What Went Wrong -2018 Bullpen

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This topic contains 43 replies, has 15 voices, and was last updated by EuroWolf EuroWolf 11 months, 4 weeks ago.

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  • #62409
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    PadsFS
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    In terms of player cost, value of the draft pick, and on-field results/usage by Mike Matheny, Holland was probably a $40 million mistake. Probably not a coincidence that the guy who wanted him signed is already gone.
    — Craig Edwards (@craigjedwards) July 27, 2018

    I’m trying to understand this. Holland put up a 0.0 WAR season with the Cardinals and got paid $14.0M so -$14.0M there.

    The pick is valued at $4.5M, maybe a little higher, even though only 38.3% of the 59th picks in the draft have ever made the majors. So tack on another $4-6M, making it an even $20.0M. Even if you used BR.com’s -1.4 WAR rather than the 0.0 at Fangraphs, that’s only $10-15M in “WAR dollars”.

    • This reply was modified 11 months, 4 weeks ago by Avatar PadsFS.
    #62414
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    NJ315
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    0.0 WAR? interesting. I don’t know much about the subject but that doesn’t look right. -1.4 WAR more likely

    #62426
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    PadsFS
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    His FIP was 4.56 I think.

    #62435
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    gscottar
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    Holland and Lyons DFA’d
    Tui traded to Mariners
    Cecil to DL

    I suspect Tui and Lyons were expendable because they were out of options.

    #62441
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    #62448
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    Cardinals27
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    W L ERA G SVS SVO IP H R ER HR HBP BAA
    8 1 1.99 50 0 0 0 14 16 63.1 34 20 14 2 3 23 1 96 .155

    Impressive numbers by Elledge, formerly of Mariners. Assigned to Springfield

    #62449
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    CariocaCardinal
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    Like the player they got for Tui but not sure why he was sent out. One of only 3 relievers that improved our win chances when he entered the game.

    Lyons could still go to the minors if no one claims him off waivers.

    #62451
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    thejager
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    well they said moves were coming and they were right

    -good get for Tuivalala IMO looks like a good prospect
    -Hudson to the pen looks likely, his groundballs will work just fine
    -Webb looks like he is worth the shot, he has some experience and was doing well…if he fails you move on to the next option
    -Holland being gone had to happen…im guessing he gets another job quick
    -Lyons DFA bothers me a bit…he has been poor, but it seems linked to his injury…when right Lyons is a nasty weapon…i am surprised they didnt give him the offseason to fix himself and recover..i am sure someone could pinch his arm and then they could ask if he has arm discomfort…and say yes…i think he latches on somewhere else soon too
    -Cecil to DL seems odd…i guess they are still hoping for next year him figuring it out…didnt want to throw TOO much money away today after Holland i guess

    -Norris being eyed by Boston looks like something is happening there…maybe add in JMart of Gyorko and see what we an pry from their system

    Bullpen is:
    Norris (for the moment), Hicks, Brebbia, Hudson, Greger, Webb, Mayers, Ponce, Gant

    I have to think Greene is coming soon…probably if Norris is gone

    Rotation:
    CMart, Jack, Mik, Weaver, Gomber

    Did i miss something or do we have an extra bullpen guy right now?

    another move coming?

    Also, another Seattle deal…makes me think maybe we can continue that relationship…id love to get Kyle Lewis and Evan White from them… they are their top two prospects OF and 1b…but they woudl be just the type of prospects we could use….LEwis looks like a future star and White would be a great eventual Carp replacement by the time he makes it up

    Seattle is going for it now obviously…and we could help them get there…

    -JMart i think could work there, even if he has to play 1b with Cruz at DH…they have been searching for a dependable bat for 1b
    -Pham might look good to them too…or maybe Ozuna
    -we could also offer up Weaver….
    -OR…we offer them CMart….and go big on those big time prospects

    #62460
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    gscottar
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    Like the player they got for Tui but not sure why he was sent out. One of only 3 relievers that improved our win chances when he entered the game.

    Lyons could still go to the minors if no one claims him off waivers.

    I think one of the reasons is because he was out of options.

    #62464
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    CariocaCardinal
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    Out of options? So what? If he is one of your best relievers why would you want to option him anyway? Also really cheap the next 2 years and 3 years arb after that. 5 years of team control.

    #62469
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    gscottar
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    Well I wouldn’t have considered him on of our best relievers and I imagine the team didn’t either. The guys they called up today and the guys still in the minors are probably thought of higher and they still have options, thus more flexibility to do the Memphis shuttle.

    #62500
    stlcard25
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    Elledge has had excellent K rates and good WHIP in his minors time. Seems like a classic case of trading an asset now for an asset later.

    Tui was decent but overall he’s better suited to being the 6th or 7th guy in an 8 man pen. Not a huge loss.

    #62574
    stlcard25
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    You’re spot on Ny. Fixing the mess is a good idea. Having the same guy doing the fixing as who created the mess is worrisome. Nobody’s perfect, but the list of misfires and no-fires is lengthy, not just a couple.

    Euro, I’d like to see you spend some time to defend this position. Name all these misfires, and one year deals don’t count.

    From my side, the front office has done a really good job over the years finding diamonds in the rough (like Mikolas, Oh, Jose Martinez and Bowman before this year) and knowing when to trade away declining players (like Allen Craig and Shelby Miller) at just the right time for profit. I can think of two, maybe three deals that I’d call big misses.

    #62598
    EuroWolf
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    stlcard25: One year deals don’t count? Part of what energized this discussion is the suggestion (per @craigjedwards) Matheny was not coincidentally fired, in part, for advocating a poor and glaring one-year deal this year. Sorry, they definitely do count. Especially when the value of the gaffe is $40MM (not that I buy that #). If that’s the consequence for the guy advocating the deal, what about the guy who actually made the deal? And that’s the same guy who made the preceding poor deals to put the situation in panic mode to make the subsequent bad deal necessary in the first place. So, I have to LOL at the idea that one-year deals don’t count, but that’s just a small consideration.

    Before having a real analysis (defend position as you said), I think you’d have to establish what is good/bad performance for a GM. It might go something like this (or maybe not). There are X number of total deals made by a GM, then rate each one as good, bad or neutral? Or would it be done individually by the players involved in each of the deals, rather than the deal as a whole? What would give a GM a good grade? Some percentage of good versus bad? Some overall numerical rating, positive or negative. There probably needs to be weighting factors, so deals like Leake, Fowler, Holland, Cecil should probably factor more than deals/acquisitions like Oh, Ozuna, Grichuk, Bourjos, Broxton, Norris etc. Where are the analytics for evaluating general managers? Otherwise, you’re just cherry picking anecdotal exhibits that support your case.

    The above doesn’t even consider the draft, on and on. Perhaps the biggest issue, though, is architecting of the roster. How well do the various parts fit together? Does the total exceed the sum of the parts? Do the various parts complement each other? This is important in sculpting a “team,” i.e., roster construction. For what it’s worth, this is an area in recent years in which that I think Mozeliak has been very, very poor. It’s been evidenced by what appears to be a 3rd consecutive year of regressing. It’s also been evidenced by so many guys playing out of position and being put in positions where they might not have the best chance to succeed. Not all that is on the manager, and just so you know, I think Matheny’s recent termination was for the best.

    #62639
    bicyclemike
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    It seems almost unreal that the Cardinals have acquired so many guys that have under-performed. But then some signs were there with several of these guys, as Holland, Gregerson, and Fowler were certainly on the downhill side of their careers.

    Ozuna should be in his prime, but my sense is that bad right arm is impacting his power. You would think Cecil would have been better, but he is an epic disaster, even worse than Holland given the length of the deal.

    Fortunately Norris and Mikolas are working out, so the front office has not totally whiffed on free agent acquisitions. And relief pitchers have historically been guys who tend to have good years and bad years off and on. Now and then an Eckersley or Rivera will come along and be good year after year. But even Bruce Sutter had some down years, and he’s in the Hall.

    #62646
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    gscottar
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    I’m a little disappointed that Cecil and Gregerson survived Black Friday. They should have been DFA’d also. Ironically, we will end up paying Holland more than Gregerson but I guess for some reason it is different since one is paid for one year and the other is paid out over two years. Makes no sense to me.

    And to clarify when I state that someone should lose his job I don’t mean it personally. It is just business. They are being paid a lot of money so it is hard to feel too sorry for them.

    #62665
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    gscottar
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    Last night both Danny Mac and Ricky Horton stated that Mayers have been totally under utilized this year. I agree. I think he can be a quality set up man for us the rest of the way.

    #62698
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    PadsFS
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    I like the way Mayers has been eased into the bullpen. If Gregerson, Holland, and Leone had performed as they did in the past, Mayers’ usage wouldn’t be questioned at all.

    I’m not going to miss Tuivailala. He never really struck guys out well given his heater. Guys like Hudson and Helsley could easily out-perform him, imo, if moved to the bullpen, much like Mayers.

    #62707
    EuroWolf
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    Tui just never was able to take that next developmental step. I’m mixed on losing him, but he seemed stuck in a rut in StL. Maybe this one will work out well for both teams.

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