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Carp being #10 on the 2018 MVP is very misleading. He completely tanked the last 1 1/2 to 2 months of the season. That #10 was based only on a very hot streak for a couple of months.
I simply thought that you always started your best players. Edman has 1: Speed, 2: Defense, 3: Good Bat, 4: Versatility, 5: Youth, 6: Switch Hitter.
OTOH Carp has……………..wait…………..wait……….possibly 3. if the stars line up right.
I want to see him earn the right to start not be given it because he is owed a pile of money.Many people understand that rookies can experience a regression in year two, especially when year one was above what his history suggested. Early industry projections for him for 2020 bear that out.
I hate making posts that seem to talk down Edman. He was great last year. But if you expect an .850 OPS from him every season, you could be setting yourself up for disappointment.
Prior to 2019, he never had an OPS above .756 in the minors and his career minors OPS including 2019, is .769.
I want to see him earn the right to start not be given it because he is owed a pile of money.
The FO sees it exactly the opposite way.
The Cardinals aren’t going to sit him on the bench until they have squeezed every ounce out of that contract they can.
Even if its detrimental to the team. Some get it others refuse to.
<Brian wrote: Early industry projections for him for 2020 bear that out.
I hate making posts that seem to talk down Edman. He was great last year. But if you expect an .850 OPS from him every season, you could be setting yourself up for disappointment.>
“Industry projections” – I have to smile at that. As is well known I am not a real stat fan, at least not of what I call ‘new stats’ but I imagine others call them Sabre or something like that. WAR to me is the biggest joke but it seems to be accepted by many as an indication of something or other. One stat I would like to see though is the accuracy of ‘industry projections.’ I say that after watching the clown scribblers spend the entire off season trying to justify their jobs with WAGs (Wild Arse Guesses) and lists of everything from soup to nuts. They sometimes start rumors just to see if anybody is listening.
To be honest I would think that those setting themselves up for Carpenter to improve significantly are the ones who are more likely to be disappointed. But as they say, time will tell and I have been know to ingest more crow than I care mention.
Sorry I was not clear to you, MM3. I was not referring to new stats at all. People with statistical training project upcoming season stats including OPS and I have not seen one yet that has Edman near .850. Every team does it too, though they do not share their work. Are they always accurate? Of course not. Yet I have some sources I trust more than others. I respect poster opinions but projections have a historical base that some fan opinions lack.
The only reason you call Carpenter’s 2018 misleading is that it does not support your negative view of him. He was the best hitter on the 2018 Cardinals. Period. And it was not even close. Look up the numbers.
No one knows what Edman’s OPS is going to be in the future. It could be a .950 as easily as it could be .750.
I think Edman did a good job of adjusting to the other teams adjustments to him. But he was very hot down the stretch and it will be hard for him to duplicate that over a full season. I do believe that he is one that will do better in the major leagues than he has done coming up through the season.
The Cardinals have demonstrated in the off season so far that they are pretty content to stay with the hand they have. Nothing like the whirlwind activity of Whitey Herzog and Walt J.
It will be up to Shildt to manage the overpaid duo of Fowler and Carpenter to not damage the overall performance of the team. He has demonstrated that he is willing to bench them (Fowler in 18 and Carp in 19).
I think we all know that Edman is going to be our “Zobrist”. He may end up playing six different positions and get 400 AB’s but won’t really be labeled as a starter per se.
The Cardinals are going to give Carp and Fowler the benefit of the doubt and start them the majority of the time. Some of it may be based on history but I still believe most of it is due to money.
As for JMart, he is a fine bench bat and DH starter in interleague away games but not much more than that. His $2.125 salary should be nothing for the Cardinals to worry about but since they seem obsessed about keeping payroll around the same as 2019 I would think moving JMart and keeping a less expensive option, which we have several to choose from, would be an idea to strongly consider.
GC said:
No one knows what Edman’s OPS is going to be in the future. It could be a .950 as easily as it could be .750.
Uh, no. To assert that (part in bold), you clearly do not accept the basics of probability.
Okay, lets look at some of Jose Martinez’s stats to see just how bad he is. Since everybody but me says he is horrible on defense (which he is not) I will just concentrate on defense.. He did have a low period last season but so did many others.
Career Stats: 12 games 2016, the rest in 2017, 2018 & 2019.
Games – 398
At Bat – 1156
Hits – 344
Runs – 160
RBI – 172
SB – 7
BA – .298
OBP – .363
OPS – .821Postseason 2019:
13 AB, 7 Hits, 1 Run, 3 RBI, .538 BA, .538 OBP, 1.231 OPSMerry Christmas Jose. Someone believes in you.
I have said before that Jose Martinez’ defense is not as bad as it looks. He looks clumsy but he almost always catches the ball. I don’t remember a game where he committed an error that led to a game lost.
<GameCard wrote: I clearly do not accept that because it is nonsense.>
Which post are you referring to Game Card? My post with all the stats was meant to show how much he has contributed positively to the team.
Steamer projects Carpenter to have a .793 OPS, 110 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR this coming season and Edman at .752, 95 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR. ZIPS are not yet out for the Cardinals.
https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=28&lg=all&players=0
I am not going to say that Edman CAN’T hit at an .850 OPS in 2020 but, looking at his history, I think it is unlikely that he will hit that well in 2020. In almost 1600 plate appearances in the minor, he hit at an .769 OPS. In 2019, he hit almost 100 points higher in OPS than he had in either of his previous 2 years. If I were to bet on an over/under of .825 OPS for him, I would bet under without blinking an eye.
Martinez’ stats over the last 3 years shows a pretty steady decline in his hitting.
2017 – .309/.379/.518/.897
2018 – .305/.364/.457/.821
2019 – .269/.340/.410/.751That concerns me for him going forward.
Well Idk about some steady decline. I mean he was pretty much a starter in 2018 and that was sandwich in between being a role player in 2017 and 2019. Maybe the league has figured him out a bit or maybe he’s better at the plate when he plays more. I mean you really didn’t think he’d OPS near .900 his entire career did you? He hadn’t even played in the majors until he was 27.
It would be a tad foolish to assume Edman just picks up where he left off in 2020. He’s bound to decline a tad as well. Truth be told we don’t know what we’ve got with and that can be said of a couple position players entering year 3 of their professional careers.
I label Edman’s a starter. How is our most productive offensive player not a starter?
I guess it depends on how we define what a starter is. If the season started today my guess each position would be:
OF: O’Neill, Bader, Fowler
IF: Molina, Goldy, Wong, DeJong, CarpDue to slumps and injuries Edman will probably get a lot of starts at many of those positions but does that qualify him as a starter? Like I said it depends on how you define it. I would classify him as a super utility guy who might start 3 or 4 games a week.
Edman is the super sub. It’s obvious to anyone paying attention that it will be his role. I’d also point out that we have seen players like him regress hard in year two over and over and over. Of course I’d love to see him have another great year, but it’s not a given.
On the topic of Jmart…my guess is that no other team is willing to give up anything of value for him, so the Cards just figure holding onto him is the best option. Maybe he hits .280 and pops 10-15 HRs in a pinch hit/DH/spot start role but I couldn’t see him playing enough to do much more than that unless there are a lot of injuries.
I agree stlcard25 that Edman might very well be a super-sub. But only in 2020. And maybe not all of 2020. If someone slumps, gets hurt, etc, he will be in the lineup everyday. I think a lot of this will be determined by two things:
1) What happens to Ozuna
2) Does Carpenter reboundFowler is going to play if he does anything at all.
r/Esteemed Rat
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