- This topic has 34 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 6 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Please read the article first, then by all means share your point of view.
Is a Partial 2020 of Dylan Carlson Worth a Full 2027 Season?
So many factors, and I believe that you covered most all of them. To me, it comes down to whether you think he’s significant enough difference maker in a significant enough season to pull the trigger on bringing him up. The OF is currently not looking great. Tyler O’Neill has looked good, and Fowler has looked OK. Bader looks lost. Thomas hasn’t been given much run. Would Carlson be an upgrade? Long term, definitely. For 2020…I’m not sure.
I also think there’s a 50-50 shot that the season gets shortened. Given that, unless the OF keeps struggling and the team is flagging out of contention, I’d probably hold off on bringing him up. I suspect that’s what the team is going to do unless he’s just tearing the cover off the ball in Springfield.
Brian… this is one of your best pieces IMO. Being the most informed and astute member of TCN you laid out nearly every scenario for us to consider. This season is becoming more up in the air every day and how much credibility will this season have down the road in the minds of baseball people everywhere makes me feel that Carlson and the organization would be better served by having Carlson’s debut be mid-April 2021. Also there’s the question of Carlson’s contribution in 2020 and will it matter.
Scenarios are a huge part of planning the team’s future. Take the rotation…. Mikolas didn’t even make it out of the starting gate and so we have the prime scenario questions of what if… who…. when…. what…. where…. how…. and how much. When does he return… how will this effect his career… where will he fit in going forward…. what if his career is ended, shortened or modified and most importantly who is his immediate replacement? This is for the FO to determine but its always good to hear a most informed person’s questionnaire.
I very much enjoyed taking in this article and hope to see more of this type of writing. There are plans and scenarios for every player in the organization.
I do not think the decision is even a toss up. First, we are only 4 games into the season. Second, who knows if this season will even play out. Then you have the expanded playoffs, which increases the randomness of getting through the post season, if we even get there as a team or as a league.
I would definitely hold Carlson back until next year for his debut. Having a mostly sure bet on a 28-year-old Carlson in 2027 is worth much more than bringing him up this year. And the 28 year old Carlson should be a much better player than the 21 year old, which is another check on the “let’s wait” option.
Let’s get through these next few months and see how this thing plays out. After four games, which leaves a lot of room for error, it looks like O’Neill will be a nice player, and Dex is contributing. The much maligned Dexter Fowler has mostly given the club reasonable production, and bailed us out of the center field snafu last year when Bader was sent down. So while we overpaid for his deal, he is certainly not an all-time bust as some think.
I would go with Thomas in center for a couple of weeks and see if he can bring some offense, keeping Harry around for late game defense. Then assess things at season’s end, with an eye on the youthful DC as an outfielder in ‘21 and beyond.
A week ago it made sense to bring him up in August after the service time issue had expired but now after seeing the Marlins situation I would say it is more of 50/50 tossup. I still think 2020 matters and a championship is a championship but with the likelihood of a cancelled season ever increasing I would have no problem if the Cardinals waited until next year to bring him up.
great article Brian.
could be, barring injuries, Cards keep him down.
However….I guess my take is that the Cards would never let him EVEN GET close to the last year of control, whether that be 2026 or 2027
In about 2024 they will sign him to buy out his arbitration years like they have so many others.
JMO
To the future extension point, I would not assume it will be automatic whenever the team wants. The free agent rules could be different in the next CBA. Also, a potential risk in delaying now is damaging the relationship with the player, who may already feel he belongs in the majors.
Continuing with the example I cited in the article, there have been various rumors in recent years about Kris Bryant turning down extension offers from the Cubs. Maybe the money and years were not right for him, but maybe he is also upset over how service time was used against him. My bottom line reminder is that there are risks with any approach taken.
Of course it will depend on how the player in question feels about it, but the Cards have legitimate reasons for delaying. Tyler O’Neill was a highly rated prospect, who was ranked as high as 30ish at one point IIRC. He could have been PCL MVP in 2018 had he not been called up. Thomas led the system in homers in 2018 and has solid defensive chops. Bader is a bit more of a known commodity at this point…great glove, suspect bat. Then there’s Fowler, who for better or worse will get his at bats for this year at least.
Carlson just doesn’t have an everyday spot yet, until/unless we see O’Neill/Thomas falter or an injury.
No, to answer your question, 37% is not equal to 100%. Edit- I suppose it would be 33% since he misses the first 6 games anyway.
The schedule has 35 games by August 31st, 25 after the deadline. Did we added an outfield bat by the deadline? Were any of Fowler, O’Neill, Thomas and Bader shipped out? I’d let that play out before calling up Carlson, and see if the league is even playing games by then. The first 35 games is not really an extended look at O’Neill and Thomas, especially Thomas, and that’s been the FO stated goal.
But, if we’re contending with 25 games remaining, we didn’t add an OF bat, the OF desperately needs more production, then call him up out of necessity. But I’m in no hurry to start his clock and him see sporadic playing time.
Perfectly written article, BW! Well laid out for both “sides”.
Anyone of us could have one hope, and then an entirely different one a few hours later…
Considering the Marlins current situation, Blue Jays situation, the Governor of Illinois, Mayor of Chicago, (Cubs and White Sox games) makes me feel that the chances of a full season of baseball happening this year is out the window.
I am glad folks found value in the article. If it caused you to think, I accomplished my primary objective.
Brian,I always new the complexity of the game on the field.Your article reveals a new level of complexity to the sport.
Well done.A lot of good points. But I would ask:
1) Is Carlson one of the best outfielders, and would start regularly?
Unless Bader starts hitting, or Thomas proves he can contribute. I would give Thomas a lot of chances to play before any decision. IMO, Carlson is better than Fowler now.
2) Would Carlson benefit from regular playing time in 2020, and would this also make him more ready for 2021?
I think if Carlson can get regular playing time in 2020 for say 2 molnths plus, it will only help him be ready for 2021.
I just think to worry about 2027 is premature. Unless the Cardinals struggle and are out of the playoff picture, which seems unlikely, would be my only reason to not play Carlson at some point.
I also think you cannot worry about this season being cancelled. No one can predict that. And if you wait one month, a decision on the season will become more clear.I don’t think its so much a matter of Bryant being upset as it is Boras wanting to punish the Cubs for not giving him what he wanted. Besides, Boras probably makes more money if he auctions Bryant as opposed to extending him. And for sure, Boras spends more time in the limelight if he is auctioning Bryant as opposed to extending him.
C27,
To your #1 question, if you’ve watched Bader and Fowler, or just look at their batting lines, I think the answer is “He couldn’t be any worse”.
Regarding your #2, getting action at the MLB level and adjusting to the MLB as a whole would help him for 2021. If he comes up and produces even a little better than Fowler and Bader (I laughed as I typed that) then we should know that one OF spot is spoken for in 2021.
If Carlson comes up and proves he can hit, it would take a lot of pressure off in the offseason, then they would only need to find one additional bat in the offseason, if not the pressure might be on the front office to add at least two bats and cause another overpay (see: Fowler, Dexter). At this point, DeJong, Wong and Goldy are the only ones I’d feel confident in saying they definitely have a starting spot next year. If Yadi wants to come back, of course he’s another one.
Putting my article totally aside, anyone hoping that Carlson can magically fix the Cardinals lineup from 1-9, your expectations are far too high. Would it be fair to put that kind of pressure on him in his MLB debut?
Agree. If the Cardinals are going to run with the big dogs, they need O’Neill and Carlson to hit, and they need to acquire Arenado.
Putting my article totally aside, anyone hoping that Carlson can magically fix the Cardinals lineup from 1-9, your expectations are far too high. Would it be fair to put that kind of pressure on him in his MLB debut?
Anyone thinking that he’s an immediate impact player would have to be going on his ST numbers, which were quite good (.919 OPS) and his excellent 2019. Of course, we know prospects don’t always translate that success right off the bat, but if he could do so, adding a .900 OPS guy to the lineup would be a nice change from Fowler (going to be around .750) or Bader (who will be lucky to OPS .700).
As to the second question…no, it would not be fair. But it’s the way most fans treat their prospects in the era of top prospects who come up and light the league on fire, even if those guys are still pretty rare.
If they decide to make a move based on the first five games (which Shildt already said he will not), the first change should be starting Thomas in CF over Bader. I can’t see them benching Fowler at this point for Carlson. So they would need to let CF play out first. If neither Bader nor Thomas hit, then consider bringing in Carlson. (This assumes O’Neill continues to hold his own.)
I wouldn’t expect any call ups before August 5 because that is when the Cardinals return to Busch. It would be easier and perhaps safer for a player to drive up from Springfield than have to fly to Milwaukee or Detroit.
Normally i would say give him a chance this year. i can see where our cheap owner would want to hold off. But if our owner was the kind to pay players what they are worth instead of trying to always get team deals, yea bring him up. But with this season really being in flux, i wouldnt do it. If the cardinals were a player away from being a real contender, it might be worth it but we arent.
With the recent virus outbreak on the club, and the season’s viability lessened, that likely ends any debate about Carlson. Chances have increased that his debut is in 2021.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.