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As much as I like Goldy (IMO the best player on the team), I don’t care about future HOF consideration or what uniform he might wear. Will he and ‘Nado be able to send us deep into the playoffs in 2024? If so, give him a generous 1-year contract for 2025, but keep the door open to a younger, productive replacement. It’s about winning, not about who gets a red jacket or into the HOF. Same goes for Arenado when his time comes. 2022 was our best chance to go far, but they blew it. Cardinals need to have a “what have you done for me lately” attitude instead of hanging on to relics.
I doubt that’s true Brian. I, for one, don’t care much about the Hall of fame or red coats. While it’s nice to have such an honor and I’m happy for a Cardinal who gets it, I certainly don’t buy an expensive ticket and pay exorbitant prices for a hot dog and a beer because Scot Rolen is in the HOF or Goldy might be one day. I pay outrageous prices because I love the game and enjoy the atmosphere at the ballpark.
Of course that’s just me and perhaps you’re right that yesterday’s heros do continue to suck in the big bucks. Yet as much as I loved Stan Musial, it’s not him that draws me to a game whenever I get a chance today.
On the other hand, I’m sure your finger is much closer to the pulse of today’s Cards fan than mine out here at the epicenter of rugby and soccer (ick!).
I have no doubt that the 2022 gate was improved substantially by those who wanted to see Pujols and Yadi play their final season. Same for Wainwright and his quest for 200 wins in 2023. The team marketed this heavily. Can’t blame them.
Heck, the number of additional people who come for bobblehead nights always surprises me. They come through the gates, get the doll, then go out. Some come back in again with another ticket to get another trinket.
I have always wondered how many fans in the park on a given night are avid fans like the posters here. Less than half maybe? But they all buy concessions…
I’m not at all sure the presense of Wainwright helped in ’23. Anyone who watched could immediately see that actual attendance was down to near nothing. I watched countless games in which 10 to 12K or less were in attendance. It got so bad that it actually seemed as though the cameras avoided panning to include all of the empty seats. The presense of Albert Pujols undoubtedly helped to boost attendance in ’22, but two huge factors played into that boost in attendance. The team was winning and Albert was on a successful quest for 700 HR’s. Goldschmidt won’t sell any tickets or fill any seats if the team tanks.
Numbers are better than the eyeball.
In 2023, Wainwright started 11 home games, and the average attendance was 40,963. Over the other 70 home dates, the team averaged 39,864. So on the average 1100 more tickets were sold per game or over 12,000 more tickets over the course of the year for his starts. Of course, there is no way to assess no shows as turnstile counts are not released.
The lion’s share of those seats are sold while Cardinal fans are busy shoveling snow from the driveway. And although they’re not released, the number of turnstile clicks tell the true tale insofar as the genuine fortunes of the ballclub. One quick glance at the grandstands told the viewer that the product was a lousy one in ’23. No one showed up to see something that wasn’t worth watching. If Redbird fortunes continue to decline, there’s no question that the decline will spill over into less tickets being sold over the winter. I can recall when 18K to 20K was a nice sized take and 10K or less was by no means unheard of. I don’t think for a second that it couldn’t happen again.
I agree there were many no shows and that increased as the season progressed, but the question was whether or not more fans paid to see Wainwright. The numbers of tickets sold indicate they did. (And people didn’t know far in advance which days he would start.)
Whether Goldy means more buns in seats is impossible to measure. In a few years as his career is ending, maybe if he is chasing some kind of career milestone, it might help ticket sales.
Brian Walton
I have always wondered how many fans in the park on a given night are avid fans like the posters here. Less than half maybe? But they all buy concessions…
Way less than that. I’ve never met another Cardinals fan that is like us in my life.
Goldschmidt was National League MVP in 2022. In 2023 his WAR was 3.4 and he hit 25 HR. I don’t think anyone should assume that in 4 years, at the ripe old age of 39, he will be no more than a beaten and tattered image of himself. The truth is that the guy hardly ever sees the IL, and he can still play. Add to that the intangibles that he brings to his team, and to the overall game, and it makes all kinds of sense to extend him.
He will be extended no worries on that. We can expect the production to go down. Why does it have to be all the way to “a beaten and tattered image of himself”. The decline will happen how fast who knows but it will happen.
It doesn’t matter what Goldy’s production is. A bronze bust can just be a bronze bust, like Adam last year. Sells tickets.
I was exaggerating, sarcastically, to make the point that four years is not a long time and 39 years old is not old. Wainwright pitched 206 innings and posted an ERA of 3.05 at the age of 39. He even got some CYA votes and some MVP votes that year. Sure, Goldscmidt’s production is going to drop off, but when and how much is to be determined.
If he’s placed in a position of the batting order that plays to his strengths it won’t surprise me too much at all if he generates more overall offensive production than any other Cardinal in ’24. I still think he’s the best all around hitter on this team.
TD, If Noot and Donovan are healthy and Donnie isn’t messed up from listening to the hitting guru again this winter, then there will be no need for Goldy to step into the #2 slot and no need for Edman to bat at the top of the order. They both need to stay off the IL too.
I’ve never either Pads, but I’m not surprised we “avid” fans collected here. I’m sure “avid” at the top brought us here!
Brian provides the quality information flow that attracts those who want to be informed as much as possible.
That “avid” informed fan has much to share, which leads to a top-tier forum. Ya’ bunch of seamheads! HA!
I’m still wondering when or if Donovan’s throwing arm will be up to speed. And it’s more than a little disconcerting to realize that since DeJong is now in Chicago that there’s no need for the Redbird hitting guru to straighten out his swing over the winter…That should free him up to place his entire focus on poor Donovan…
Donovan messed up by hitting guru? He has been great the last 2 years when on the field.
If you refer to Jeff Albert. He did good work we had 6-8 rounders become good hitters. Offensive player development has bee good the last few yearsI still think that extending Goldschmidt for 2 years/$45-$50M with a mutual option for a third year would a great move. The problem is that Goldschmidt and his agent apparently want 4 yrs guaranteed and $97M. I suspect that that’s something of a deal killer for the front office. If Goldschmidt isn’t signed by mid April, there’s a good chance that he will be moving on after the season. And that could very well motivate an Arenado trade at the trade deadline, or maybe before. By the start of season 2025, we could see Burleson at 1B, Gorman at 3B, and Edman at 2B. Also, somewhere along the line Saggese’s bat is going to drive him onto the active roster. Why bring that up now? Because Burleson and Saggese are both having a very strong spring and there’s presently no obvious answer regarding what to do with them after Edman and Nootbaar come back.
Burleson, Saggese and Prieto have fabulous potential as MLB hitters. The Cardinals are fortunate to have them in the organization. How it plays out for these three in this organization is anybody’s guess.
“Relics” give a franchise its identity (aka they sell tickets)! 😉
Brian, I think ownership agrees with you. However, I would argue *winning* gives a franchise its identity, and winning is a byproduct in large part of having great players who play great in your team’s uniform. But I think in the new economic landscape of MLB, with much wider dispersion and skew of local revenues, the harder question going forward is can a franchise that now consistently ranks slightly below median (and therefore well below average) in payroll afford the luxury of these legacy contracts and still “compete every year,” as ownership and the FO like to say. I am not sure, I think the “model” is stressed, but the decisions of the organization often seem to reflect some degree of fear that their fan base will abandon them if they even mouth the words “soft-reset/rebuild.” Perhaps they’re right about that (they certainly should know the views of the base better than anyone), but sometimes I think they don’t give their fans enough credit.
Goldschmidt presents another interesting test case: even if one thinks he’s going to be decent for the next 2-3 years and generate 2-3 WAR per year (a generous forecast above ZIPS), are they better off paying close to FA market prices for those 3 wins, or handing the baton to the next generation and hoping to get 2-3 WAR from one of the young guys making close to MLB minimum? Pretty sure I know what the Rays would do (they probably would have done it last year at the trade deadline), but it’s not clear at all what the Cardinals will do. They don’t seem to have a clear identity.
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