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I realize a lot of internet media rely on clicks to generate ad revenue and these types of articles seem to be reliable drivers of traffic, but I feel the exercise itself is too large an undertaking for one person to do both well and without compromising quality in some way. Not to mention there could be tremendous variability in knowledge and experience between writers who compile these rankings and the reader may not know whether the writer’s work is reliable or not.
To be fair, most of the more prominent analysts seem to form a rough consensus about known prospects. But even then, there are certain organizations that tend to outperform consensus projections on their prospects pretty routinely, the Cardinals being one of them. So while the consensus says that the Cardinals system is middle of the pack, I expect we will actually realize better mlb production from our system than the organizations we are grouped with due to our track record of doing just that. At the end of the day, these articles are more about entertainment before the season starts.
The injury histories of CMart, Waino, Wacha, and Reyes the Cards are counting on a lot of unproven guys to get massive amounts of innings this season.
I don’t know if that is necessarily true, though. I bet if you gave Mozeliak truth serum, he would say the only one of those four he is expecting to be a major part of the team’s success this year is Martinez. Waino was given an incentive based contract, Wacha never seems to get through a year healthy, and Reyes’ season will be more about preparing him to be a key member of the rotation in 2020. I think Mozeliak is probably pretty comfortable he has the depth to weather most storms injury wise.
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch is posting pictures of players at spring training who are working on fundamentals, doing drills, practicing. I’m sure glad to see that. No more laid back, lackadaisical workouts. Shildt and his staff are back to taking spring training seriously. The defense will surely be better this year.
I agree and am glad to see that Shildt really prioritizes defense and fundamentals. One of the things that used to drive me nuts about Matheny was the erosion of defensive fundamentals and that he frequently erred on the side of more offense at the expense of defense, like trying to play Jose Martinez at first and benching guys like Wong and Bader if they had a bad week at the plate.
The Memphis bullpen will be overcrowded by a lot. I counted 9 on that roster now plus the STL over flow (3 +/-) and those that can move up from SPFD (5 +/-). That is (17 +/-).
I’ve been wondering how Memphis is going to set their roster, as they are actually overcrowded at a few position groups. Brian did a great job detailing the number of guys competing for rotation and bullpen spots. But they also have a glut of outfield and utility infield prospects. In the outfield, they’ll need to find playing time for Arozarena, Garcia, Williams, and Thomas, plus any in season promotions from Springfield. For utility infielders, they have Schrock, Sosa, Edman, Urias, and whichever of Robinson or Munoz doesn’t make the big league club. I don’t see how they can find adequate playing time for all these guys, not to mention potentially having to find space for Tyler O’Neil.
What I bet will happen is we see some trades similar to the Oscar Mercado deal, where we swap an older prospect from a crowded position group for a much younger player that you don’t have to put on the 40 man roster. The Mercado trade worked out really well, netting them Jhon Torres (who has real upside) and Connor Capel, both of whom made the TCN top 50. If they could trade from their depth and potentially get a rookie league level middle infield prospect with upside, it would help fill a weakness in the system.
The conversation between Bob and Brian reminds me of a point made by Jen Langosch and Kevin Wheeler on the latter’s radio show. For all the talk about how front offices have gotten smarter at evaluating players, rarely is the 25 men on the roster at the end of spring training the best 25 players the organization could put out there. Teams are really reluctant to move on from bad contracts as quickly as they could or perhaps should and typically wait too long to admit their mistake and play the player who is better but makes less money. Teams almost invariably choose the option that keeps costing them wins rather than admit to their bosses they made a huge mistake. I think teams who operate like Boston have a huge competitive advantage because they’re willing to eat bad contracts rather than continue to play guys that are hurting the team because they make huge amounts of money. The Cardinals could operate more like Boston in this regard given how financially strong the organization is, they just choose not to.
IMO, there is too much emphasis being placed on specific coaches and coaching, with next to nothing being said about a synergy that develops with new people working together under new leadership. When there is a different manager, and a new coach, and new players, there will be a different vibe throughout the organization. That different vibe will have an effect on everything, including personal stats such as strikeouts and striking out.
This is really true and is something that Shildt really seemed to do well last year. Frankly, though I can only speak as an outsider, but the clubhouse under Matheny seemed to have turned toxic for some players, whether that be Fowler or younger guys like Wong and Bader who didn’t feel like they had the confidence of their manager. I’ve also read stories about Matheny playing favorites and that causing some division.
Thankfully, the clubhouse atmosphere seemed to stabilize under Shildt. Players felt heard and empowered. There was even talk about the assistant coaches being happier and feeling more involved. Shildt seems to have a real knack for communication and fostering a healthy and happy clubhouse. I look forward to seeing what he can do running his first spring training.
I think we’re a much better team on paper than last year and I expect significant improvement from our bullpen. That said, the division also looks like it will be more competitive this year. Last year everyone on the Brewers seemed to have career years and they may be due for some regression, though the Grandal pickup should be big for them. The Cubs were pretty unlucky last year and I expect them to improve even though they didn’t add anyone interesting.
What will be interesting to see is how many wins the Reds are able to steal from the top three teams in the division. Unlikely that it will be enough to make the Reds contenders but it could still have a big influence on the final standings.
On a side note, I am really excited about our new hitting coach. I’ve read a few articles on him and he seems like just what we need, especially guys like O’Neil and Bader.
Why is that, CC? I could see the following guys being potential top 100 prospects in a year if things fall right (in decreasing order of likelihood):
Gorman (nearly a lock)
Montero (should be)
Knizner
Carlson
Cabrera
Torres
Arozarena
Nunez
Helsley (probably graduates)Not to say that they all will be, but even if 4 of them make it, that’s more than we had on almost any list this year.
I agree and would suggest adding Ivan Herrera to your list of guys poised to break out onto top 100 lists. What stands out to me about the Cardinals system is that we have a decent mix of two useful types of prospects: the guys who should have lower ceilings but higher floors that are useful depth pieces to a major league roster, and guys who have a high ceiling but are inherently more risky as they are more projection than track record at this point. I think we have enough of these high upside candidates in the low minors that our system could be ranked much higher in the next few years should a couple of them realize their potential.
What worries me about our system is the lack of high end pitching prospects in the low minors. I understand the reason for it, as in recent history we’ve generally acquired those pitchers high in the draft but the last few years have shifted to drafting position players in the first round. I wouldn’t be surprised if we went back to drafting pitchers in the first round for the next couple drafts due to that need in the system.
Hey everyone, I’m actually planning on catching a few games at Peoria this season with my dad. It will be my first time seeing a minor league game and I was wondering if anyone here had any tips for us that could make our experience more enjoyable?
Brian, you are right, that is a pretty good article that does a great job illustrating all Alex Reyes has been through these last couple years. It’s kind of amazing he’s managed to remain so diligent with his rehab when his daughter got cancer during that period.
Hello everyone, my name is Dave. I’ve been lurking at TCN for several months ever since I first heard Brian Walton on Scoops with Danny Mac. I finally decided to buckle down and get a subscription after loving the free content and wanting to see the paid content. Now I’m hooked.
I have a question I’ve been wondering about that dovetails nicely with this thread that I’m hoping some of you might be able to answer. What traits, characteristics, and skills do you think the Cardinals prioritize in players when it comes to the draft and international free agents? A few years ago it seemed like every scouting report I read on our drafted hitting prospects (it was the year we drafted Plummer and Denton) mentioned bat speed as a strength and in the years since I feel like I often see advanced strike zone judgement or advanced approach mentioned in scouting reports. To me, those attributes have popped up often enough as we’ve replenished our system with position players that that might be something the Cardinals prioritize, or maybe they find it harder to teach and would rather players they sign and draft high have that as a foundation. On the pitching side, I haven’t really noticed a similar theme.
Secondly, I’m wondering if a possible reason the Cardinals don’t do as well in system and prospect evaluations with most scouting services as those players subsequent major league results indicate they should have (I’m speaking of the phenomenon in which Cardinals prospects seem to often outperform their projections by these sites at the major league level, the so called devil magic) is that the Cardinals might prioritize certain trait or skills in players they draft and sign that the scouting services don’t place as much importance on in comparison to other skills.
My opinion is that if the Cardinals prospects routinely outperform their projections, then these national scouting service evaluations aren’t worth much.
