What Went Wrong -2018 Bullpen

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This topic contains 43 replies, has 15 voices, and was last updated by Euro Dandy Euro Dandy 1 year, 2 months ago.

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  • #62233
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    PadsFS
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    It’s amazing how poor our bullpen has been after the overhaul this past winter, which seemingly injected new blood into the pen.

    Let’s start with last year:

    Lost in 2018
    Oh – 59 innings – 4.10 ERA, 4.43 FIP, FA
    Nicasio – 11 innings – 1.64 ERA, 2.89 FIP, FA
    Duke – 18 innings – 3.93 ERA, 5.29 FIP, FA
    Broxton – 15 innings – 6.89 ERA, 4.77 FIP, FA
    Socolovich – 18 innings – 8.68 ERA, 5.28 FIP, FA
    Siegrist – 34 innings – 4.98 ERA, 4.39 FIP, FA

    Sherriff – 14 innings – 3.14 ERA, 3.93 FIP, Injured
    Rosenthal – 47 innings – 3.40 ERA, 2.15 FIP, Injured

    Lucas – 7 innings – 3.68 ERA, 6.84 FIP, Traded
    Alcantara – 8 innings – 4.32 ERA, 6.04 FIP, Traded

    What’s amazing is the sheer level of turnover here. We jettisoned an entire bullpen’s worth of key players.

    Players that we kept:
    Cecil – 67 innings – 3.88 ERA, 3.26 FIP
    Bowman – 58 innings – 3.99 ERA, 3.65 FIP
    Lyons – 54 innings – 2.83 ERA, 2.86 FIP
    Brebbia – 51 innings – 2.44, 4.13 FIP
    Tuivailala – 42 innings – 2.56 ERA, 3.70 FIP
    Gant – 17 innings – 4.67 ERA, 6.79 FIP

    I look at that list and it really does look like a formidable base to build from. From the two lists, it seems like Mozeliak made the right call in who to bring back and who can seek other pastures.

    Then this years numbers:
    Cecil – 23 innings – 5.70 ERA, 5.35 FIP (WORSE)
    Bowman – 23 innings – 6.26 ERA, 4.72 FIP (WORSE)
    Lyons – 17 innings – 8.64 ERA, 5.02 FIP (WORSE)
    Brebbia – 33 innings – 4.05, 2.98 FIP (WORSE)
    Tuivailala – 31 innings – 3.69 ERA, 3.98 FIP (WORSE)

    Every single one of them has had a worse season in 2018 than 2017.

    Lets revisit the lost ex-Cardinals for 2018:
    Oh – 47 innings – 2.68 ERA, 3.03 FIP (BETTER)
    Nicasio – 39 innings – 5.77 ERA, 2.39 FIP (WORSE)
    Duke – 37 innings – 3.62 ERA, 2.68 FIP (BETTER)
    Lucas – 14 innings – 6.28 ERA, 4.21 FIP (WORSE)

    So there’s a couple of guys that perhaps should have been kept. Of course, most of us (especially me) were clamoring to re-sign Nicasio, not Duke or Oh.

    Mozeliak knew that we would need to supplement the five remaining holdovers at the very least. So he looked at the FA reliever market and targeted a couple guys.

    FAs signed performance in 2017:
    Holland – 57 innings – 3.61 ERA, 3.72 FIP
    Gregerson – 61 innings – 4.57 ERA, 4.62 FIP
    Norris – 62 innings – 4.21 ERA, 3.90 FIP

    FAs signed performance in 2018:
    Holland – 25 innings – 7.92 ERA, 4.56 FIP (WORSE)
    Gregerson – 12 innings – 7.11 ERA, 4.74 FIP (WORSE)
    Norris – 41 innings – 3.29 ERA, 3.09 FIP (BETTER)

    How unfortunate…

    • This topic was modified 1 year, 2 months ago by Avatar PadsFS.
    #62237
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    bccran
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    On paper, it should be a good bullpen with Holland, Leone, Gregerson, Norris, Cecil, Lyons, Brebbia, and Tuivailala.
    etc.

    Doesn’t make sense.

    #62239
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    PadsFS
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    I didn’t include Leone, but that’s another one that has absolutely failed to deliver in 2018 over his 2017 performance.

    #62244
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    bccran
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    Pads – is it pure underperformance, or more a rash of injuries to Leone, Gregerson, Lyons, Bowman, Holland, etc.

    #62245
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    Onyxgem
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    Gregerson has been getting worse for a few years so him looking like that didn’t surprise me at all

    #62248
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    gscottar
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    Great work Pads! Thanks for those numbers.

    This year’s pen has been an epic disaster. For Mo to declare at WWU that Gregerson would be our closer was a farce and everyone knew it. Then they wait until opening day to sign Holland and he has never got on track.

    I know our FO may be gun shy about making any more outside investments in the pen but this upcoming offseason would certainly be the year to do it. There are several high end arms available:

    Kimbrel, Miller, Allen, Familia, Herrera, and Britton. Surely we can pick one out of that group who won’t be the next Holland right??

    #62257
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    PadsFS
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    Or perhaps Holland round 2 given how Duke and Oh bounced back. It seems entirely driven by luck.

    #62268
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    gscottar
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    #62284
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    vegasjim
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    Have currently 9 and if Hudson gets a start 10 starting pitchers who made a start this year returning.

    CMart – Wacha – Miles

    Then the rookies: Weaver, Flaherty, Reyes, Gant, Gomber, Hudson, Poncedeleon.

    In my mind you need to target moving 2 or 3 of these guys to the pen.

    #62382
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    14NyquisT
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    one can’t trust management to make correct/prudent choices anymore. they are too busy covering their butts for the last batch of misfires. if you or i tried to acquire a worse bunch, all at one time, it couldn’t be done.
    holland-gregerson-cecil-leone. in the same bullpen. extraordinary… “fine work”.

    and this is the guy(mozeliak) who the card fans want to reboot with?

    #62385
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    #62388
    stlcard25
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    Ny… absolutely. If you find some GM that never makes mistakes, then I suppose you’d have a case. Your case is being built on Fowler and Cecil, basically. A one year deal is never ever anything more than a minor mistake, even as bad as Holland is. Leone we got for a dud extra OFer, and he will be good once he gets healthy.

    Gyorko, Mikolas, Norris more than cover the mistakes and that’s just guys currently on the roster.

    #62390
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    14NyquisT
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    i hope it doesn’t stop with holland. send gregerson, cecil, leone and fowler along with him. or will the f.o. blame it on holland…. and matheny?

    #62391
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    Onyxgem
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    Well sounds like Holland going to be released soon

    #62393
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    14NyquisT
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    yeah, the f.o. proclaimed that the team was set to be a play-off contender and still is. so why the topic and extensive conversation? and you forgot to mention our power-hitting cleanup hitter with the strong arm.
    are we to put him in their plus column?

    #62394
    stlcard25
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    i hope it doesn’t stop with holland. send gregerson, cecil, leone and fowler along with him. or will the f.o. blame it on holland…. and matheny?

    Why Leone with the others? He’s not even arb eligible yet, coming off a season as an elite setup man, peripherals were good before his injury.

    #62396
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    14NyquisT
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    does anyone want to guess who his roster replacement might be?

    #62397
    stlcard25
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    yeah, the f.o. proclaimed that the team was set to be a play-off contender and still is. so why the topic and extensive conversation? and you forgot to mention our power-hitting cleanup hitter with the strong arm.
    are we to put him in their plus column?

    Given what we gave up for him and with a year left on contract it’s definitely too early to call it. It’s an incomplete at this point.

    #62398
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    #62399
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    I believe DFA is only seven days now, but the main point is that the Cards could use the time to see if they could at least get something for Holland. A straight release today seems unlikely.

    #62404
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    Bw52
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    I wonder if Holland would accept going to Memphis if he goes unclaimed by any team? Also wonder if Cecil can be traded for a low level prospect or whatever.Way too early to give up on Leone and I would like to see if Gregerson can be a useful middle inning bullpen guy.Lyons is another question marlk………since Lefty arms are so valued would he be worth holding on to or will the FO decide to trade him for peanuts/whatever they can get.

    #62405
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    14NyquisT
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    25… the incomplete for Ozuna is another reason why the team has imploded. The ’18 lineup was built around him. The team needed power hitter, somehow the lights went out.

    Ozuna is hitting better recently but still without the HRs we were promised. And his arm, well, ya know, problematic because its obviously hurting. So why is he still playing? Average #s… bum wing.

    #62406
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    14NyquisT
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    Bw… I’ve been saying that any new faces will be welcomed by manager/coaches, players, and fans.

    #62407
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    Holland will get a major league job somewhere else. I’d give going to Memphis less than 1% odds.

    #62408
    Euro Dandy
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    You’re spot on Ny. Fixing the mess is a good idea. Having the same guy doing the fixing as who created the mess is worrisome. Nobody’s perfect, but the list of misfires and no-fires is lengthy, not just a couple.

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