- This topic has 158 replies, 25 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Less than 8 days to go. What would we think of as a favorable outcome? Arms, I know. But how many and at what level? Here’s my not deeply considered view. I’d love corrections.
Get:
1) Someone who could right now step in as a number 3 starter and for whom we’d have multiple years of control
2) A promising AAA starter. Someone who could step in as 5th starter in spring with upside to eventually be a 3.
3) A promising AAA relief arm. They need to bulk up the pen for next year, even with Romero and Hudson coming on strong of lateGive up to the following, though I’d think we could get more than the above for this list:
Montgomery
Flaherty (though I’d rather they keep him and get him to sign for one more year if possible)
Hicks
StrattonCarlson
O’Neill
DeJong [Though I’d like to keep one of those three for depth for next year]Knizner
Up to two of the three of
Burleson
Baker
YepezHave at it, folks!
I think the idea here at the deadline, as a seller, is to offer what the contenders want and might over pay for. General house cleaning can happen over the winter.
Pitcher rentals would be of interest to contenders. So they would be trading not ready for prime time guys that will not be helping them win now. Contenders are trading for help they can count on now, like Montgomery, not a perpetual reclamation project guy like Flaherty, and not a roll the dice every time you call his name guy like Hicks. Stratton is a minimal value rental.
I don’t really see contenders being excited about streaky, slump prone guys and unproven noobs. Thats more like stuff they already have are are wanting to upgrade for the stretch run, not get more of.
So basically, there’s Montgomery among the guys on your list who might be overpaid for by a contender.
Win now guys who contenders would be interested in and might over pay for at the deadine woud be Montgomery, Mikolos, Goldschmidt, Arenado, Nootbaar, Walker, Gorman and probably Gallagos. Donovan and Edman would be included but have injuries complicating the situation. We could move other guys, but nobody is going to overpay at the deadline for them, so no special reason to trade them now rather than this winter.
Give up the following, though I’d think we could get more than the above for this list.
I think I would give up those 11 for the 3 you describe, Gags. Well, let’s call it 10 because Knizner is not going anywhere. The most valuable 3 (Montgomery, Flaherty and Hicks) are gone at season’s end anyway. Yes, I would pull the trigger on your 10 for 3 proposed trade.
I believe contenders would be excited to get Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks as rentals, same as Monty.
I’m with Brian on this one. And I reflect on our getting Montgomery last year for Bader, even with Bader on the DL. That makes me think a package of Montgomery and one of O’Neill/Carlson/DeJong to a team needing an OF or SS in return for a starting pitcher with longer control than Montgomery would make some sense. The other team keeps their rotation strong for the stretch with Montgomery and strengthens a weak position. Flaherty and Hicks would provide rotation or bullpen depth and I think I’d trade a solid (not spectacular) AAA prospect for that were I a team in need. Maybe packaging Flaherty with one of the position players gets something like the Montgomery/position player deal.
The other five (Stratton, Knizner, Yepez, Baker, Burleson) I’d see as sweeteners, not centerpieces.
Good synopsis, Gags. I’d add another innings eater starter to your get list. And maybe another mid reliever arm.
Mo would want to get all that stuff, and probably could, but not if he’s only dealing the players on Gag’s list. Making a difference would require pulling down the Not For Sale sign.
Cranny,
Getting that additional set without adding anything to the pot? That would be great. My sense is that that second starter might be asking too much. Lots of demand for innings eaters and I worry it will be tough to get one much less two. Another mid-reliever maybe, though.
Although there’s always been a use for a SP’er who could consistently be relied upon to take the baseball every 4th or 5th day, I never thought a guy like Jake Westbrook would hold such a high place in the pecking order of the pitching caste. He almost has to be lamenting the fact that he didn’t emerge a bit later.
I posted this on the Trade Ideas thread but will re-post here. I agree with Morosi on rental pitchers having high value. Due to the expanded playoffs there are a lot more buyers than sellers. Since the supply is limited prices are going to go up. I think we can get a nice return for Montgomery, Flaherty, and even Hicks.
Carlson and O’Neill should bring back a nice return too even though they aren’t pitchers. They do have control remaining after this season.
On @MLB trade market, prices for rental starting pitchers are high — and they should be, because numerous contenders want to add one.@MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2023
Derrick Goold even mentioned in an article yesterday that one AL team had expressed interest in Matz. I did not see that one coming. I wonder how much we would have to pay down?
“With a week remaining before Major League Baseball’s Aug. 1 trade deadline, members of John Mozeliak’s front office converged on Phoenix as they weigh moves to pull from the 2023 roster for the benefit of 2024 and beyond. Two of the handful of players drawing interest from teams are starters Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery, and at least one American League team has discussed pursuing Steven Matz as rotation insurance or a bullpen upgrade.”
I would give the general answer and say that a successful deadline would be one in which we can shed dead weight for useful pieces (or salary relief) going forward that helps or at least doesn’t impact the ability of the team going into 2024 and beyond. In practical terms, I think that means moving on from expiring contracts, easing the roster log jam and finding at least one immediate help, one or two guys who help us next year at some point and a few flyers.
Derrick Goold even mentioned in an article yesterday that one AL team had expressed interest in Matz. I did not see that one coming. I wonder how much we would have to pay down?
Matz has been pitching decently of late (2.89 ERA in June/July). It’s possible a team could find that appealing, and his future salary isn’t that prohibitive for a team that is willing to spend a few bucks. I’d imagine we would have to pay something down to get anything of value but for an A ball flier we may not have to give too much salary relief.
Getting out of the Contreras situation without too much damage seems like a pipe dream, but where there is smoke there might be fire. We can hope.
This will be interesting for sure. Seattle has some nice pitching potential under control, but have been around .500 all year and may not be in a buying mode.
But as everyone states, we will likely move on from Montgomery, Flaherty, and Hicks as they will bring in a nice haul of upwardly mobile pitching, and probably a decent prospect or two. Matz is trending upward, so a team may just buy on him, especially being a lefty.
I doubt O’Neill or Carlson generate a lot of excitement with teams, but you never know. Carlson has evolved as a defense-first outfielder, and teams will likely want offense-first guys. Ty is injured so much you don’t know if you will be buying on someone who won’t be available much.
I would not move any of these guys in a deal – everyone else is fair game: Donovan, Nootbaar, Walker, Gorman. That’s it. We won’t be dealing Goldy or Nolan I, but for a haul I would sell on them. Ain’t gonna happen though. I would throw Winn in the no-trade group as well, but am just including guys on the big league club.
I know this is the time of year when sports writers dream up scenarios that are unlikely to happen but this would be interesting. I don’t expect it though.
Writing for ESPN.com, Alden Gonzalez made his pitch for such a trade:
“The Los Angeles Dodgers might be in first place in the National League West, but they’re also one of the most needy teams heading into the trade deadline. They need starting and relief pitching, and they’d also like to add a right-handed bat to their lineup, with position not being much of a factor. One name to watch here is Nolan Arenado, the Cardinals third baseman who is owed a very reasonable $94 million over the next three years. The Dodgers have long been enamored of Arenado, 32, and they see third base as a need they’ll have to address in the offseason given their present construction. The Cardinals aren’t expected to trade Arenado at the moment, but the Dodgers have the type of young talent — particularly pitching — to sway teams in a situation like this. Arenado has a full no-trade clause, but he grew up in Southern California and the expectation is that he would waive it for a team like the Dodgers.”
Never say never and I see why it would be good for the Dodgers. But I don’t give it more than 1% odds of actually happening.
On the other hand, the Cards may have other assets that also interest the Dodgers that could actually be made available. Even putting Arenado aside, the two teams may match up well.
P.S. I cannot wait for the follow on headlines. “Dodgers in Pursuit of former Rockies Star”, etc…
We could get prime controllable pitching from LA for Arenado, and Walker could move to his natural position, with Gorman plan B. Free up mega cash for FA pitching this winter.
Depending on the young pitchers LA would send us, I am open to dealing Arenado. And no doubt Arenado would be thrilled to play for his hometown team.
But I would put Gorman at third, with Edman or Donovan taking second.
But I do not know much about Walker as a third baseman. Was his defense good there?
With Arenado’s salary and age and apparent defensive decline, he’s not going to land any kind of a haul. Not to mention the poor public relations it would create (not unlike trading Goldy). Recall how little the Cards gave up to get Nolan in the first place — when he was three years younger. He’s unquestionably worth less now, even at the Deadline.
I say trade Gorman for Dylan Cease, Monty + DeJong + Hicks + mid-level prospect for Grayson Rodriguez, and Flaherty + Carlson for a great AAA relief prospect or very good AAA starter. But none of it will matter unless and until they jettison Ollie Marmol. He’s bad at many managerial things and above average at none.
Anyway, that’s makes next year’s Opening Day rotation Mikolas, Cease, Matz, Grayson Rodriguez, and either Liberatore or Hudson or Woodford or McGreevy or Graceffo. With a real manager and better pitching coach, it’s not a bad-looking talent collection.
———————————————-
Also, according to Baseball Trade Values, lefty starter Kyle Freeland’s contract with Colorado is pretty far underwater. In fact, it’s exactly as bad as Willson Contreras, at $25MM in the hole. So maybe just maybe the Cards could include a significant sweetener (Pallante? Won-Bin Cho?) and dump Willson on the Rockies while receiving a pitcher with the potential to turn it around.
Lastly, it’s good to see you, Gags. A much-belated Welcome Back.
Wow, and here I thought Arenado is the cornerstone of the team. After all, he only leads the Cards in home runs, RBI, batting average, slugging and OPS. He is second in bWAR to Goldy, 2.9 to 2.7.
They are not trading him, just like he did not opt out last off-season, despite the pages of posts made about that. “He wants out. He wants to play at home in LA, etc.” None of it was true.
Even though the Cards said they aren’t trading him because they are not doing a total rebuild, a random wish article by someone in LA has folks all fired up again. This subject is so tired, IMO. The Cards want to contend next year. Goldy and Arenado will be the core of that, just as they are now.
Agree 100% on the welcome return of Gags. Seems like you never left!
BikeMike, Walker’s defense was not very good at third base so you might be right to put Gorman there and keep Walker in the Outfield. But I sincerely doubt that we trade Arenado. Like maybe 5% odds. Which is higher than the 1% chance I’d put on the Cards trading Goldschmidt. Contreras probably isn’t going anywhere either because of being a lot underwater and having a no trade clause.
I would have no problem if the Cardinals trade Arenado. Gorman could slide into 3B and it would free up a ton of cash but it is unlikely to happen.
More realistic targets for the Dodgers would be O’Neill or Carlson, Monty or Flaherty, along with Hicks and DeJong. I think by sending some combo of those players we would get some quality AAA pitching prospects in return and possibly someone like James Outman. We might need another OF if we trade both Carlson and O’Neill.
gscottar said:
“…and it would free up a ton of cash…”
We haven’t talked about this enough. One reason the 2023 team is so bad is that the Cards are NOT spending to keep pace with MLB. They have fallen to 16th in payroll and there is no guarantee they will increase spending ahead. They want young cost-controllable pitching, not expensive aces.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.