Why play Fowler

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This topic contains 79 replies, has 21 voices, and was last updated by Brian Walton Brian Walton 3 weeks, 5 days ago.

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  • #102440
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    14NyquisT
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    Fowler has been productive this year.

    Well, he is hitting above .150, but he is still not the great lead-off, gold glove center fielder that the FO built him up to be. He is basically sub-marginal… that’s what we got here.

    FO office paid for filet mignon and got luncheon meat.

    I’m done here … if you are waiting for Fowler to revert back to ’16 (the player we contracted for), give me a call when it happens.

    #102441
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    forsch31
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    I thought Cecil should have been gone at the beginning of this year. Pitchers can lose it a lot quicker than a position player.

    I don’t care what Carpenter’s contract is. If he continues to have his poor swing, I don’t see how he will help us much this year. I do think he could work on his swing over the winter and be productive for us next year, though. He has also proven that he can be productive, just like Fowler did.

    #102442
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    forsch31
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    In case you guys missed it, Fowler was just as good in 2017 for the Cardinals as he was in 2016 for the Cubs. He has been in short spurts this year, also.

    #102446
    bicyclemike
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    I am not too sure Dex’ leaving Chicago has not hurt the Cubs more than it has helped us. They just have not quite been the same with him leading off. They have struggled to find a decent lead off hitter since he left.

    He could fill that role with us. He gets on base at a pretty good clip. My sense about Dexter is that you need to encourage him and make it known how important he is to your club. It is not only about that of course, but I think he needs that maybe more than some guys.

    #102447
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    forsch31
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    If you think Fowler is sub-marginal, then you must not want Wong or DeJong or O’Neill or Martinez. Or Puig or AJ Pollock or Aaron Hicks or Joey Votto or Miguel Cabrera or Jose Ramirez. I could go on. All those batters have a wRC+ that is equal to or lower than Fowler’s except DeJong who has a 102. Fowler’s is 101.

    #102448
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    atripleshyofthecycle
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    In case you guys missed it, Fowler was just as good in 2017 for the Cardinals as he was in 2016 for the Cubs. He has been in short spurts this year, also.

    I have a hard time equating a 4.6 WAR with a 2.5 WAR. Fowler got paid based on his outlier season of 2016, and in 2017, we got the 4th best season of his career, which will also be the best we get out of him. His career prior to 2016 earned him a one year contract for $13 million (really a 2 year $17 million deal with a player option). And that was, predictably, the better half of his career (he turned 31 before the 2017 season). And yet we threw $82.5 million over 5 years at him.

    Playing him now is certainly the defensible, safe play. He’s been playing well the last couple of weeks. But I’d rather see Thomas out there in his place. And no matter how bad Bader was hitting, he was providing more overall value than Dexter.

    We are stuck with that garbage contract, and we might as well try to extract as much value as possible out of him.

    #102451
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    forsch31
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    The fact that Fowler had a positive defensive WAR in 2016 and a large negative defensive WAR in 2017 tells me a lot about defensive measurements. They are pretty worthless, just like I have always said. His offensive numbers were good for the Cardinals in 2017, just like 2016 for the Cubs.

    As far as playing him just to extract value, I disagree. We should not base it on trying to get a return on our investment. It should be totally based on putting the best team on the field to win games. There is no guarantee the kids will do better. Although, I do believe they should be playing more to see what we have in them.

    #102462
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    atripleshyofthecycle
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    The fact that Fowler had a positive defensive WAR in 2016 and a large negative defensive WAR in 2017 tells me a lot about defensive measurements. They are pretty worthless, just like I have always said.

    They are especially worthless when they don’t fit the narrative you are spinning. Guys can have big swings in defense. That doesn’t make the stats worthless. They still prove out over time.

    But, judging by other arguments you’ve made in this thread, you don’t want to toss out defensive metrics, you want to toss out defense entirely, and only judge players on hitting metrics. That’s your prerogative, but do understand that you are only looking at half the game.

    #102468
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    BrockLou
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    The problem isn’t Fowler, it’s Goldy.He’s striking out over five times for every two walks, often times with runners in scoring position, on 3rd with less than 2 outs, or the bases loaded(last night).
    Perhaps one of these young guys will catch fire, but it is unlikely.

    #102476
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    Cardinal in France
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    Is anyone else tired of the same Fowler points we’ve been making for the last two years?

    Yeah, me. I’m no great Fowler fan either, but I think we’ve just about talked it to death.

    #102479
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    gscottar
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    Why did the Cardinals stick with Bader so long, then?

    I imagine it was because they knew he was the best defensive CF in the league. Unfortunately for Bader the rest of the lineup couldn’t compensate for his weak bat so the sand finally ran out of the hourglass.

    • This reply was modified 4 weeks, 1 day ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #102481
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    SoonerinNC
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    If I recall accurately Fowler was losing playing time when he went on the DL, now the IL. I think Shildt had to give him an opportunity to get the job done, particularly considering the rumored conflict between he and Matheny.

    Fowler’s defensive WAR was .3 in 2016 and he was below 0.0 6 of 9 years. I did a look at defenders when it was evident we were shopping for a center fielder. Both he and Ozuna who was playing center field at that time looked like poor solutions to me.

    He seems to be weak on getting a good jump on balls in front of him.

    #102828
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    Cardinals27
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    It seems our focus is on Carps struggles, but he and Fowler are neck and neck for strikeout %. I wish they would go with the young outfielders and sit Fowler, but that is all it is. A wish.

    #102829
    Brian Walton
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    If strikeout percentage was the best way to select starters, Tyler O’Neill would be rehabbing in Siberia. Then again, has anyone seen him lately? 😉

    Top Cardinals in wRC+, 2019:
    Ozuna 116
    Goldschmidt 110
    Fowler 103
    Wong 102
    DeJong 101

    #102833
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    Cardinals27
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    Is wRC really the most accurate way to compare players? By traditional stats, I think it should be:

    The top 2 are pretty clear with Ozuna and Goldschmidt, 3)Dejong 21 hrs/56rbis, 4)Wong, 9 hrs/44 rbis, 5)Fowler, 14 hrs/44 rbis

    #102835
    Brian Walton
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    No measure is perfect, but I would always use wRC+ over K rate or HR/RBI in comparisons. For example, using HR/RBI to value players would have made Lou Brock a benchwarmer. Different players have different roles and skills.

    #102842
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    gscottar
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    I don’t care what Carpenter’s contract is. If he continues to have his poor swing, I don’t see how he will help us much this year.

    Forsch, I guarantee you the FO cares about his contract.

    #102843
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    If you prefer WAR, which includes defense, here are the bWAR totals for the top five Cardinals hitters:

    Wong 3.5
    DeJong 3.3
    Goldschmidt 3.2
    Ozuna 1.9
    Fowler 1.5

    The point remains: Fowler is not one of the lesser contributors on the 2019 team.

    #102845
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    Cardinals27
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    Comparing Wong to Fowler on AVG/OBP/SLG, Fowler is only ahead slightly on SLG. Combine that with a much higher K rate, Wong is clearly better at this point this year. And if defense is included Wong’s and Dejong’s value are greater, and Fowler’s less. But enough about Fowler, as I see no need to beat a dead horse AGAIN.

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 6 days ago by Avatar Cardinals27.
    #102846
    Brian Walton
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    OF course, the front office SHOULD care about Carpenter’s contract. However, unless you are suggesting Shildt is being told who to play, that is a separate matter from today’s lineup.

    #102848
    Brian Walton
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    I agree that Wong is playing better than Fowler this year, but that isn’t the point since Fowler does not play second base. Same with DeJong and shortstop. Those lineup decisions are unrelated to Fowler.

    You suggested sitting Fowler and I countered with data that shows he has played better than others at his position. That is all…

    #102864
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    gscottar
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    OF course, the front office SHOULD care about Carpenter’s contract. However, unless you are suggesting Shildt is being told who to play, that is a separate matter from today’s lineup.

    Yes, I am suggesting Shildt is being encouraged to play Carp due to his contract.

    #102869
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    Bw52
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    Why the zingers at ONeill? He hasnt missed 70 games in a season like Fowler.When ONeill got a chance he produced better than the Albatross Fowler.I fail to see any reason to be even remotely satisfied with anything Fowler has done this season.Big deal...he is overpaid,underperforming ,plays lousy defense,cant steal bases etc;.But if his production dazzles some folks…then that`s their problem.

    #102871
    EuroWolf
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    I haven’t seen Bw52 post in a while, but I remember the formatting of his posts always seemed to have a mind of their own, just like this time. I noticed in this one that everywhere he probably typed an apostrophe (“O’Neill” twice, “hasn’t” and “can’t”), the format goes funky and toggles to a different mode. When he used the grave accent () instead of an apostrophe in "thats” it did not toggle a format change.

    Sorry, the systems analyst in me just came out, but I thought somebody tried to figure this one out before. Maybe not.

    #102872
    BlackHillsCard
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    With Shildt saying yesterday Tommy Edman is an everyday player, I think the Carp situation is what is causing Arozarena and Thomas to be benched for an infielder in the outfield.

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