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The difference this year is that the players at Memphis that were highly ranked reached the “ready for MLB” point or were not blocked anymore. Hicks-Bader-O’Neill-Munoz-Gomber-Poncedeleon, plus added experience for the second year guys Flaherty-Weaver-DeJong. With the Carpenter exploits, its easy to see that this team is better this year and will be better yet in ’19.
Don’t forget this team is without CMartinez-Wacha-Wainwright-Reyes, and these guys were going to be instrumental in taking the team to the playoffs. The team is better right now. Besides Norris, the players that Mozeliak brought in (and there where many) have done little to improve the Cards.
I think our chances of getting to the playoffs have gone up exponentially since the managerial change. 19-9 is no accident. As long as we don’t activate and use too many of our bad bullpen options I like our chances.
I think we are about two weeks away from knowing exactly what we have. This has been a good two weeks. Our young pitching has been the best group of starters in the league recently. The bullpen is now adequate, little more. The lineup seems to have a different star every night. The guy who was 0-4 last night gets three hits today. You can win with this lineup if that energy persists.
The Cards are now tied with Arizona for the 4th best record in the NL. Chicago leads, followed by Atlanta 3 back, Philadelphia 3.5 back, St Louis and Arizona 4 back, Milwaukee and Colorado 4.5 back, and LA 6 back. It’s that bunched in the senior circuit.
The Cards currently have a 47.5% chance of making the playoffs, per Fangraphs. After today’s game, there are six on the road with LA and Colorado. The next week will be a good test and a chance to separate out from a few teams.
Interestingly, 538’s model predicts the following standings right now:
Atlanta 88-74
Philadelphia 88-74Chicago 94-68 (boo)
St Louis 88-74
Milwaukee 87-75Los Angeles 88-74
Arizona 88-74
Colorado 87-75Talk about a crazy final week and now nuts would that playoff for the playoffs be?? I guess you’d have ATL/PHI and LA/AZ face off for divisions, then the weird WC policy for three teams?
As fun as that would be from a baseball standpoint, here’s hoping the Cards keep on winning and take the drama out of it. ?
Last 10 games:
Stl 9-1
Col 7-3
Chc, Atl 6-4
Ari 5-5
Phi, Wsh, Pit 4-6
Mil, Lad 3-7Last 20 games:
Stl 15-5
Atl 13-7
Ari 12-8
Chc, Col 11-9
Phi, Wsh 10-10
Mil, Pit 9-11
Lad 8-12Another week later and here are the standings as of this morning:
Division Leaders:
Chicago 71-51 (4-2 last week)
Atlanta 68-54 (5-3 last week)
Arizona 68-56 (4-2 last week)Wild Card:
Philadelphia 68-55 (3-4 last week)
St. Louis 68-56 (6-1 last week)Colorado 67-56 0.5 GB (5-1 last week)
Milwaukee 68-57 0.5 GB (1-4 last week)
LAD 66-58 2.0 GB (2-4 last week)
Pittsburgh 62-62 6.0 GB (1-5 last week)
Washington 62-62 6.0 GB (2-5 last week)
SF 61-63 7.0 GB (3-3 last week)The Braves went ahead of the Phillies for the East Division lead and the Diamondbacks gained sole possession of the West Division lead. The Cardinals passed the Brewers for the 2nd Wild Card. The Rockies gained 2 games in the race for the Wild Card and are tied with Brewers. The Dodgers slipped an additional 1 game further back in the Wild Card standings this week. The Pirates dropped 2 games further behind this week and the Nationals fell 1 1/2 games further back. The Giants finished the week without gaining or losing ground on the Wild Card.
For the remainder of the season, we play 3 games against Detroit, 3 games against the Reds and the other 32 games are against those 10 teams with the exception of Philadelphia and Arizona. The final 3 games of the season are against the Cubs and are the only games we have left with them. We currently sit 4 games out of first place in the Central Division.
As they say we are now in control of our own destiny. We no longer need help from others. We just have to continue winning to make it.
FWIW, the Cards have improved from 14th to 8th in MLB.com’s power rankings.
The cubbies just cannot get HFA ( that’s “Home Field Advantage” for those of you residing in Joliet ). But, if you think about it, it really makes no difference, as there is no way in blazes that the cubs can go the distance with that weak starting pitching staff of theirs. With HFA they could claim the NL pennant though due to the lack of any great teams in the league. We have a fistfull of nice teams, but none even remotely resembling what one would classify as a fantastic ballclub. Any one of 8 NL teams could claim the pennant…..all with virtually the same odds. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this in baseball before.
The Cards aren’t only NL team with momentum.
Yesterday we finished a stretch of 46 consecutive games against teams .500 or better. That ties the 1926 Phillies for the longest such streak in NL history. Also of note, we went 30-16 in those games.
Incredible. 😤 pic.twitter.com/WOlTaroc7W
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) August 20, 2018
Pirates have Taillon and Archer vs Mil this weekend, before the Bucs come to Busch for a 3 game series.
Mil then goes to Cincy for 3 games.
Cincy has Castillo and Bailey this weekend, at Chc, vs Quintana and Kendricks.
Then the Cubs host the Mets for 3, where the Cubs would be due to face Syndergaard, DeGrom and Vargas.
Only 6 teams in history have had a higher winning % in August than the Cardinals this year…
Only 5 weeks remain in the season. Pittsburgh, Washington and San Francisco are on the verge of being eliminated from serious consideration for any playoff Card spot.
Division Leaders:
Chicago 75-53 (4-2 last week)
Atlanta 72-57 (4-3 last week)
Arizona 71-58 (3-2 last week)
Colorado 71-58 (4-2 last week)Wild Card:
St. Louis 72-58 (4-2 last week)
Arizona
Colorado
Milwaukee 72-59 (4-2 last week)Philadelphia 69-60 2.0 GB (1-5 last week)
LAD 69-61 2.5 GB (3-3 last week)
Pittsburgh 64-66 7.5 GB (2-4 last week)
Washington 64-66 7.5 GB (2-4 last week)
SF 64-67 8.0 GB (3-4 last week)The Phillies slid out of either Wild Card spot. The Rockies gained a share of the West division lead with the Diamondbacks. They are both tied with Milwaukee for the 2nd Wild Card. The Cardinals are now in possession of the 1st Wild Card. The Dodgers slipped an additional 0.5 game further back in the Wild Card standings this week. The Pirates and Nationals dropped 1.5 games further behind this week. The Giants dropped 1 game further behind.
For the remainder of the season, the Cardinals play 1 game against the Rockies, 6 games against Pittsburgh, 3 games against the Reds, 3 games against Washington, 3 games against Detroit, 4 games against the Dodgers, 3 games against the Braves, Giants, Brewers and Cubs to close out the season. We currently sit 4 games out of first place in the Central Division.
4 more weeks left.
Division Leaders:
Chicago 80-55 (5-2 last week)
Atlanta 75-60 (3-3 last week)
Arizona 74-62 (3-4 last week)
Los Angeles 74-62 (5-1 last week)Wild Card:
St. Louis 76-60 (4-2 last week)
Milwaukee 76-61 (4-2 last week)Arizona 1.5 GB
LAD 1.5 GB
Colorado 73-62 2.0 GB (2-4 last week)
Philadelphia 72-63 3.0 GB (3-3 last week)The Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Rockies are going down to the wire for the NL West Division. Only a half a game separates all 3 of them. Currently, the Rockies slid to a 1/2 game behind the other 2. All 3 have worse records than the 2 Wild Card leaders. The Cardinals still hold the first Wild Card but the Brewers are only a 1/2 games behind. The Pirates, Nationals and Giants have all dropped further behind or gained no ground this week. Therefore, I am not going to consider them for the playoffs unless they get a great run over the next couple of weeks.
For the remainder of the season, the Cardinals play 3 games against Pittsburgh, 1 game against the Reds, 3 games against Washington, 3 games against Detroit, 4 games against the Dodgers, 3 games against the Braves, Giants, Brewers and Cubs to close out the season. The Cardinals currently sit 4.5 games out of first place in the Central Division.
Wins are at a premium now. Need to take two of three in WAS and sweep in DET. Really needed yesterday to go our way for momentum, but I just hope the Flaherty-Weaver swap pays off today. Chi and Mil get to beat each other up for the next few days, so every W we tally is progress.
Latest odds from @BovadaOfficial for #STLCards with change from 8/1: NL Central from 35/1 to 12/1. NL pennant from 35/1 to 15/2. World Series from 80/1 to 16/1. Matt Carpenter for NL MVP from 40/1 to 3/1.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) September 4, 2018
I could see us losing this series and the one in Atlanta and splitting against LA.
The Dodgers are the team that concern me the most in the WC chase. It would be nice if the cubs could handle the Brewers. I didn’t think the division was a realistic shot unless we add to the roster in August.
The lack of hitting recently and the issues with the back end pen concern me.
This article shows how eight teams could tie for 90 wins atop the NL. Not going to happen, but still interesting to consider how jumbled it could get.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/team-entropy-2018-your-introduction-to-chaos/3 more weeks left.
Division Leaders:
Chicago 83-60 (3-5 since last update)
Atlanta 80-64 (5-4 since last update)
Colorado 79-64 (6-2 since last update)Wild Card:
Milwaukee 83-62 (7-1 since last update)
St. Louis 80-64 (4-4 since last update)LAD 78-66 2.0 GB (4-4 since last update)
Arizona 76-68 4.0 GB (2-6 since last update)
Philadelphia 74-68 5.0 GB (2-5 since last update)The Diamondbacks made a move over the last week + to separate from the Dodgers and Rockies for the NL West Division. The Cardinals still hold a Wild Card but the Brewers now hold the first Wild Card and are ahead by 2.5 games.
For the remainder of the season, the Cardinals play 2 more games against Pittsburgh, 4 games against the Dodgers, 3 games against the Braves, Giants, Brewers and Cubs to close out the season. The Cardinals currently sit 3.5 games out of first place in the Central Division. This is 1 game closer than the last update.
Fortunately Kershaw is not the dominant pitcher he was 3-4 years ago. I like our chances with Gomber on the mound, but hitting concerns me. LA will be our biggest challenge for the 2nd WC spot, so we need at least a split over the next 4 games to keep this from getting beyond our reach. Schildt’s message is our destiny is in our own hands…which is a good approach as we face mostly playoff contenders through Sep.
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