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Albert, my reasoning – aside from having watched lots of Baker on tv and live – is that in limited off and on starts last season, Baker had an OPS of .627 in St Louis. Goldy is at .608 following his hot streak lately.
Baker got off to a slow start in Memphis this year, much like so many Cardinal hitters did. But his OPS in May is over 1.000. There is no reason to think he is any less a hitter now than he has been. I wonder if Burleson’s success which came with a lot of regular PAs in the bigs might affect what kind of further chance Baker gets. Mo must still be wary of giving up on a guy who has success after a longer look somewhere else. Of course, it depends on what happens with Goldschmidt and which way the Cardinals go with that situation. It seems like it would make sense to get a longer look at Baker before a decision needs to be made.
Goldy is starting to heat up at the plate so we will see how it goes but if he gets moved a Burly/Baker platoon at 1B might be interesting.
Not sure if this has been discussed but it looks like Chase Davis might be a bust. So far he has lived up to his name with a high strikeout rate, but not much power.
Some guys struggle adjusting to wood bats. There was a guy from this area – terrific athlete and got a full ride offer to Texas to play football. But the Orioles signed him for a $1 million bonus and he chose baseball – his name is Darnell McDonald. He struggled adapting to wood bat leagues, but did eventually make it to the majors and had some success, but nothing like predicted.
Fangraphs released their top 100 prospects yesterday. Eric as typical has some deviations from other prospect sites as he doesn’t keep up with other rankings and does his own scouting with some discussions from teams.
32. Quinn Mathews
63. JJ Wetherholt
64. Tink Hence
77. Jimmy CrooksThe surprise is Wetherholt being at #63. Eric has dropped his evalutation of Wetherholt’s hit tool from 60 to 50, power from 55 to 50, fielding from 50 to 45, but his arm increasing from 40 to 50 and run from 45 to 50 with him being projected as SS instead of 2B (and thus higher defensive expectations). I appreciate Eric being different, but I definitely am surprised by the hit tool drop. I think Blake did a great job in the TCN writeup for Wetherholt showing good data that points at Wetherholt having the potential of a great hit tool, so it is surprising to see the difference. Eric does still projects Wetherholt as an average big league starting SS so the ranking isn’t like he is completely out for Eric.
Just yesterday, I posted an article comparing and contrasting seven national top 100s for 2025, including Fangraphs. They were the least optimistic about JJ by far.
From a chat with Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs today, it looks like the Cardinals will have another top 100 prospect when the new list drops. Rainiel will be the addition.
12:25
Mateo: Raniel promoted to low A – is this the most electric bat through the org since Oscar Taveras?12:26
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s freaking awesome. Not projectable at all, he’s bordering on bulky already. Bu holy cow can he play. I had so much fun watching him last week. I’ll try to get video up asap, like tonight or tomorrow, so you guys can see.12:26
Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely a top 100 addition when I get to the Cards list here shortly (next week or two)Hoping to see that video soon. I did tune in to the game for Palm Beach earlier and watched Rainiel get a single. He has really quick hands and he thick. He looks like a power hitter for sure.
Eric also had a question about complex players and indicated Padilla has really good raw power potential. That is exciting to see and hopefully Padilla can grow into that and start turning it into game power. It is not surprising for a not yet even 18 year old though to be much more raw as power is one of the later tools to actualize.
12:27
Fred whitfield: any New names poppping up in the complex leagues?12:30
Eric A Longenhagen: Yairo Padilla is really physical. He’s unpolished in all facets but is going to have rare raw power for a shortstop (if he can stay there)I know Fangraphs is really slow to get their lists out, but I do appreciate their unique take on prospects (typically more realistic). Eric basically is a 1 man show with a rotating group of help for a month or 2 at a time before the help gets hired. He does scout over 1000 players a year and write them up. Teams and other publications are doing this with staffs so I don’t hold it against him for being slow to roll them all out.
Well as of July 1st, Fangraphs has finally posted their top prospects list. The system as with 5 guys in the top 105. Rainiel is at 65 and Hence the 105 and then solid depth and some upside guys like Padilla. Lin, and some lower level pitchers whose stuff and physical projections make them really risky but higher potential impact guys.
First time I’ve seen Doyle ahead of JJ. Six in Top 100 is very good.
But Mathews, Crooks and Hence are all down from their pre-season rankings. Doyle and Rodriguez are new. Wetherholt improved.
13. Liam Doyle
23. JJ Wetherholt
46. Rainiel Rodriguez
76. Quinn Mathews
81. Jimmy Crooks
89. Tink HencePre-Deadline Top 100 Prospects Update https://t.co/JrW7EXLmFU
— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) July 29, 2025
Eric is very high on Doyle and had him as his #1 draft prospect this year. He loves the fastball and thinks the splitter is also a plus pitch.
If you use Fangraphs Farm System rankings where they assign a $ value for certain FV tiers, the Cardinals are up to the 6th best farm system in baseball valued at $249 million. Eric really likes some of the Cards guys at the top and has the team with 6 top 100 prospects. He was kind of low on most of the traded for guys, but the Cards are now up to 51 players he deems as 35+ FV.
The NL Central is coming in hot with the Brewers at #4, the Reds #7, and the Pirates #8. The Cubs are down at 22.
I wasn’t sure where to post this….. But I just noticed that the Cardinals have 3 18 year olds, 1 20 year old, and 2 21 year olds listed in their Top 10. Of the remaining players listed in the Cardinals Top 30 all are grown ups, except for Deniel Ortiz, 20 years old and ranked at No.24 and Kenly Hunter, 17 years old and ranked at No.30. And then there’s Tanner Franklin and Jake Gurevitch. Both are 21 years old and no doubt have a drivers license to prove it. They both just turned 21 a few weeks ago and should be mentioned, also, IMO.
mud, I’m assuming you are referencing MLB pipeline’s updated list.
When results are gloomy you can always project some teenagers.
Ha Bling always with the negative take. Did you look around the league at any other teams Bling? It is normal for young player with more tools to be higher rated even if raw as they have more potential. The Brewers farm system must be horrible if their top 2 prospects are 18 year olds who just got sent to A ball. Except they have a consensus top 5 farm because of the potential of those guys as Made is #5 overall and Pena is #16 overall.
jnevel posted this four days ago on the Prospect voting thread.
It is interesting that Fangraphs rated the Cardinals as having the #1 farm system. It’s not by a lot. And part of that is St Louis not graduating many prospects lately while adding several via the mid-season trades. It also comes from the excellent play of Wetherholt, Doyle falling to the Cardinals in the draft, and Raniel Rodriguez and Deniel Ortiz coming out of nowhere – especially Rodriguez who had an incredible season at 18 years of age. It also helps that Josh Baez came back from nearly dead. Plus great seasons from Henderson and Mautz.
I agree there have been a lot of big improvements. We are still light on the position player side.
mudville added this today on the Marmol thread:
Couldn’t figure out where else to post this, so here it is in the Oli Marmol thread.
Fan Graphs has just ranked the Cardinals farm system as the
#1 system in all of baseball. Obviously, this didn’t happen overnight. So kudos to the DeWitts, John Mozeliak, and Oli Marmol. Mo, of course, has left. But he has left us with the top farm system in the game. Thank you.I posted this in response to jnevel.
Very different methodology by Fangraphs. Assign $ to Future Values and total them up for all prospects.
So, the set $ values for each FV is crucial. For example, between a 50 FV and a 45+ FV, which is razor thin, the $ value of a hitter is $28 MM vs. only $8 MM. That is a huge difference.
Still, I like the formulaic approach. Even if I am not sure about the FV $, they are the same for every organization.
Right behind StL are PIT and MIL.
FG seems to grade differently than BA and MLB Pipeline. We will have to see how the other national entities rank the Cardinals this off-season.
Here are a couple of other recent data points:
Post-draft, BA had the Cardinals 14th.
Last month, ESPN had the Cardinals 9th.A year ago at this time, Fangraphs had the Cards 19th. This is a huge jump in 12 months.
FWIW, when I cover the consensus ratings each spring, I show the individual rankings and average them. This spring, the Cards were 18th in an average of six national raters. Their rankings ranged from 14th to 21st.
It is great to see improvement, but I will be surprised if others rank the Cardinals first.
I’ll be surprised if they get another #1 ranking too although I admit I know very little about depth in other organizations. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Cardinals get almost all top 10’s.
The only thing that I can think of that could keep the Cardinals from racking up another #1 ranking is the lack of another prospect with true top of rotation potential, although Hence and Hjerpe get one more chance to take themselves out of the running for top of rotation, IMO.
You are on a good point with the pitchers. Though Hjerpe hasn’t made a Top 100 to my knowledge, Hence and Mathews remain on FG’s list while they have dropped off many others (BA, MLB, Athletic, etc.).
Hence, like Alex Reyes and Carlos Martinez, among others before him will get hitters out at the big league level. The question will be…is his arm going to fall off first? I see the argument for him as a top 100 prospect (his result are always good) or a total nothing burger (he’s always hurt). I kind of want the Cards to just throw him in the big league bullpen next year to get the benefit at the major league level rather than have him dominate at AA or AAA for half a season and then get hurt.
Wetherholt will probably be graduating out of the prospect lists at some point in 2026. That will hurt us in the rankings unless some other prospects make a big move. Of course having your prospects graduate to the big league club is a good thing so I am not complaining.
Fangraphs has their Cardinals prospect list up. They have 53 guys who are viewed as 35+ and they note the team has a lot of depth. From the current team lists released, the Cardinals are #2 in value behind Milwaukee although note this is still being updated as new team lists drop.
Ledbetter seems like a throw in at 46.
Here’s a review by a Tampa writer, which may be a bit optimistic. He was a 2nd round pick
2025 Draysbay Community Prospect Review: Colton Ledbetter | DRaysBay https://share.google/SPEMKLA9uTUbNIn4P
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