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Why do you think that?
I have not been able to find the article or post I read at the time the Cardinals announced the reset, but it was basically that the Cardinals used major league funds to deprive BOTH player development and analytics. I literally broke into laughter when I read it.
This is the closest I found to what I read, but this is not it. I read specifically that player development and analytics were gutted. And it was very succinct.
But given they have 16 people in the analytics department, I stand by my contention they are comically bad at their jobs.
2023 was the disaster year it was for many reasons, but two of the biggest culprits were:
1) They insisted on benching their left-handed hitters whenever a LHP was on the mound, even though Donovan, Nootbaar and Gorman historically did not have pronounced splits up to that point (Gorman did have splits in 2024, but for his career is dead neutral), and switch-hitters like Edman and Carlson both had very pronounced splits. It was August or September before they finally caught on to the fact they were better with their left-handed hitters starting against LHPs.
2) They tried running an outfield that included Walker & Burleson at the same time, which is probably among the all-time worst defensive outfields in the history of the game. They blamed the catcher for the inability of the outfielders to catch the ball and prevent runs from scoring.If you have 16 people analyzing data, and they can’t do the most fundamental aspects of their jobs, they need new jobs.
I would be in favor of signing our old #1 prospect Dylan Carlson to a minor league deal. He has to figure it out again at some point?
With all of the savings on these trades/not signings, hire a top notch hitting coach to work with him, Walker and Gorman in ST.
I don’t think there is any reason to blame the analysts. They probably know how to crunch numbers. They are not the ones whose job it is to make use of their output to inform decisions that affect humans. For instance, they can calculate all the statistical advantages, but it is not them who decides what affect jerking human players around everyday chasing those statistical advantages will have on actual day to day results. It is not their job to perceive what intangibles are in play and how and what to do to manage people in that environment. It is not their job to factor in what cannot be quantified. Their is more to the game than the measurables. My fear is that updating the organization chart with the currently popular layers and titles and upping the headcount will not necessarily fix anything.
Funny. There are those inside and outside the organization who think the influence of analytics has been too great, not too little. As suggested by bling, the culprits may be those who apply the data rather than the creators. The two examples cited (LHH usage and outfield alignment) are ultimately managerial decisions, driven by any number of influencers.
GM Michael Girsch was formerly directing the analytics initiative, but was removed from his job. That may not be a coincidence.
Sort of like the payroll discussion, it isn’t always about the size of the investment, but one also has to consider how the money is being used. We don’t have a lot of visibility into that detail.
P.S. I reread The Athletic article. Its focus is on lack of investment in player development. Analytics was only mentioned in passing, that the current models are outdated and they lack innovation. It does not say analytics were “gutted” as you assert.
Data is just data. It’s what you do with it that affects the end result of a game like baseball.
Baseball is and always has been a statistically driven game. R/L splits for batting average, on base percentage, slugging average, ERA, and WHIP are for me the most useful stats. The home ballpark effect is a real thing.
You can dive deeper but you have the be careful about drawing conclusions based on very limited data points. Case in point would be specific batter-pitcher matchups. I mean, how many times does a batter face a pitcher in any given season? Only a handful really so what conclusion can you really draw from Bob Uecker’s lifetime batting average vs. Sandy Koufax? He hit Sandy really well but are you actually going to make an in game managerial decision based on that stat?
Certain stats are very useful but many are just merely interesting talking points for the announcers. I think that a manager has to know his guys on the human level and gauge certain moves (both hitting and pitching) based on a myriad of things from yes – certain statistics – but also things as esoteric as; ‘How is my guy feeling today’?
I really believe managing a baseball team is equal parts statistics and ‘feel’.
They aren’t trying whatsoever, therefore Helsley (injury and regression concerns) and Fedde (regression) should basically be put out for the highest bidder.
Packaging them together to a team like the Orioles(just an example) of a team looking for SP and closer help could provide a great return. $15m or so for a top closer and Mid rotation SP would make so much sense for a team like that.BAL acquired Burns and Kimbrel last offseason. Both are gone this offseason. Perfect fit CFICT, and BAL is loaded with youth.
My bias would say go after Kjerstad from the Orioles although I admit we probably don’t need another LH OF. The kid can really hit though.
My fear is that updating the organization chart with the currently popular layers and titles and upping the headcount will not necessarily fix anything.
Bling, my guess is that Bloom is much “wonkier” than Mo. The wonk to chomper ratio will probably be 10 to 1. Just forewarning you.
My guess is that he’s the “wonkier” half of Zero Mostel/Gene Wilder…What role does Max Bialystock play in this story?
Thanks gscottar, but I forewarn myself every day. If Bill could fall for magic beans he could fall for snake oil.
You are very fond of that saying, but how do you know that BDW didn’t select the magic beans himself? You consistently underestimate his level of understanding and involvement.
Well, to be fair, based on most of the past decade it’s actually a better look for BDW if he doesn’t understand.
Brian I believe the results speaks for itself. Bill has been in charge. Allegedly, even though he knows perfectly well his business model relies upon a stream of homegrown talent, he allegedly let Mo pull the plug on PD at some point in the past and then stood by as the pipeline disappeared and the ML roster crumbled. You can think he was on board if you want, but that would mean he is just stupid, which I do not believe. He was either hoodwinked or he is stupid, one or the other, and I do not buy stupid.
Just maybe it isn’t as complicated as you make it seem. I think they were both just plain wrong.
Your theory that the only two possibilities are being duped or being stupid is not correct. If DeWitt felt duped, Mozeliak would not still be employed. And BDW is definitely not stupid. We finally agree on that one thing.
If DeWitt felt duped, Mozeliak would not still be employed.
That would amount to BDW admitting to being duped. Surely you can agree that would not do. Rather some face saving mechanism would have to be employed, and it was, and is, and will, until the end of the season.
Here is a job posting from the Cardinals in October.
https://x.com/JulPrusac/status/1846229417640460293
Looks like a lot of the analytics staff were recent hires.
I don’t recall ever seeing “The Forkball” – but it looks like this author saw the same thing I did.
Funny. There are those inside and outside the organization who think the influence of analytics has been too great, not too little.
Here’s how I see things:
Bling’s perception of the Cardinals analytics staff’s influence is that the Cardinals do things that defy long-time baseball principles, and there is no other reason for them doing this than computers are telling them.
I view it as they are either incompetent at understanding how to apply analytics to the sport of baseball (yes, there are people that are booksmart but don’t have one ounce of common sense), or the Cardinals simply started doing things (like platooning LH hitters against LHP’s but not platooning anyone else) simply because they heard other teams platoon hitters and they thought that’s what they should be doing and didn’t have anybody in the org that can look at Baseball Reference and say, “Wait a minute! This is how you do a platoon!”
Last line of the ‘Forkball’ article linked above:
their ineptitude has given them no other options than the current course.
I agree with the ineptitude part, but not the no other options part. They could have fired Mo and installed Bloom at the end of the season. They could have fired Marmol and his staff at the end of the season.
There are those inside and outside the organization who think the influence of analytics has been too great, not too little.
Who inside the organization things that?
When Lunhow was here the Cardinals were supposedly the envy of MLB when it came to innovation and analytics. If I recall correctly the Cardinals had the number 1 ranked farm system in 2013. They also happened to appear in the Word Series that year. Those two things combined are rare and it appeared the Cardinals had a dynasty in the making.
As Lee Corso would say, “not so fast my friend.” Instead of a dynasty Lunhow, LaRussa, and Pujols left in 2011 and the Cardinals got fat and lazy and relied on low hanging fruit. Mo asserted himself and decided we would only hire rookie managers, the farm system started producing busts and got depleted, and the team gradually got worse and worse.
Bill DeWitt suddenly realized it was time to reverse course and try to revive the analytics and build from within model. Enter Chaim Bloom.
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