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I know we have talked about this before. About how Goldschmidt and/or Arenado, depending on where the Cards stand in late July, could very well be moved at the trade deadline.
But……who are the players that we would like to get in return? Are there any big leaguers that we are considering? Or are we looking at nothing but prospects to go with our young nucleus? Any idea who we might be able to obtain?
And when I say young nucleus, I am referring to:
Winn
Gorman
Nootbaar
Walker
Donovan
Edman
Burleson
McGreevey
Hence
Graceffo
Liberatore
Herrera
Vic Scott
Carlsonr/Esteemed Rat
If we are trading at the deadline then we will probably only get prospects in return because the contending teams will not want to give up MLB players for the stretch run. If we are trading in the offseason then we could get MLB players back.
I don’t see any real value in them coming back if they don’t start consistently hitting a baseball. Then you figure in contracts for one of them.
Your real value should be on the pitching side should they fall out of it. Lynn, Gibson and Helsley would fetch something back prospect wise but it won’t really move a needle that much. It’s not like you’d get some immediate star power back for those guys. It would be players who are 2 years away from sniffing a MLB roster.
If we aren’t in it, I see the following categories. I imagine we will be close enough though given our easy schedule we will think we have a chance and will try to buy instead of sell. I actually see us having some decent chips to trade though to get decent prospects with Lynn and Gibson having over performed expectations and peripheral stats.
Likely to be Traded
– Kittredge
– Lynn
– Gibson
– GoldyMaybe Traded
– Gallegos (someone may take a shot for a low tier prospect if we eat the remaining salary given his prior excellence)
– Helsey
– Carlson (we seem to have given up on him and he has played poorly. Another org may see something to give up a low tier prospect)Low Chance of Being Traded
– Arenado
– Matz
– Mikolas
– Carp (no interest)
– Crawford (no interest)Core (Keep unless great offer)
– Winn
– Contreras
– Nootbaar
– Gorman
– Donovan
– Gray
– Romero
– Walker (we would be selling low and he still is so young with great potential)Everyone else is likely to stick around, but I wouldn’t consider them a part of the core I plan on building around. That doesn’t mean they aren’t productive players, but improvements on their role would be welcome.
Helsey would fetch a top 100 prospect that is close to the bigs from everything I have read. Closers as good as him with 1.5 years of control are quite valuable on the market.
Nice list, Albert. But with Goldy having no trade protection, I would not put him in the Likely category. For me, he is Maybe at best and more likely Low odds.
Ah yeah I forgot about Goldy having a no trade. I could see him waving it though to go to a team he likes, but that does make the odds of him being traded lower as less potential destinations for him.
I put Donovan in the core list, and I really like him as a player especially if he can get the walk rate back up. Looking at the roster construction though, he is a lesser version of Noot, but can play the IF. Donovan would actually have good value with team control left and being a quality starter. I wouldn’t be excited about trading him, but I would consider it if the deal made sense.
Gibson I’d have as low chance. I expect his option to be picked up. By winter I expect his option to look club friendly.
Helsley is a core piece thru his control. Saves by committe is not what this roster needs. Great offer? Sure, grudgingly.
Good to have a list to work from….
Some players, especially older ones who have all the money they need and have kids, are less inclined to become a hired hand. I don’t know if this applies here but it isn’t always as simple as a financial buyout.
Then again, maybe he wants a ring more than anything and realizes that grass is much greener elsewhere.
We may not learn the answer until August at best.
JJ, I think I would feel comfortable with handing the reigns over to Romero if we did trade Helsey for a cost controlled hitter. He isn’t as good, and now you need a setup man, but Fernandez, Leahy, and Robertson may have the stuff to be good late inning BP arms one day. I also think Roby is destined for the BP with his injury history and command problems, but his stuff out of the pen should be devastating for a late inning BP piece in the next couple of years.
I would like to see Helsley shopped for a controllable SP irregardless of our record. Helsley’s trade value is probably at the highest it will be due to a career year so far. Hard to believe this is his first season with 20 saves.
Also keep in mind we should hopefully be getting two major league hitters (Contraras and Edmon) back by the trade deadline.
J.P. Sears of Oakland would be an example of someone we should trade for.It’s hard to predict where we will be at the trade deadline. If we sell we can’t really go wrong with any high end prospects. Our 23rd rank farm system is in need of a talent infusion.
It’s not a bad succession plan Albert, in house post-Helsley, and a deadline trade leaves the full winter to solidify the pen.
I agree w/osuagec that his trade value is currently maxed. Since StL has gone season to season with his arb salary, it may double for 2025 at 7.6mil. Saves pay well thru arb, and although it’s not a huge payroll hit, trading him away does avoid it.
Grudgingly, and that was “great offer” for a core piece.
I have mentioned on another thread that trading is, on the whole, a zero sum game. It is moving talent around, on the ML roster or between ML and the minor league system. To accomplish anything, you have to have excess quality to trade from to improve somewhere else. The Cardinals do not have excess quality anywhere, so trading away a quality piece only opens a hole while trying to close another.
Speaking of arb players, Dylan added 18 points to his ops+ last night. He’s a tricky one for me if he gets hot. Odds are he doesn’t, but what if he does?
He still has less PA’s in 2024 than any of Contreras, Noot, Walker, Carpenter or Scott. If you add Fermin and Pages PA’s, Carlson just passed them.
“Maybe traded” seems right on Dylan, but our starting outfield is IL, or demoted. Maybe not may be in play too.
blingboy, “The Cardinals do not have excess quality anywhere”. When Edman returns, there’s an excess at 2B in the organization. Gorman, Edman, Donovan, Fermin, Saggese, and Prieto.
Correct. So actually, with those six and Arenado, there’s an excess at 3B, also, within the organization. Maybe something for Mo to work with as trading chips at the deadline or in the off season. Walker could be included in that 3B bunch, too. Though, they likely will keep him in the outfield.
All these players don’t sit the bench and wait for a start at 2B or 3B. They are committed elsewhere. Your reasoning lacks reality.
What? I’m just saying these are all good players that could play these infield positions. Arenado and Walker would likely be limited to 3B. There seems to be an abundance of talent at 2B and 3B. Realistically, they all can’t play regularly for the Cardinals at 2B and/or 3B. So some might be expendable as trade chips.
No there isn’t Shady. Quantity is not the same as quality. Edman is probably going to be needed in CF. Donovan will eiter be filling in for Walker or returning to his UT role. Gorman is playing out of position and is an OK second baseman. Saggese, Firmin and Prieto are all guys who weren’t good enough to make or stick on a 40 man roster somewhere else, and are throw in guys at this point.
blingboy, IMO, you are underestimating Saggese, Prieto and, maybe even, Fermin. They are very good young players. Burleson had plenty of doubters for a while. He’s turning out pretty darn good. Same could happen with Saggese, Prieto and Fermin.
We have some depth at 2B but that depth is Prieto and Fermin because the others are all needed. The problem is those 2 aren’t really worth much in a trade.
We also have a lot of likely future #5 starters or relievers in the minors. That is an area we could deal from but we risk losing the wrong ones before they all get to the prerequisite 4 years or so of development time. Any combination of Hjerpe, Bedell, Graceffo, Robberse, Granillo, and Nunez might fetch something decent, but we may regret the ones we let go over the long run.
There isn’t much other depth. Burleson I guess could be traded. Or Baker. Burleson would probably fetch a little more than what he would have coming into the season. But we’re still not talking about an impact player coming over.
We really have 2 choices that seem like the best odds. Either we tear half of the team down and sell the valuable parts at the deadline that we can get something decent for and do a half rebuild or we wait it out and continue to grow our young position players and our minor league pitchers. The 2nd option seems like where the team wants to head. But setbacks are making for a lot of 2nd guessing.
I’m in the patience camp. Wait it out no matter how unpopular that is. But I do think trading Helsley is the best play even if we’re still in it at the deadline. Ryan is probably peak value. I love having him. He makes the end of games mostly smooth. But he’s never going to be worth more than he is now.
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