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I don’t think PDJ will even be with the Cardinals on opening day but if he is he will not be starting. The Cardinals usually play payroll politics until the final year of the contract then all bets are off. This is the final guaranteed year of PDJ’s contract so I think everyone knows the gig is about up.
1TD,
PDJ was demoted May 8th, by Mo. At that point Oli doesn’t have to honor the PDJ contract like he MAY HAVE his first five weeks of being a GM.Oli likes to start “who’s hot”. When PDJ returned he earned his playing time with an abbreviated hot streak, but as soon as he cooled off, he rode the pine.
If PDJ makes the active roster, I feel very sure he will have to earn more than “a look”. That’s just an opinion, but one I feel strongly about.
I don’t think PDJ will even be with the Cardinals on opening day
Good to be reminded of that. Opening day is 3 months from now. An eternity.
Report day is a lot sooner, mid February. Some time before then I’d like to discus the Catcher situation. Not who is the starter, obviously. There is Herrera, who will be in his age 27 season when Contreras is in his last season. There is Bernal, who looks good in low A, but how many catching prospects have looked good in low A? I don’t have enough fingers and toes to tell you. There is Knizner, who we can confidently say can’t hit. There are also other guys. What are we going to see this year?
“What are we going to see this year (at catcher)”
BB, What are your expectations for Contreras behind the plate? How many GS?
“Pick only one”: update
1) Hudson 3, Pallante 5
2) Yepez 1, Burleson 7
3) Carlson 3, Nootbaar 5
4) Woodford 4, Thompson 4
5) Donovan 4, Gorman 4jj, I haven’t settled on an expectation yet. I know what Contreras’s year to year stats say, and last year 72 at C and 40 at DH. But the landscape and organizational needs will be different this year. I just don’t know how exactly.
There will be a lot of worthy applicants for DH reps. And there will be Herrera, won’t there? Of will there? He will be 28 when Contreras’s contract is done. Do we dangle him now and see if anyone bites and pivot to Bernal as the catcher of the future wannabe? Do we time share, thereby either sitting Contreras and his contract, or sitting emerging young worthies who need the PAs? Do we time share for a year hoping Herrera’s value builds? I have no idea what to expect.
Mo’s contract expires after 2023, and as far as we know an extension is not in place. That is worthy of some hot stove armchair action too.
Looking back five seasons on Contreras, his prime 26-30 age, he has averaged 102 GS at catcher. Now that is omitting short season 2020. In his early thirties, my expectation is a 100 GS at catcher average for his STL contract.
I’m expecting us to need 62-ish GS from the backup catcher role, yearly. In 2023, Knizner looks like the prime candidate, and I’m fine with that.
I acknowledge that they don’t make catchers like they used to, and 120-130 GS is the current standard for a full load. I also can see that Contreras has never pushed that envelope, so there is no reason to expect him to do so now. But I cannot accept that the plan is Knizner starting 62 games. Mo doesn’t say “Blll, I want to spend $87 Million and still have Knizner in the lineup almost as much as last year.”
Without reseach, I’d guess Knizner to be a top 10 backup catcher next season, for near minimum.
Adding Contreras gives the org much more flexibility in handling their minors catchers development.
Maybe it would make sense to start out that way, with Herrera playing most everyday in Memphis, while the Cardinals sort out the position player roles. There may be a lot of moving parts initially as guys jockey for position, the DH reps will be in demand, and Knizner will not need any of them. Then once its settled, swap in Herrera for Knizner, figuring on playing him at a 162 game pace of 60 at C and 20 or so at DH.
I should clarify that I am not hating on Knizner, but his bat is a black hole and I think eliminating a black hole in the lineup is a priority.
Knizner got good playing time last season and I thought his bat progressed. Take a look at his second half. I like to think he took a step forward. Overachieved and will regress? Who knows.
I did. While his 2H was better than the first, neither was up to snuff.
1H .207/.300/.260/.560
2H .227/.303/.355/.658Despite pretty consistent playing time each month, his performance was all over the place:
April .778 OPS
May .601
June .343
July .666
August .894
Sept .493I didn’t check, but my best recall is that Knizner did a little better than Molina with the bat. I’m wrong a lot, but I was dead wrong in being almost certain that Yadi’s swansong would be one that that would really feature a nice performance. He had a strong tendency throughout his career of amping up his game when it really mattered and I really thought he’d provide quite a few memorable moments and add to his legacy in his last season, but he really tanked. I suppose 19 years behind HP in Big Leagues finally took it’s toll on the old warrior. I also really thought Albert would feature a nice performance and add to his legendary status in his return to StL. but not nearly to the extent that he did…Haha! Oh well, sometimes you’re right and sometime you ain’t.
“Neither was up to snuff”
vs the .mlb avg position player?
vs the mlb avg catcher?
Big difference in the two.
(mlb splits, by position)I decided to compare stats for the guy who backed up Contreras last year with the guy who may back him up this year.
Y Gomes 2022: 293 PA, .235/.260/.365/.625, OPS+ 75
Knizner 2022: 293 PA, .215/.301/.300/.601, OPS+ 75I didn’t know what I would find, and not sure if there is anything to take from it. Pretty much equivalent IMO.
jj, I think the hope had been that Knizner would become Molina’s replacement as the every-day starter. But he didn’t hit well enough to take the job and they signed Contreras long-term. Knizner is probably adequate as a backup but that is short of what many hoped he would become.
Prior to the end of last season I thought there was a decent possibility that Knizner would get his chance in ’23. And not that it means too much, but I just now noticed that the Monkey projections for BR have Andy collecting 365 PA’s in ’23. I’d have to guess that the PA calculation was made prior to signing Contreras because that Monkey’s supposed to be pretty smart…
The FO agrees, BW, and so do I. My concern is the active roster going forward, not what his prospect expectations were.
When we look at what FA catchers are signing for, Knizner as a backup looks top 10 to me. 75 ops+ in 293 PA’s.
Narvaez for 2/15mil? 71 ops+ in 296 PA’s?
Knizner is coming off a better season. Better D.Hedges 1/5mil, 42 ops+ in 338 PA’s?
Zunino 1/6mil, 44 ops+ in 123 PA’s and then has Thoracic outlet surgery?
Barnhardt 1/3.25mil, 64 ops+ in 308 PA’s.
Positional scarcity matters.
I’m not so concerned with how Knizner stacks up as a backup catcher. Like I have said, I’m not hating on him. But besides his adequacy as a backup there are several factors at play.
First, I think Knizner is no longer seen as a prospective future starter, so his development will not be a factor.
Second, I don’t think management wants Knizner’s bat, or any dead spot, in the lineup if it can be helped
Third, I don’t think the Cardinals are inclined to have one of their big contract middle of the order hitters sitting on the bench very much. They will want as close to 600 PAs as possible.
Fourth, the roster is packed with guys who can play, or probably can play, at this level. They need PAs, so DH opportunities for Contreras will be limited. So a lot of his PAs will come as starting catcher.
Fifth, there is Herrera, and how will his development be addressed? AAA, time share with a money guy (problematic concept), or will he be moved as part of a pivot to Bernal or Mr. X?
600 PA’s from Contreras or any catcher/DH is a very aggressive expectation. High 400’s like the last two seasons seems to be his norm.
I’m sure the Cubs would have liked 600 PA’s from him too.
Yeah, Contreras is receiving a pretty nice pay-scale beginning this season. Looks like he appeared in 72 games as a C in ’22. I’d say ’23 will be deja vu all over again, so to speak, as he can expect a season more in line with the 116 games in which he appeared behind HP with the Cubs in ’21, with Yepez, Gorman and at times even Goldy and Nado filling the DH slot. He’s getting paid a lot of money, so the Cardinals aren’t going slate him for too many games in which he takes a few rips and then watches the rest of the game from the dugout.
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