino, Yadi, Carp, and Mikolas? And those guys weren’t even in their prime like Donovan currently is.
I am sure the Cardinals know that keeping Donovan makes the team better in 2026 but they really aren’t concerned about 2026. They are thinking about 2028 and beyond which I still think is unfortunate because I think they could figure out a way to be competetive now without sacrificing the future. I also realize that no matter how many times I say that it isn’t going to make it more likely for them to choose that path. It is very obvious which path they are choosing.
gscottar said:
I think they could figure out a way to be competetive now without sacrificing the future.
I can’t speak for others, gscottar, but to me, that seems exactly what Mo had been saying for the last three years. To actually make it work would require subtlety and a lot of good fortune.
Maybe if it was a new and fresh idea, some folks would react differently, but more of the same thing, just trying to do it better, won’t resonate with many in a weary fan base.
They have been trying to “thread the needle” for years and it caught up with them. “Plan A” didn’t work, so perhaps it is time for “Plan B”.
P.S. I don’t think anyone is talking about sacrificing the future, though. Isn’t the matter being discussed the next few years? To me, it is potentially sacrificing the near term to try to enhance the future.
The possibility of receiving revenue sharing on top of a decreased payroll seems like the icing on the cake to ownership.
Also, welcome 63yearCardinalFan!
The cardinals choosing to be competitive now which means every season is why they are where they are. I dont really look at the cardinals as having an average team right now but thats just me. Trading donovan makes sense if you can get good future players for him. Right now you dont trade him umless you can get solid future players or picks for him. Hes not costing much now. I find it interesting how people still want to maintain a fairly mediocre team that just rely on hopes and what coulds bes vs building the organization back to what it was but i guess thats how it always is.
Trading Donovan all depends on what they can get for him. If they can trade Donovan for a #2 or a #3 pitcher that they can drop into the Cardinals’ starting rotation right away, they almost have to do it, IMO. And after that, they would still need a Lynn/Gibson type pitcher to tide them over.
“Trading Donovan makes sense if you can get good future players for him.”
Well, what are the chances of that? Chaim Bloom is the guy who was in Boston when they were slashing payroll, and he traded a generational talent in Mookie Betts and pretty much got garbage in return. One mediocre player in Verdugo, one sub-mediocre in Wong, and one bust in Jeter Downs.
“Trading Donovan all depends on what they can get for him. If they can trade Donovan for a #2 or a #3 pitcher that they can drop into the Cardinals’ starting rotation right away, they almost have to do it, IMO.”
Agreed, sure. But no team is trading #2 or #3 starter for Donovan. Because the team trading for Brendan will be a team trying to improve right now, and nobody like that has a surplus of very good starting MLB pitchers to trade from. Because, well, nobody anywhere has a surplus of very good starting MLB pitchers.
And speaking of potential trade partners, the Pirates are in the market for Donovan, per MLB Trade Rumors. The Pirates, for God’s sake. You see, even the loser cheapskate Pirates know that he’s really good and really cheap. (But not cheap enough for Redbird ownership, apparently.)
“They have been trying to ‘thread the needle’ for years and it caught up with them. ‘Plan A’ didn’t work, so perhaps it is time for ‘Plan B’.”
If Plan B means making yourself worse on purpose, then NO, it isn’t time for that. The time for that would’ve been about a dozen years ago. As I and others have mentioned, tanking won’t work like it did for the cubs and Astros, because due to CBA changes, the tanking team does not get the same budgetary advantages as before. It won’t work.
The owners want to slash payroll? They want to take their $398 million in revenue (2024 numbers), cry poor, and run a bottom ten payroll? Fine. I hate it, but fine. It’s a betrayal of fan trust, but fine. I outlined a plan earlier in this thread that accomplishes just that objective. So trade Arenado. Trade Contreras. But don’t trade Donovan, or Winn, or Herrera, or any other very good, inexpensive Cardinal. (Not that there are many more besides those three.)
In answer to the original question, there are two possibilities of what the Cardinals are doing right now:
1) Trading away anyone with any money whatsoever attached to them and shrinking payroll faster than they are shrinking revenue and ensuring a full share of MLB revenue sharing going forward
OR
2) They really are going to thread the needle and rebalance the roster and try to be more competitive at a lower payroll. The Cardinals have about six 2B/3B and no outfielders (both Donovan and Burleson are terrible in the outfield). They have three 1B/DH. They have five catchers. It is a terribly constructed roster, and we have been saying it for two years. Why is everyone against rebalancing the roster now?
As for Brian’s comment about threading the needle – you have to remember Mozeliak was in charge of the process. He’s the guy who scapegoated the catcher when he had probably the worst defensive outfield in major league history (2023 Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson). He is the guy who came up with the solution of investing $20 million in two #5 innings eaters for 2024. He is the guy who identified his top three priorities last offseason as trading Nolan Arenado, and failed to get it done.
Mozeliak built his career on doing nothing. Bloom is tasked with doing something.
I would like to see what Bloom does this offseason before I pass judgment.
As I and others have mentioned, tanking won’t work like it did for the cubs and Astros, because due to CBA changes, the tanking team does not get the same budgetary advantages as before. It won’t work
This isn’t at all about “tanking”. Yes those teams purposely were bad but in doing so would also trade for players that were on bad contracts and take on the money to get more prospects back in return. Like if the Cardinals were to trade Donovan to the Phillies and take on Castellanos in the return to boost the prospect package even higher. Houston did very little to she’d money during their tank. You keep saying tanking, as you’ve mentioned and it’s absolutely not a “tank”.
Donovan is 28 and only controlled for 2 more years. This team is not going to be a legitimate competitor in those 2 years. The minor league system is very sub par. Trading Donovan now is his highest value and a chance to bring in legitimate prospects to help that. Not a current “ace” or #2, but maybe a future. May not work out, but it’s their best chance. Same with Romero talk. He’s not bringing the same package but he’s a free agent after the year. Same with the Nootbaar talk. Only 2 more years of control, but his injury complicated it. I’d trade Pages too, his value is high and the 1 thing the system does have some promising talent is catcher. Trading Gray and probably Arenado and possibly Contreras is about getting as much money off the books as possible and opening a chance to look at guys to see who’s being built around and who’s getting replaced. The DeWitts are tired of paying big contracts and getting a middle of the road team. They don’t have the money to pay multiple big contracts and the front office people they have brought in have worked for organizations who were required to build off of limited budgets and building a cost effective roster. Donovan is good, affordable, and 2 years of control with defensive versatility making him wanted by all. I like him too, but he doesn’t fit into the 2028 and beyond plan when he gets expensive if they can keep him at all. They have too many LH bats and the most likely replacement is LH too.Donovan’s possible runway with the Cards ends at the 2027 trading deadline, so there is no reason not to listen to offers. He has missed significant time two of the last three years, so it might be smart not to tempt fate. They always wait too long to move guys. The idea of building a team around him is not realistic. Donovan is the kind of player you want when you have a couple MOTOs to build around, which we don’t, and won’t within Donovan’s Cardinals tenure.
Thanks for the responses, everyone who did so. I’ll try not to overly ramble with my rebuttals. 😉
“Houston did very little to shed money during their tank. You keep saying tanking, as you’ve mentioned and it’s absolutely not a ‘tank’.”
Let’s fact-check that first point. Astros Opening Day payroll, per Cot’s Contracts:
2009 $103 million
2010 $93 million
2011 $77 million
2012 $61 million
2013 $26 millionIn four years, Houston went from the #9 to #30 payroll. That’s payroll-shedding at its most extreme.
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As for the “tanking” matter: it doesn’t really matter what we call it, the brand new Cardinal ownership philosophy. If anyone doesn’t want to call it tanking, that’s okay. I’ll just call it “making the team meaningfully worse to save a relatively inconsequential amount of dough.”
Trading Sonny Gray likely makes the team meaningfully worse, but it saved a substantial amount of money, so that doesn’t fit my description. Trading Arenado would save a chunk of cash. (Plus, replacing Arenado on the roster with Wetherholt might very well improve the club!) Dealing Willson Contreras would probably make the team a little worse — Burleson seems to be getting better as a batsman but he’s basically a platoon guy, and not as deft afield as Contreras — but it would save a fair bit of money.
Donovan does not have a ready replacement. Not in talent or positional flexibility. Trading him would cost 2-3 games in the standings, by my estimation. Winning 2-3 fewer games qualifies as “meaningfully worse.” He’s a 3-4 WAR guy and his potential backfill guys would be Arenado, Gorman, Church, Walker, pretty much 1-WAR guys right now. (Actually, Church looks quite a bit better than that, but I don’t think Marmol will play him much anyway, so he’s more or less theoretical.)
And trading Brendan would save the $400MM revenue club a grand total of around 5 million bucks. Whoopee. For a franchise with $400MM in revenues, anything under 8-10 million qualifies as “inconsequential.”
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“This team is not going to be a legitimate competitor in those 2 years. The minor league system is very sub-par. Trading Donovan now is his highest value and a chance to bring in legitimate prospects to help that.”
The first sentence is hard to refute, without defining terms. To some fans, a legit competitor might mean a true-talent 90+ win team. In that case, I would say they cannot be that in 2026, but can in 2027, by retaining Donovan, trading Arenado, and removing both Gorman & Walker from the MLB roster either via trade or until they thrive in Triple-A, including a profound improvement in pitch selection, and making a few small, smart additions to their pitching staff.
You say “the minor league system is very sub-par.” This is as accurate as the Astros payroll observation. The Cardinal farm system is distinctly above average right now. Fangraphs has them #2 in the sport, which is too high by perhaps 5-7 slots. But it’s good-to-very good. Link: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings
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“Donovan is the kind of player you want when you have a couple MOTOs to build around, which we don’t, and won’t within Donovan’s Cardinal tenure.”
The Cards do already have one MOTO bat, and his name is Ivan Herrera. Think I’m lying? Check it out:
In 2025, Herrera ranked 20th in all of baseball with a 137 OPS+ (actually wRC+, but that’s for nerds and they’re effectively the same thing.) (Minimum 400 PA’s.)
Across 2024/2025, Herrera is 22nd in MLB at 134 (min. 600 PA’s). And from 2023-25, Ivan rates 19th at 133 (min. 750).
Here are some other names and their 2023-25 numbers. Kyle Schwarber 135, Jose Ramirez 132, Cal Raleigh 133, Alonso 128, Lindor 129, Devers 132, Mookie 136. Oh, and Willson Contreras, 129. Nice bunch of bats, huh? So just in terms of hitting prowess, not durability or RBI opportunities, from 2023-2025, Herrera + Contreras roughly equaled…well, pick any two of the above. Now, Ivan Herrera has not established himself like any of the above guys, of course; but at 25 he’s also a lot younger than them. And already really good at hitting.
Anyway, Donovan’s just a very good player. His value is the same, whether he’s the best or worst or 4th-best player on the roster. And he’s very cheap, and will be again next year. He’s a keeper.
Thanks for all the good discussion… my Cardinal memories date from ~1963. Living in Ohio since 1970… not a lot of Cardinal talk around here.
A couple thoughts in response to points above:
I understand this is the optimal time to trade Donovan if that’s your plan. What I don’t understand is the assumption that he won’t still be a “plus” player in 2028, when he is only 31ish.
I think everyone agrees it will take a multi-step process for the Cards to compete again at the highest level. If Donovan continues to compete at a high level, that’s one step complete and his versatility make other steps easier to take.
Keep taking steps… get to 2028 and pay him what the previous three seasons’ performance tell you he’s worth. Let him walk if he demands a contract longer than 4 or 5 years. I get it that the return might be less (or $0), depending on how the walk year goes down, but the value received in ’26 and ’27 will be the offset.
The comments on the current roster construction made be laugh… but they’re true. I shake my head wondering how we got to this point. But again, having a “plus” guy, versatile enough to fill a variety of spots, should make it easier to clear redundant players.
This next point is based on 20 years of coaching distance runners… after retiring from an executive management position… Winning breeds winning. Rebuilding a winning culture is easier if you do at least some winning along the way. Improvement is reward for doing the hard work well.
Watching and listening from 400 miles away, Donovan competes, he works hard… his good performance is the reward for doing things “the right way”. This is what I recall as “the Cardinal way”. If newcomers follow this example, we’re on our way to restoring a winning culture.
The last few years have been toxic to a winning culture. Trading guys because they’re good enough to be attractive to other teams is toxic. “inning eaters” over developing talent is toxic. Losing for the next two years only leads to more losing. I don’t want to get into management bashing, but a winning culture also requires a clear vision, consistently implemented. So that players must understand and trust the process… focus on improvement, knowing that winning, fun… more money will be the reward. Some teams buy wins, the Cards always developed wins… and can do it again. This rebuild has to more to do with restoring a winning mindset than improving the play in any one position.
I guess this would be a good time to define ‘competitive team’
Outside of simply fielding a squad, what does that term mean to each of you.
For me – being ‘competitive’ means being a plus or minus .500 team and it is the least any franchise should try for – even during a rebuild.
With the bloated playoff system, hanging around .500 generally keeps you in the mix for WC3 up to or even into the last week or two of the season – at least on paper.
This is the space the Cardinals have lived in for most (not all) of the last decade and the ‘get in and get hot’ model of team building has worn might thin with a big chunk of the fan base.
What i want the team to be is what it was in its glory years, and im not going to list them, its pretty east to find. Its not 2012 on up to me. I dont want a mentality that competing for the wild card is our goal. I dont want hoping to win, i want expecting to win. I want a stream of talent at every level. A well ran team at every level. I want winning players that want to be here every year and take pride in being a cardinal. Being a team that is expected to win a world series every year is not realistic here. But having a team that is just a couple moves here or there away from a really decent contender is regardless whether the moves truly work or are even able to be made. The words of wait til next season can actually have meaning in that kind of organizatuon. It takes some luck to win the final game of the season but i find that poorly ran organizations are very seldom in position to experience such luck. Hope that sums it up.
In four years, Houston went from the #9 to #30 payroll. That’s payroll-shedding at its most extreme.
Yes they were shedding payroll, but it wasn’t the main focus. They still took on an expiring bad contract or 2 in that time to improve prospect return. The main point I was making is this isn’t a “tank” for the purpose of getting top 5 draft picks the next 4 years as they did. It’s about shedding big contracts the ownership doesn’t want to pay and being cost effective and building a deep minor league system.
You say “the minor league system is very sub-par.” This is as accurate as the Astros payroll observation. The Cardinal farm system is distinctly above average right now. Fangraphs has them #2 in the sport, which is too high by perhaps 5-7 slots. But it’s good-to-very good. Link: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings
Ok, how about the system has no MLB ready prospects and is bloated on a lot of lower level guys. Weatherholt is MLB ready, LH hitting 2B that makes Donovan more of a redundancy. The pitching is thin with lots of injury and question marks. I wouldn’t say the syetem is good, average at best, with the potential of being good if a lot of these low level guys prove they are legitimate prospects, Baez isn’t a flash in the pan prospect. Gorman and Walker aren’t going back to AAA and they have no value right now. 2026 and 2027 are developing at the MLB level and who’s being built around and who moves on. Accept the fact St. Louis is a smaller market and the way of business isn’t going to be aging veterans or large contracts going forward they will do little in free agency. This administration will want a strong system with multiple guys able to shuffle back and forth to AAA, and trade guys approaching free agency when they have high value and have a system ready to replace the guy. Building from within and being cost effective.
The wild card is deflating baseball. The name of the game should be WINNING, not hoping maybe with a second or even third place we could sneak in the back door. Playoffs should be among winners, not also-rans.
Agree CIF. My first thought is always, can this roster win the NLCS. If we can’t picture ourselves in that series, then it feels like pretending to contend.
There’s a difference between second place in the division like the 2005 Astros team or even 2015 Cards/Cubs/Pirates race, and 2nd in the era of tiny market NL Central play. IMO, the Cards need to be building back toward being a consistent contender most years like the runs from 2000-2006, or 2011-2015. That’s arguably harder now with the Dodgers being a consistent juggernaut. But they are in need of more than just Donovan to get there. We need 3-4 guys better than him to even start to think about getting there. That’s why I’m ok if they trade him and the return is a bet on a star. That’s sort of what we did with Gray. If Clarke turns into a mid rotation or better star, then we win.
At least there will be activity this winter. You hate the roster losses but acquisitions do bring hope. Hope is not a sound strategy, so I hope it works!
I can’t speak for others, gscottar, but to me, that seems exactly what Mo had been saying for the last three years. To actually make it work would require subtlety and a lot of good fortune.
Maybe if it was a new and fresh idea, some folks would react differently, but more of the same thing, just trying to do it better, won’t resonate with many in a weary fan base.
They have been trying to “thread the needle” for years and it caught up with them. “Plan A” didn’t work, so perhaps it is time for “Plan B”.
P.S. I don’t think anyone is talking about sacrificing the future, though. Isn’t the matter being discussed the next few years? To me, it is potentially sacrificing the near term to try to enhance the future.
The possibility of receiving revenue sharing on top of a decreased payroll seems like the icing on the cake to ownership.
Also, welcome 63yearCardinalFan!
What Mo did the last few years was add a couple of over the hill vets and hope for the best. There were no strategic trades and certainly no investing in the farm.
What I am talking about is trading from surplus (2B, C, etc…) for good prospects either at AAA or pre-arb level, throw as much money as possible at the farm with instructors, infrastructure, etc…and keep enough current vets around to be able to win some games now.
That addresses both the present and the future and it does it through attrition without adding much to the payroll. That is not what Mo was doing. Mo was robbing Peter to pay Paul and spinning his wheels.
A trade may be nearing. Katie Woo says the Mariners and Giants are in the lead.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6887340/2025/12/13/mariners-giants-brendan-donovan-trade-partner/
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