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Contreras is currently a 118 ops+ bat, and a career 115 ops+.
How would you feel about flipping him for 118/115 ERA+ pitcher with a similar salary structure?
Berrios, Burnes, Kikuchi, Strider and Wheeler are all 118-115 this season. Just ballparking here. Maybe one team needs to add player value, but salaries are similar.
I dont’ agree we need to pay down heavily on Willson because his bat plays, especially at DH.
I think Willson would be a perfectly fine DH while also getting a few reps at 1B. The problem is that the Cardinals didn’t give him a $87.5M contract to be DH but it is too late to worry about that. We did it. Marmol also likes to rotate the DH spot around several players instead of one but that is too bad. We created this mess so we will have to live with it. I would rather keep him and use him as DH than trade him for a crappy pitcher. We already have enough of those.
I would rather keep him and use him as DH than trade him for a crappy pitcher
There is a school of thought that we would not even need the crappy pitcher. Just trade him along with his contract, and use the freed up payroll on pitching.
Well there wouldn’t be any freed up payroll if you have to take another bad contract in return, which was one of the original arguments. So if there is a team out there willing to take the Contreras contract without sending us a bad one back then yes sign me up for that.
I disagree that Willson would bring a crappy pitcher in return. A 114 career ops+ at about 18mil aav, in an equal value trade, should bring a 114 era+ at 18mil per.
Mikolas as a Cardinal is a 112 era+, Wainwright a career 114. A buyer looking to beef up there lineup should consider a career 114 ops+ DH that can backfill at catcher.
Moving Willson is much more diserable than Noot, Donovan, Gorman, etc.
That’s a fair question BB. Knizner isn’t all that good at controlling the running game. Herrera is average. This is the one area in which Contreras excels at due to his arm.
However, in the end, even with doing a somewhat poor job of controlling the running game, Knizner’s ERA for pitchers is around a run better than Contreras’.
JJ – I usually agree with your well thought out assessments. But I’m not with you this time on Contreras being able to net us a Mikolas level pitcher. I think your logic works if Contreras weren’t a 34 year old mostly DH. Teams can find cheaper DH’s that can hit at his level. Or, many teams have a similar approach to the Cards where they rotate their DH. Thus, Contreras may be an underwater sunk cost. I think we’d have to pay most of his contract to play elsewhere to get a Mikolas level return which we’d pay for too.
I didn’t verify these stats, but Contreras’ offensive and defensive numbers caught my eye… My feeling is that once a guy gets a bad rap, it is very hard to shake it.
Since July 1st, Willson Contreras has hit
.400/.505/.688/1.193 with 32 hits, 8 doubles, 5 home runs, and 18 RBI’s in 80 at-bats.He is also playing a very solid catcher. He currently has 2.4 bWAR and is 5th in CS% in the National League. #STLCards pic.twitter.com/PQi31OQ6Ox
— Cards Convo ™ (@CardinalsConvo) August 14, 2023
He seems to be settling in very nicely.
Hopefully the kinks are worked out and 2024 starts out smoothly.
He for sure will have some new pitchers to break in next year that Molina did not catch….
I think several factors have contributed to the Contreras issue.
1. All of our major pitching staff that we were relying on bailed and played in the WBC. Contreras did not in hopes that he could get time with said pitchers. This cost valuable familiarity time between the battery.
2. Contreras (and for that matter no one) is or ever will be Yadi.
3. Contreras was a Cub and our recent track record for “used” Cubs has not been very good.
4. Front office needed a scapegoat when the pitching staff bombed and Contreras was the easy candidate because he was the “new” ingredient in the battery.
I welcome your replies Jnevel, especially when we are in different camps. Those differing opinions give me reason to dig deeper into my reasoning.
Possibly there is a happy medium between our difference of opinions.
In my view #4 of TN’s comment is a precise illustration and glaring example of the nature and character of the group of people that currently make up Cardinal leadership and that character could very well be termed not only excessively self centered, but also cowardly and entirely without the ability to offer up an acknowlegement of their own shortcomings. And no one can convince me that what they did to Willson Contreras wasn’t noticed by players, managers and coaches around the entire league and will serve to contribute to a reputation that places the Cardinals in a category with the heading of a team to be avoided.
Offer up Contreras along with some of our “prospects” who will never see significant play in St. Louis such as Yepez, Gomez, Connor Thomas to a team like the Angels with a big payroll but lousy farm and maybe we can get a deal and clear out some driftwood from the farm.
Edit: It was my intention that this offer would basically be for nothing in return other than ridding ourselves of Willson’s deal.
I would be surprised if the Front Office were to move Contreras this offseason. I think the Cardinals realize they were not as well prepared as they may have thought they were as they entered the regular season for the reasons cited above. They club needs to add talent to the staff, as well as revise and firm up their plan for pre-game prep and game management before spring training. Then use spring training to get pitchers, catchers and coaches on the same page. This will help all immensely.
I still contend that Contreras has not been the sole issue with pitching performance.
Just happened to s this:
@GMGirsch
Contreras has done nothing but work his ass off all year for this organization. He had so much immense pressure coming into the season from everyone. Now he’s putting together a very productive season. #STLCards“While appearing on 101 ESPN’s “The Fast Lane”, Brad Thompson, a former Cardinal and current color commentator for Cardinals games on Bally Sports Midwest, talked about Contreras’ future behind the plate for the Cardinals, and believed that the club would ask him to become a corner outfielder and designated hitter going forward while possibly catching a few games here or there.
While Thompson made it clear that he doesn’t have inside information on the topic, he is close with the organization and is right when he says the club has made it sound like they will open up this conversation again. Back in July, John Mozeliak said the organization would handle who is the everyday catcher in 2024 during the offseason.”
I noticed this on Redbird Rants yesterday. I am not concerned too much with what Thompson thinks, although I admit he is around insiders enough to have a feel. The thing that stood out was the part I bolded, and which I had forgotten about. Mo did say that. A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then, but he has so far not said otherwise. I kind of doubt Thompson would have said what he did without cause, but of course that doesn’t mean he’s right.
I didn’t hear the segment on the radio and the RR article doesn’t say what Thompson thinks they would do about an everyday catcher.
The Yankees had the fifth worst OPS in MLB this year at .702. They have roughly $80 million coming off the books.
These are the OPS’ they got from the DH & Catcher positions:
– Willie Calhoun (DH) – .712 OPS
– Giancarlo Stanton (DH) – .695 OPS
– Kyle Higashioka (C) – .686 OPS
– Austin Wells (C) – .668 OPS
– Jose Trevino (C) – .570 OPS
– Ben Rortvedt (C) – .461 OPSIt was rumored the Yankees were interested in trading Clarke Schmidt for Dylan Carlson.
Rather than the Cardinals using Contreras as an $18 million DH, they should package Carlson & Contreras for Schmidt + prospects + $18 million in savings that they can use on pitching.
Yes, but then that creates the problem of needing an everyday catcher. We could:
1) go with proven but marginal Knizner, or
2) go with unproven Herrera with a marginal plan B if he doesn’t work out, or
3) go get somebody and face the new catcher from outside the org situation again.Or you could go with a combination of options 1 & 2 and have Knizner & Herrera split the time. Combined, they are making $1.8 million.
Contreras is making $18 million.
LA, I agree that is another possibility. I am uneasy about a bargain catcher option, but yeah, I could see that. I am having some amount of trouble understanding just what it is the Cardinals might think they did not get from Contreras that they were expecting to get. It would be a mea maxima culpa for Mo.
Mo would not have to admit a mea culpa if he traded for the right assets. Such as starting pitching, multiple relievers that are better than what we currently have, or prospects.
In any of those situations, he turned one year $10 million/2.4 fWAR into assets for the club going forward.
Another factor to consider is that if the Cardinals approach Contreras about his willingness to accept a trade, they are almost surely going to have to follow through, because it is akin to telling him, “We don’t want you any more.”.
Contreras may also want to be bought out of his no-trade protection, but that is an inhibitor, probably not a show-stopper.
(Same considerations with Goldy and Arenado, subjects I suspect will get over hyped ad nauseum again this winter.)
Thinking about Contreras differently than Godschmidt and Arenado requires a reason that would resonate with the FO. All big contracts. Willson led the team in OPS+ and OPS and was solidly in the top handful in other offensive catagories. He also answered the bell, or was willing to, despite taking a beating. So what would the reason be for not having him in the same unthinkable to trade catagory?
He was known to be an offense first catcher, and seems to be as advertised. There was catchergate early in the season. Undoubtedly there was trouble getting him integrated, especially with pitchers who weren’t at ST and with a new pitching coach. I don’t really have a feel for whether that is seen as an ongoing and unfixable issue. I will mention that he had a role behind the plate on a WS winning team.
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