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Has anyone noticed that Wilson Contreras has been on fire?
Here’s his production since July 1st –BA – .384 (5th in MLB)
OBP – – .483 (1st)
OPS – 1.127 (4th)
Hits – 45 (tied for 3rd)
Doubles – 14 (tied for 1st)He, Goldy, Arenado, O’Neill, Gorman, and Walker make up a heck of a MOTO. 6 big bats in row.
In general I like Contreras. Good bat, seems to have a lot of passion.
But out of those six bats, only Goldy and Arenado have shown consistency in their careers. Contreras has been okay. O’Neill has had one terrific season and that’s about it. The other two are young and to date are more potential than production. But I do like both guys and think they will be very good.
O’Neill has been bad for a while. Goldy is slowing down. For both Gorman and Walker is a little early to say but they do look legit. Contreras is a little above avg hitter. Time will tell and Donovan and Nootbaar add lefty hitters
Small samples?
Kiz since July 1,
.356 / .356 / .644 / 1.000 (.375 BAbip),
and he didn’t need a .500 BAbip (willson) to do it.Willson is a DH with an above avg bat, Kiz is a catcher.
I’d really like to see Herrera as the starting catcher going forward. Wish they could work a deal to trade Contreras. Maybe eat part of his contract if they have to.
Herrera and Baker are owning AAA pitching. I don’t see why we shouldn’t give them regular reps in STL instead of looking at guys we already know about.
The Cardinals have a conundrum with Contreras. Do they eat some money and try to move him this winter? If they keep him he really needs to primarily be a DH and backup 1B. I think Knizner and Herrera can handle all of the catching duties which should help the pitching staff. It will be interesting to see what happens.
I would try to trade him and eat some of the money. But it will not happen. He was the prize signing for 2023. Like with Marmol I don’t think Mo is ready to do a mea culpa.
Maybe by next spring none of the pitchers who have had problems with Contreras will be left. Problem solved.
It took a year for Goldschmidt to settle in with the Cardinals. It’s possible that Contreras is a lot better than what we’ve been getting so far this year. I would say, though, that in my opinion, Knizner has the look and the vibe of a honest to goodness major league catcher now that he is no longer living under the shadow of Yadi.
Mo said he would re-visit Contreras over the winter. As BC showed, he’s been extremely productive the last 5/6 weeks, which should make it easier to move him.
His contract was backloaded so eating some salary is a legit option.
Finding a similar salaried pitcher in trade would be an ideal approach, which is easier said than done, but, there are a bazillion pitcher contracts out there.
Contreras contract is already in the budget, and at about 18mil AAV going forward, a pitcher flip would acquire one of the many pitchers needed.
We’re ok at catcher, even if Willson is traded away.
Had we been as bad last year as this, we probably would not have brought Willson on board. But thinking we would be around a 90 win team, it made some sense to replace Yadi with a vet.
Now that we are in a partial rebuild, moving Contreras would be desirable if we can find a team in a situation we were in last off season.
Now that we are in a partial rebuild, moving Contreras would be desirable if we can find a team in a situation we were in last off season.
Contreras no longer is a good fit for the team…. if he ever was. Give him the old heave-ho and then lick your wounds.
Good point. The thinner the catching free agent pool is this coming off-season, the more appealing he could be in trade.
If Contreras keeps hitting at or better than his career norm, he shouldn’t have to carry a lot of salary with him, which one has to assume the Cards would prefer (if they decide to trade him at all).
While the complaints about his defense from the pitchers and how the organization handled it put everyone in a bad light, there is nothing new about Contreras as an offense-oriented catcher. He is the same as he has always been.
If my eyes didn’t deceive me during last night’s (Friday) game against the Royals there was a pitch from one of the Cardinal pitchers that Contreras completely missed that hit him square in the face mask. I am not sure I have ever seen one quite like that. I suppose it is possible he got crossed up but if not that was incredibly embarrassing. He often stabs at the ball. He just isn’t a good defensive catcher.
If I were an owner I wouldn’t like eating money either. Who wants to pay a player to play for another team? But they might have to cut their losses and move him out. On the flip side he can do some damage with the bat. If they do keep him he should be a full time DH and backup 1B. If Goldy doesn’t come back in 2025 perhaps Contreras could take over there. It would be a step down defensively but the reality is we owe him $18M per year for the next four seasons after this one with an option on the fifth year.
Who wants to pay a player to play for another team?
It is preferable not to, but if you want to win, sometimes you have to do what is best for the team.
The Cardinals publicly scapegoated Contreras, they need to do what’s best for the team.
On the other hand, a bunch of pitchers that were terrible blamed Willson, and then continued to be terrible for months no matter who was back there. There will be a lot of new faces on the pitching staff by spring. Maybe the sniveling finger pointers will all be gone.
My untrained eye test doesn’t think he’s as bad as everyone else.
A catcher with an .800 OPS and 2.3 BWar 75% through the season is nothing to give away and definitely not pay to trade. At 9M per WAR valuation, he’s been worth $20.7M so far this year.
Instead, I’d trade Knizner while his value is high and let Herrera and Contreras split time and AB’s in 2024 and use Contreras as DH and backup 1B.
As mentioned above, the FA catching market is non existent for the offseason so Knizner might be a pretty valuable chip. (I love Knizner for the record, but it’s business)
My untrained eye test doesn’t think he’s as bad as everyone else.
According to Baseball Prospectus, he is 82nd amongst catchers in Defensive Runs Prevented, and 80th in Catching Defense Added.
According to Fangraphs, he is 65th amongst catchers who have caught at least 100 innings in Defensive Runs Saved.
According to Baseball Savant, he is 52nd in pitch framing.
A catcher with an .800 OPS and 2.3 BWar 75% through the season is nothing to give away and definitely not pay to trade.
Here is where the concept of opportunity cost is important.
What does it cost to acquire a free agent pitcher on the open market?
Now, what if you pay down 90% of Contreras’ contract and acquire a MLB-ready Top 100 pitcher who is cost-controlled for six season?
Are you really paying for Contreras to pay for the other team, or are you paying to acquire a starting pitcher at a reasonable cost?
A catcher with an .800 OPS and 2.3 BWar 75% through the season is nothing to give away
That may not be the issue though. The reason to move Contreras, if there is one, would be to upgrade defense/pitcher management. If we want to move him for that reason, then we have to take the best deal we can get. That best deal might be that Contreras is barely worth his contract, so nothing of significance would come back. We would just be moving him in exchange for also unloading his contract. If we insist on getting something back, we may end up not moving him at all, and the perceived need to upgrade defense/pitcher management would not be satisfied.
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