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Hoyer tearing it down. Rebuild!
THE WINDOW HAS CLOSED
My guess is that will do a one year re-tool then ramp up the spending again next winter. This will not be like the complete tear down they did 10 years ago where they were very bad for several years.
Next winter could be interesting if the Cardinals and Cubs are both spending big at the same time. Don’t forget that the Cubs have the capability and willingness to throw a $200M payroll on the field when they want to.
Makes one wonder if there will be any bargains next winter based on the rumors of so many more teams planning to spend then vs. now…
stlcard25 said:
This is the Cubs giving up, to be clear. It makes about as much sense as Dewitt crying poor, but it is what it is.
To that very point, I tweeted the following last night. Cubs owner Ricketts is the source of the “biblical losses” quote. He was also quoted less than month ago as saying the Cubs are not tearing down anything. Seems to me he is playing word games…
Translating 2020 MLB owner-speak:
"Biblical losses" = selloff coming.
"Not very profitable" = down payroll.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 29, 2020
Who in the NLC is going to be better than them?
The Cardinals, for sure. Probably the Reds. Maybe the Brewers. That Cub rotation is going to awful. If you ranked out all the starters in the division, where would the Cubs starters rank? To me, probably no one but Hendricks in the top 10, Davies doesn’t do it for me.
2 Flaherty
6 Kim
14 Waino*
9 CMart
10 Mikolas5 Hendricks
12 Davies
15 Lester*
21 Alzolay
25 Mills1 Castillo
3 Gray
11 Mahle
18 Miley
20 Desclafani*4 Woodruff
7 Burnes
17 Anderson
22 Houser
24 Lindblom16 Williams
23 Kuhl
19 Brault
13 Musgrove
8 KellerNext winter could be interesting if the Cardinals and Cubs are both spending big at the same time. Don’t forget that the Cubs have the capability and willingness to throw a $200M payroll on the field when they want to.
The difference is that the Cards should be plugging up small roster holes with their money, while the Cubs will be losing key players that they’ll have to replace such as Bryant, Rizzo and Baez with Contreras coming a year later. Some of those guys are candidates to resign, but they would be spending money to do that.
The Cards have a general framework already in place of usable players, including a rotation. Maybe they have $60-70M to play with next year while the Cubs have $80-100M but the Cubs will have holes at C, 1B, SS, 3B and P to fill. The Cards probably won’t need to sign a pitcher and maybe will only have to fill an OF spot and 3B/SS/2B or C.
As of now I would have the Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, and Reds bunched up within a few games of each other with the Pirates bringing up the rear. I don’t see a lot of separation though when examining the entire rosters.
I see no reason to be so optimistic about the Brewers.
And the Reds lost a LOT of pitching. Bauer almost certainly isn’t coming back. DeSclafani already signed elsewhere. Gray is rumored to be on the trade block as is Castillo. Their best setup man left as a free agent (Bradley) and they traded away their closer (Iglesias).
With all of those pitchers on their roster, the 2020 Reds finished just one game ahead of the COVID Cardinals.
I cannot objectively see those two teams (CIN and StL) on the same plane in 2021.
P.S. Just a week ago, you wrote the following on the Reds thread, which I agree with 100%. What changed since then?
“They (the Reds) went big for 2020, crapped out, and are now cashing in all of their chips. They are going to be competing against the Pirates this year for last.”
Craig Edwards of Fangraphs is sparing no words in his criticism of the Cubs’ plan…
When you own a $3B team plus billions more in a tv network/land by the stadium, a billion in debt isn't a financial crisis, it's a business plan.
Ricketts used the Cubs as an ATM to try and make more billions. They'll likely succeed. What they're doing to the team is inexcusable.— Craig Edwards (@craigjedwards) December 29, 2020
Is it possible Theo Epstein wanted to give it one more shot for a ring in 2021, and Rickets decided he wasn’t the right guy for a slash and burn fire sale? If so, maybe the CHC aren’t done dumping salaries this winter.
Also, I’m not convinced the CHC are sending cash with Darvish. The CHC player package received is about right as is.
I personally think the division plays out like this:
Cards 85-77
Reds 81-81
Cubs 78-84
Brewers 77-85
Pirates 63-99Well, here is Nightengale’s report.
Chicago will pick up a “minor portion” of the $59 million that remains on the six-year, $126 million deal Darvish signed in 2018.
25, if the Reds can go .500 with as much as 4/5 of their 2020 rotation gone (2/5 gone for sure), and their two best relievers lost on top of it, I would consider it miraculous.
jj, maybe the details will come out later on how Theo left. But whether he bailed on his own or Ricketts pushed him out, the end result is the same – he isn’t the guy to rebuild the Cubs.
From ESPN.
What should the Cubs do from here after trading away Yu Darvish?
Doolittle: Fold. … Seriously, though, you know which team has had the best offseason in the NL Central? The Brewers, and only because they haven’t yet traded Josh Hader. The Cubs should have, at the very least, stood pat this winter in hopes of building trade value with some of their hitters who had bad seasons. But if they aren’t going to try, then trading away everyone else for pennies makes for a logical progression.
Rogers: Calculate when is the right time to move Craig Kimbrel and Kris Bryant. Either now or at the July deadline. Then, come this spring they need to sign Javy Baez to a long-term deal and build around him while Anthony Rizzo should get a new contract in July, after a solid first half of the season. Those moves could absolutely get the Cubs contending for the division again as soon as 2022.
Schoenfield: The player who would bring the most back in value at this point is Kyle Hendricks since he’s signed through 2023 (with a 2024 option) at a reasonable rate, but I don’t expect a complete reboot here, not when the rest of the division is so weak. It might take only 79 wins to win the Central and you can do that with Hendricks, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant.
P.S. Just a week ago, you wrote the following on the Reds thread, which I agree with 100%. What changed since then?
“They (the Reds) went big for 2020, crapped out, and are now cashing in all of their chips. They are going to be competing against the Pirates this year for last.”
It just seems that each day the NLC gets worse and worse. It is literally a race to the bottom.
25, if the Reds can go .500 with as much as 4/5 of their 2020 rotation gone (2/5 gone for sure), and their two best relievers lost on top of it, I would consider it miraculous.
I don’t think they’ll trade Gray or Castillo, or at least there’s not good reason to. I also think the offense underachieved and will be better. I think they had 90 win talent this past year and just underperformed.
The Cardinal front office has to be deliriously happy right now. They could not spend another cent and still be the favorite in the NLC. It is a dream come true for them.
By the way, when you hear a GM/PBO state “we don’t pay attention to what our division opponents are doing” don’t believe it. They do.
You had better believe they are paying attention! They would be idiots not to.
What most of them seem to say is that they don’t take action based on what other teams do. Maybe so, but they may be taking “inaction” as a result.
I have a feeling that Kris Bryant is gone this off-season as well. The Nats make sense.
Given the Cards positioning, they’d be nuts not to resign Waino and Yadi and at least look for some batting help at 3B or the OF. Even someone like Rosario or Franco would probably put this team as the major major favorite to win the Central. Would they really be that strict with the budget?
25 said:
I don’t think they’ll trade Gray or Castillo, or at least there’s not good reason to. I also think the offense underachieved and will be better. I think they had 90 win talent this past year and just underperformed.
The reason to trade further is to reduce more salary, which is their clear plan this winter.
Forget all the other pitching losses. Bauer is a Cy Young winner. Would we be so optimistic about the Cards if they traded Flaherty for prospects only (who isn’t yet the pitcher Bauer is)?
On the Reds talent level in 2020, BBRef had their Pythag W-L at 30-30. ZiPS projected them at 31-29, which is exactly how they finished.
You are entitled to your view, of course, however, I respectfully but wholeheartedly disagree. Unless their course changes, the 2021 Reds are quickly heading South.
Now is the time for the Cardinals to make moves. Less competition. Higher supply than demand. Take the risk.
I have a feeling that Kris Bryant is gone this off-season as well. The Nats make sense.
Given the Cards positioning, they’d be nuts not to resign Waino and Yadi and at least look for some batting help at 3B or the OF. Even someone like Rosario or Franco would probably put this team as the major major favorite to win the Central. Would they really be that strict with the budget?
I agree on all accounts. Bryant could go to the Nats, Mets, or Dodgers. They will probably keep Baez and Rizzo though.
If the Cards sign Waino, Yadi, and one mid-level bat they would have to be the favorite for the division.
And it continues…
The Chicago #Cubs, after trading Yu Darvish and non-tendering Kyle Schwarber, are now extensively shopping catcher Willson Contreras. Contreras is projected to earn at least $5 million and perhaps as much as $7.4 million in salary arbitration, per @mlbtraderumors
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 29, 2020
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