Let's Rebuild the Cardinals

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This topic contains 62 replies, has 24 voices, and was last updated by Avatar 1982 willie 1 week, 1 day ago.

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  • #101173
    ZTR
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    Let’s assume that we are looking at a rebuild after this season.

    On the current roster, who do you keep for the return to glory 3-4 years down the road?

    I’d keep Wong, Hudson, Flaherty, and Ponce.

    I don’t know about Bader or O’Neil but if we’re going in the tank for a couple of seasons why not just give them the job and see what they do with it?

    Who else would still be here in 3-4 years?

    #101176
    ZTR
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    Goldschmidt may be wishing he had signed somewhere else. He’s 31 and probably only has 3-4 good years left.

    #101182
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    gscottar
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    The players I would like to see gone by 2020 (whatever method it takes) are:

    Fowler
    Carp
    Ozuna
    Cecil
    Wacha
    Waino
    JMart

    I would keep everyone else, maybe add a couple of veterans from the outside, and add a lot of young athleticism from Memphis. This team needs to rely on defense and pitching until guys like Montero, Carlson, Gorman, Nunez, and Torres are ready if they ever are.

    • This reply was modified 2 weeks ago by Avatar gscottar.
    • This reply was modified 2 weeks ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #101194
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    RememberDiz
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    I don’t think this will be as easy as building for 2020 or 2021. I don’t see the 28-year-old superstars in waiting on this team. The only young players that interest me at all are Wong, DeJong (if he can learn to avoid striking out), Bader (if he can learn to hit in the short game), possibly O’Neil, and Thomas. Edman and Knizner are possibilities, but they don’t have my hopes that high for their potential.

    I know there is nothing for Carp, Fowler, Cecil, Munoz, and Miller. I’m on the fence about Goldschmidt, but he may be OK. Martinez can be made into a hitter and outfielder if we have coaches. But, I kind of want to see what we have on the farm. I haven’t seen more than a third of a team that is good for three years.

    I am no unhappy with pitching. Some of those guys should sue for non-support. Flaherty allowed one run in two starts with a loss and no decision. When the kid pitchers make mistakes, they don’t get a lot of help from the OF.

    Buckle up. Get rid of the chaff. We have to find something capable of growing, and we need a staff that can build it. I haven’t seen a player show much in the way of improvement. If hitters arrive in the big leagues afraid to step into a pitch, I want better hitting coaches. Good hitting coaches do something about Ks. I’m tired of launch angles. Wonder what Babe Ruth’s launch angle was. Bet the stats would have said, “he’s too fat.”

    #101205
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    forsch31
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    My definite keepers:
    Flaherty
    Knizner
    DeJong
    Goldschmidt

    My 2nd tier:
    Fernandez
    Hudson
    Mikolas (not as important if some MiLBers develop)
    Hicks
    CMartinez
    These guys are only traded for a major upgrade to either the ML team or the minor league system (a top ten prospect)

    There are others like Gant, Edman, Munoz, Thomas, Gallegos that could fill an important spot. However, I don’t see them as must keep.

    In the minor leagues:
    Gorman and Carlson are the only keep unless there is a stupid return players

    Montero/Nunez
    Oviedo/Rondon
    ZThompson/Oviedo/Woodford/Fagalde
    Herrera/Rodriguez
    Torres/Arozarena
    We need to keep at least 1 player from each of the previous parings.

    #101207
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    atripleshyofthecycle
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    Forsch, you are all out on Wong?

    #101211
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    forsch31
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    In 4 years I could see a team as follows:

    C – Knizner, ???
    1B – Goldschmidt
    2B – Edman
    SS – DeJong
    3B – Gorman
    LF – Arozarena
    CF – Bader
    RF – Carlson

    Reserves – Munoz, Montero/Nunez, ????, ????

    SP – Flaherty
    SP – Rondon
    SP – ZThompson
    SP – Oviedo/Woodford/Fagalde
    SP – Mikolas
    RP – Hicks
    RP – Fernandez
    RP – ???
    RP – ???
    RP – ???
    RP – ???
    RP – ???

    That looks like a good start. Although, I would like to see a couple of acquisitions to upgrade a couple of positions. Maybe a SP. Possibly an OF position.

    #101223
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    1982 willie
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    I would keep some of the younger guys like bader, oneil, and edman. I would keep dejong and knizner. if we are gonna try to actually rebuild, I would dangle goldy and wong to see what we could get. I would keep yadi just because I believe in loyalty. fowler, carpenter, Martinez ozuna would be gone. far as pitchers go, definitely keep Flaherty. after that far as starters go, I might keep mikolas. hes pretty consistent. im not sold on Hudson yet but he could be beneficial in getting a great prospect. I would also keep gant, really like him. brebbia is great so I would hang on to him as well. there are some other pretty good guys but im not against trading them if it helps us develop a stronger long term pitching staff.

    #101224
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    forsch31
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    Atripleshy, in 4 years, Wong will be 32. He may be a good fielder but I don’t see him being that valuable at that time. I would hope we could use his salary to upgrade elsewhere.

    #101245
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    CardsFanInChiTown
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    Is Fagalde the real deal? Great numbers, but a little old… hopefully I’m wrong!

    #101248
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    gscottar
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    I think Wong is being undervalued in this discussion. The argument could be made that he is the best position player we have right now when you consider all facets of the game. I would think he should be in our long term plans.

    #101264
    Brian Walton
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    According to the latest SABR Defensive Index for 2019, Wong is MLB’s top defender at second base and fifth across all positions.

    #101271
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    forsch31
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    Wong may be the top fielder at the position but his bat isn’t. If he would be making half of what he is, I would make him a key player for the next 3-4 years. However, I think Edman can be almost as valuable when you figure hitting and salary.

    #101274
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    Onyxgem
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    Wong lots better than Edman so would defiantly keep him at 2b over edman and not even close.

    #101277
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    atripleshyofthecycle
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    I agree that Wong is being underrated. He seems to be improving as a hitter, year by year, in his approach. And his glove is amazing.

    I’m also not sure what Tommy Edman has done to convince anyone that he’s a better offensive player than Wong, unless you just love switch hitters.

    #101280
    stlcard25
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    If the Cards were in for a true rebuild, no one would be safe off the roster IMO. I doubt that would really happen. How many players is the team away from true contention? I think an ace and another bat would do it, although of course they’d need to have some other stuff go right.

    But to play the sell off game, these are the players I’d say are off limits:

    Dejong
    Goldy
    Hudson
    Molina (unless he insists on hanging on past next year at an inflated salary)

    Hard sell on:

    Fowler or Jmart, maybe both
    Cmart sometime in the next year
    Gallegos
    Brebbia
    Gant

    Soft sell if you can move without it being a give away:

    Carpenter
    Wong
    Mikolas
    Miller

    Never ever resign:

    Wacha

    Resign only if he’s going to play elsewhere so you can do the “retirement tour” thing:

    Waino

    Special category of “maybe someone will give you a king’s random for him so explore this”;

    Jack Flaherty

    What would this lineup look like if you traded all the possible tradeable players? Really, really bad. But let’s say you trade everyone in the hard sell category and Flaherty. In return you get 4 top 100 type prospects (2 for Flaherty including a top 20, 1 for Cmart (top 50ish) and 1 from one of the relievers, probably Gallegos) plus a handful of top 200 types and some lotto tickets. That would give the Cards an easy top 5 farm system to build from. Your lineup and rotation look like:

    Wong
    Jmart/Fowler
    Goldy
    O’Neill
    Dejong
    Yadi
    Munoz
    Bader

    Mikolas
    Hudson
    Reyes (you almost have to do this now)
    Ponce/Gomber/Woodford/filler depth for the #4/5 spots

    What’s the ceiling for this team? Maybe 80 wins. The floor is probably low to mid 60s and a top 5 draft pick. Not exciting but it might let the team build for the future.

    #101297
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    gscottar
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    Wong may be the top fielder at the position but his bat isn’t.

    The numbers say that Wong is having one his best offensive seasons in St. Louis, with the possible exception of 2017. He is the best defensive 2B in the NL in my mind. He should be a long term asset.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 6 days ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #101310
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    RememberDiz
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    Wong is being vastly underrated by some on this board. I think Edman is being overrated. Edman started strong as a hitter. But, as they have seen him, he has declined in productivity and increased in Ks. He now 2 of his last 22 and has 8 Ks in his last nine games. His 241 average Wong is hitting 269, tied with Martinez for the team lead, except for the 279 by O’Neil. Wong also leads in SB with 15. Molina and Wong have a lot fewer Ks than the other starting players.

    I don’t know that I see Edman as a starter on a good team. Good reserve.

    #101312
    stlcard25
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    Edman has definitely cooled off but he’s also a rookie and he’s hit and played defense at every level. He’s no guarantee to be as good as Wong, but if you’re looking to shed payroll, he probably gives you similar value over the next 3-4 years at a fraction of the cost.

    #101314
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    forsch31
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    Absolutely none of my posts about Wong are saying to trade him this offseason. His contract for next year is over $10 million and the option for 2021 is over $12 million. He will hit free agency after the 2021 season. At that time, he will have just turned 31. He won’t be looking to take a pay cut and he will be looking for his 1 shot at a good free agent contract. I don’t want to sign him for $13 million or more per year for 4+ years. He would be 35 or more at the end of that contract. He will definitely be slowing down.

    Right now, he is supposed to be in his prime. Following historical patterns, he will not get better from here on out. According to Baseball Reference figures, he has had 1 year in which he was above league average offensively. It is the same according to wRC+

    Looking at Edman, his OPS is .667 after 143 PAs this year. Wong’s OPS after 142 PAs in 2014 (his first full year in the majors) was .667. Wong also had 62 PAs in 2013 and had an OPS of .363.

    All the defensive metrics show Wong as an outstanding defender. However, they all show Edman as a pretty good defender at second, as well. He doesn’t have the range as Wong but he is good.

    If they could get Wong to extend for only 2 more years beyond his current contract at around $12 million per year, I would say do it. Otherwise, you have to let him walk or trade him for a great return.

    #101323
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    atripleshyofthecycle
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    I think that’s fair, Forsch. And we also don’t know that in two years Edman will be our best option. Someone else could rise up and be better. I certainly don’t want them to be in a rush to commit more money to over 30’s.

    #101357
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    thejager
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    If we went full tear down I just don’t think it would help us in any way.

    now if you tear down AND go after Free Agents, that is different. But we don’t really have high end guys ready to go, nor have we the prospect depth coming via several tanking seasons in a row would give us.

    It is a gradual change that the FO is doing:

    out after 2019: Wacha, Waino, Ozuna, Gyorko,
    out after 2020: Wong, Yadi, Cecil, Miller
    out after 2021: Fowler, Carp, CMArt

    seeming internal replacements for:
    2020- Gomber, Ponce, ONeill, Munoz
    2021- Edman, Knizner, Genesis, Helsley
    2022- Carlson, Montero, Woodford/Oviedo

    I think that was/is the plan but it has all sorts of holes:
    2020
    -CMart and Reyes SHOULD have been the replacements in 2020 for Waino and Wacha, but both of them are up in the air now for contribution to the rotation, because of that depending on POnce and Gomber for the rotation is not a good idea so FA will probably have to solve those spots
    -Oneill WAS supposed to be ready to replace Ozuna…he still COULD be big, but it seems like we can’t depend on him for that kind of production yet
    2021
    -Will Yadi really hang it up? IS Knizner ready?
    -Will we pick up Miller’s option because we dont have a second lefty coming, and is Genesis going to work out as at least a second lefty option?
    -Edman may be serviceable as utility or platoon guy, but is he really a starter?
    2022:
    -Carlson may be ready to help Oneill in 2021, but is Montero or Gorman going to be ready to take over the type of production that Carp was supposed to be giving.
    -At this point will we have another rotational piece ready to go if need be?

    My point is that the team and salaries and farm just arent structured to tear down massively to apoint where we would be gaining anything other than the org getting more money for less wins. (if we cut salaries)

    It would require major free agency purchases to fill the holes we woudl be giving, and in that case why go young if you are going to have to invest to compete as we dont have years of prospects coming that are slam dunks.

    The way they are doing it is the way they built, and unfortunately it is built off of depending on certain players to not go into tailspins of performance or injury disasters, which unfortunately we have had multiple times

    Fowler, Carp, CMart, Reyes, Carp, Goldy, Wong all were supposed to be depended on…and almost all have not lived up to what was needed to fill the holes….and now we are left with holes in production through all of them, and while a farm could insulate you from a few problems the extent of the poor performance etc. we have seen makes a rebuild almost impossible without taking a major hit to wins combined with loss of money.

    They just cant afford to rebuild because because it would require eating money and then investing more money in free agency to fill the holes that can’t be filled rapidly by the farm in any substantial way because of the lack of impactful depth.

    #101359
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    thejager
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    Having said all that, I will play the game:

    Anyone not here: trade and/or eat money or DFA to move on from, even if you only gain a little money back or a bad prospect so be it.

    Jack, Hud, Mik, FALHSP, FASP
    Hicks, Miller, Gant, Gallegos, Brebbia, Junior, Ponce, FALHRP
    Randy, DeJong, Goldy, Ozuna, ONeill, Yadi, Wong, FA3b/Edman/Munoz/Sosa
    FA-C, Knizner, Bader, Munoz/Edman/FA3b, Munoz/Edman/FASS

    This route is expensive, but gets us impact players to fill the big holes
    FASP- Strasburg (if he opts out) Cole or Bumgarner next tier
    FALHSP- Alex Wood or Wade Miley
    FALHRP- Watson
    FA3b/SS- Jose Iglesias (DeJong shifts to 3b, Iggy, DeJong, Wong, Goldy, Yadi is the best defensive IF)
    FAC- Austin Romine

    You could also go a much cheaper route
    FASP- use a kid
    FALHSP- Alex Wood or Wade Miley
    FALHRP- Diekman (who i think will not pick up his mutual option) if not commit to Genesis
    FA3b/SS- just use a kid and consider Ravelo or Sosa for the bench
    FAC- use a depth kid or journeyman minor league invite type, if you can get Wieters again go for it

    #101360
    stlcard25
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    I tend to agree, Jager. I don’t think the Cards have it in their DNA to rebuild in a major way. What if they did a bit of retooling instead?

    Now, there is certainly some potentially premium talent available out there. One guy that could possibly be pried away for a big haul would be Francisco Lindor. The Indians might harbor some hopes of keeping him long term but I just can’t see them being able to afford it. He seems like a smaller market kinda guy though so why not the Cards? He’s gonna cost a lot in prospects and will be pricey in monetary value too but both could be worked out.

    My proposal? Jack Flaherty, Dylan Carlson, and Kolten Wong for Lindor and a pitching prospect. That’s a lot of talent but it probably upgrades both teams. Plus Wong’s salary semi balances the scales money wise. Dejong moves to 2B or 3B if Carpenter is done.

    Next, spend money and sign Gerrit Cole. I’m becoming more convinced that he’s about to go on a Scherzer like run that will more than justify a $30M a year deal. There’s your ace.

    If Cmart isn’t going to start then I think you have to consider a trade. If he is, and I think he will…you keep him in the rotation.

    For some salary relief I think you might need to look at a Fowler trade in this case.

    Find some kind of bargain lefty killer. The analytics folks for some teams seem to find ways to do this so I don’t see why they can’t going forward.

    So the lineup:

    Lindor
    Jmart
    Goldy
    O’Neill
    Carp
    Dejong
    Molina
    Bader

    Elite defense up the middle and some solid hitting. Bench is Edman, Knizner, Arozarena, Munoz

    Rotation:

    Cole
    Cmart
    Mikolas
    Hudson
    Gomber/Ponce/Reyes

    Pen: Gallegos, Brebbia, Gant, Miller, Fernandez, Webb, acquisitions.

    Payroll would be pushing $200M I’d think but I also suspect this team would be ultra competitive and a healthy year from a Reyes type from being very good.

    #101361
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    gscottar
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    Stl, I like everything about that except JMart. I am ready to move on from him. I want the best defensive team in all of baseball. Give Arozarena or Thomas a shot at RF or a cheaper veteran like we have talked about before. Carlson isn’t far away.

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