The Cardinal Nation’s Team Recaps and Top Players of 2019

Home The Cardinal Nation Forums Open Forum The Cardinal Nation’s Team Recaps and Top Players of 2019

This topic contains 84 replies, has 10 voices, and was last updated by Brian Walton Brian Walton 5 days, 5 hours ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 51 through 75 (of 85 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #112232
    Avatar
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Interesting that the number 2 player in the system is not player of the year for Peoria or Palm Beach. Perhaps he didn’t have enough AB’s to qualify.

    #112250
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    The process we defined years ago, write about and follow is that a player qualifies for annual awards on the team for which he has the most at-bats or innings pitched.

    For Gorman, that was Peoria, and he was not their best hitter this season. The fact that he was the best prospect is immaterial to this process.

    Though I did not do the detailed analysis and did not select the winners, a quick look at wRC+ shows Gorman was fifth among Chiefs hitters. Ahead were Herrera, Donovan, Diaz and Nootbaar.

    (Though he did not qualify at Palm Beach, Gorman would have been fourth in wRC+, after Toerner, Yepez and Kirtley.)

    #112254
    Avatar
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    My observation was more about Gorman than the selection process although I admit I wasn’t fully aware of all of the selection procedures, especially the emphasis wRC+. It doesn’t mean the rules weren’t posted. It just means I didn’t read them close enough or didn’t remember.

    Regardless I would expect more of Gorman.

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 2 days ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #112256
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Just to be clear, I don’t tell the writers to use wRC+ or any other measure. I do use it, however, to help me in selecting the system-wide Player of the Year. In this particular case, I didn’t want to spend a lot of time doing player analysis, so cited it as a quick measure to put Gorman’s results in context.

    He is very young for his leagues, so I am perhaps less concerned than you. But then again, his performance this year is one reason why he is no longer my no. 1 prospect – that and Carlson’s strong season.

    #112299
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #112421
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #112473
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #112588
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #112591
    Avatar
    GameCard
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    In two years there may not be a 32hd round.

    #112698
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #112797
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #112843
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #112913
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #112981
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #112987
    Avatar
    Cardinals27
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Don’t quite understand why several players didn’t make BA’s list. Redmond in the Appy league, Rondon, despite winning the ERA title in the TL, in both Florida State and Texas Leagues, and Whitley and Fernandez in several leagues. Possibly Redmond didn’t have a set position? But Redmond was near the top of all offensive categories. And maybe relievers don’t get noticed easily? Or maybe they jumped through too many levels.

    #113067
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #113130
    stlcard25
    stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I haven’t been following these as close as last year but Hudson would have been my pick for rookie of the year. As you laid out in the article, he led the team in wins and was very high on the list of all rookie pitchers in many categories. I know that wins aren’t the only thing that matters for starters but I think he had the most wins by a Cards rookie since the 60s? That deserves better treatment.

    Edman was fun and definitely a spark plug but he also only played half a year and didn’t have to face guys who were making constant adjustments to him multiple times throughout the year. That’s a big advantage and one that surely helped make his stats look better than they would have been in an entire season (see Dejong, Paul and Bader, Harrison).

    Given that, Hudson was very underrated this year and IMO deserved the award.

    #113143
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    stlcard25, I am assuming you do not accept WAR as a valid comparison vehicle since both Edman and Gallegos fared considerably better than Hudson in that measure. Why not, and more importantly, what stats would you use instead to objectively compare a hitter, a starter and a reliever?

    As you will see in the Starter of the Year Award coming Thursday (spoiler: Hudson will not win that either), he and Wainwright benefited from much better run support. Mikolas and Flaherty pitched better by most other measures, but had fewer wins to show for their efforts.

    #113292
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #113311
    Avatar
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    As you will see in the Starter of the Year Award coming Thursday (spoiler: Hudson will not win that either), he and Wainwright benefited from much better run support. Mikolas and Flaherty pitched better by most other measures, but had fewer wins to show for their efforts.

    I have wondered for years whether would it be possible to try to scientifically determine why certain pitchers get more run support than others. I am of the opinion that it is not coincidence although I don’t know how to prove that theory. Just observing baseball over the years there always seems to be certain pitchers who just don’t get the support. I don’t know if it is something pyschological that affects the team when they are on the mound or if it is the pace at which they perform or they assume it is going to be a low scoring game or maybe some other factor.

    #113313
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    On the broader question, if you could figure out how to make the Cardinals offense consistently work right, no matter who is pitching for either side, you could he a hero!

    #113315
    stlcard25
    stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    stlcard25, I am assuming you do not accept WAR as a valid comparison vehicle since both Edman and Gallegos fared considerably better than Hudson in that measure. Why not, and more importantly, what stats would you use instead to objectively compare a hitter, a starter and a reliever?

    Brian, you are correct(ish)…or more appropriately, I feel that fWAR does an especially terrible job at valuing pitchers in general and definitely a guy like Hudson. Hudson gets nicked because his ground ball rate is elite, he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, and the fWAR formula pretty much doesn’t take into account at all team composition or pitcher style. It’s all strikeouts, walks and avoiding home runs.

    So Hudson started all season, put up very good numbers that fit with the team defense perfectly, led or was close to leading all rookie pitchers in almost every category as you mentioned, had 17 quality starts (many coming in that May-June stretch where the rest of the rotation was scuffling)…and was barely an above replacement player by fWAR. I don’t buy it. RA9-WAR, which is probably more appropriate anyway and certainly for a ground ball guy like Hudson, had him at 3.4 WAR, which is closer to how I’d value him.

    Anyway, the starter/reliever comparison is fairly easy for me…the starter will always get the nod unless the reliever is an all time great. Gallegos was great but pitching 100 less innings than Hudson, he just can’t make up the value gap IMO.

    So it comes down to Hudson vs Edman…Tommy was fun and a catalyst in the Cardinals turnaround, but he also didn’t play a full season. As his fWAR (3.2) and bWAR (3.8) were in the ballpark as Dakota’s RA9-WAR (3.4), I give the nod to the guy who contributed for the entire season and not 60% of it.

    #113321
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Edman played in 92 games, Gallegos 66 and Hudson 33, though I don’t consider number of games relevant. Players who play more accumulate more WAR, so it is already baked in.

    Thanks for taking the time to explain your point of view. We will have to agree to disagree.

    P.S. I really had to dig to even find RA9-WAR numbers as they are not on individual player pages on Fangraphs. That measure indicates Hudson was the second-best pitcher on the entire staff, after Flaherty. That feels too aggressive to me.

    What do you say about Hudson’s 4.93 FIP (worse than Waino, Flaherty, Mikolas and Ponce) and his 4.55 xFIP? Does FIP also discriminate against ground ball, low-strikeout, high-walk pitchers or it is something else?

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 6 days ago by Brian Walton Brian Walton.
    #113337
    stlcard25
    stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    What do you say about Hudson’s 4.93 FIP (worse than Waino, Flaherty, Mikolas and Ponce) and his 4.55 xFIP? Does FIP also discriminate against ground ball pitchers or it is something else?

    Absolutely FIP discriminates against guys who depend on soft contact and grounders more than anyone else. Again, it’s all about strikeouts, walks and homers for FIP’s measurements. Fangraphs bases their pitcher WAR on it, which is how you get things like Daniel Ponce De Leon being nearly as valuable in less than 50 innings as Hudson was in 175. I’m just not a fan of basing a pitcher’s value on some kind of fielding independent scenario. A guy could induce soft grounders all day and look in control but FIP will say he was mediocre because he let balls get put in play.

    I don’t really know what the solution is for valuing pitchers but I wouldn’t agree with you that Hudson wasn’t the second best pitcher on the staff this year. In my opinion, he clearly was. All the stats except FIP make the case.

    That said, I understand the choice of Edman. He was flashy and good, and position players get the nod almost every time due to the simple volume of playing time. I’m just saying that Hudson was underrated and has an excellent case as the best rookie.

    #113402
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

Viewing 25 posts - 51 through 75 (of 85 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

First-hand news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals™ and their minor league system for 20 years