Carlson promoted

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This topic contains 68 replies, has 19 voices, and was last updated by Brian Walton Brian Walton 2 weeks, 1 day ago.

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  • #103435
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    Bob Reed
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    Angel Rondon innings, by year:

    2016: 42
    2017: 57 1/3
    2018: 88
    2019: 151

    Call me Mr. Cautious, but I say that for safety’s sake, Rondon should probably have been shut down weeks ago, when he crossed the 125 inning line or so. I hope to heaven that the organization isn’t considering the Arizona Fall League for Angel. Enormous 21-year-old Johan Oviedo on the other hand has only thrown 134 innings this year, after 122 in 2018. He’d be a natural fit, to me. Or perhaps 20-year-old Alvaro Seijas, as he’s kinda sorta proved himself in the Florida State League, and has thrown no more innings than he did last year. Well, 1/3 of an inning more.

    As for the noble subject of this thread, I can’t see Carlson going. The AFL is pretty much unanimously rated equivalent to a AA hitter’s league, and Dylan certainly has nothing to prove at that level. And maybe nothing to prove in AAA either, by the looks of it.

    I’m deeply ambivalent about a Carlson September call-up. I don’t disagree with any of Brian’s points…but if Carlson’s still batting, say, .450 with a 1.300 OPS on September 1, then I think you owe it to the kid — and the MLB team — to not only call him up, but start him for a week to see what happens. Could be lightning in a bottle.

    It’s already happened this year with rookies like Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso and Bo Bichette and Aristides Aquino and Will Smith and no doubt others I can’t recall at this time. All-time rookie power-hitting records are being set left and right, Dylan is hotter than the Sun right now, and MLB pitchers do not know him. If and only if he’s still torching the PCL in a week, then it wouldn’t bother me a bit to bring him up, provided he gets those 25 AB’s in the first week.

    #103437
    stlcard25
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    Bob, you have tempted me with your words, and I’m starting to believe that you might be right regarding Carlson in September. Brian had an article regarding his callup that I pretty much agreed with the other day…but you make a great case. He could be a real spark plug in the division race. The downside is pretty big though: you could end up losing the playoff spot and a year of Carlson down the road despite anything he does. So I’d be a bit torn. Good food for thought though and I do wonder if the Cards’ FO is contemplating it.

    #103471
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    SoonerinNC
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    You can bet the Cardinals FO is thinking about it every day. I don’t thing they will bring him up no matter what he does the rest of the season at Memphis. If he continues to excel there and destroys the AFL and the Cardinals don’t make the playoffs they will be seriously second guessed.

    #103474
    Brian Walton
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    Sooner, would the team be seriously second-guessed (by rational fans) even if the three starting outfielders play well in the final month – and are augmented by a healthy O’Neill and Martinez off the bench? Who do you want to sit so Carlson could play?

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 2 days ago by Brian Walton Brian Walton.
    #103479
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    atripleshyofthecycle
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    Put me down for someone who wants to see Carlson get started in AAA next year, and make his debut sometime in the first few months, never to go back down again (on his way to Cooperstown).

    #103494
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    SoonerinNC
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    I’m not advocating bringing Carlson up because I don’t know who to sit but I suspect the Cardinals management are agonizing over the decision. I think they would have to sit Bader, Jose Martinez and O’Neill and that would be a hard decision to make.

    #103500
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    Juan Soto is the same age as Carlson. I would think that Carlson would be the main reason they don’t re-sign Ozuna.

    #103511
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    Bob Reed
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    Sooner said:
    “I’m not advocating bringing Carlson up because I don’t know who to sit but I suspect the Cardinals management are agonizing over the decision. I think they would have to sit Bader….”

    And I agree. Carlson and Bader would be the moving parts in this equation. Marcell Ozuna is something of a lineup anchor, and we know Shildt has an inexplicable mental block when it comes to Fowler (and anyway, Delicate Dexter’s hit very well of late) and an equally oddball myopic view of Harry Bader in the other direction. So Shildt might easily be convinced by the front office that Dangerous Dylan Carlson is ready to play and start in The Show — at least on a trial basis.

    As much as I want Bader to start every day in center field for the next 4 or 5 years, IF come September 1st Carlson is still killing the horsehide and IF Bader is just muddling through at the plate, I wouldn’t mind if Harry were switched to a high-leverage fielder and pinch-runner for a week (or two) while Carlson tests the MLB waters.

    #103515
    Brian Walton
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    Well, we are talking about only a week to 10 days from now. Labor Day is it for Memphis. Bader has an OPS of 1.045 in his very limited three games back, so there isn’t much time remaining to decide a major change in course would be the best way to go for 2019. Is two weeks back enough time to fairly assess Bader before taking his starting spot away?

    In the same vein, a week or two trial would not be fair to Carlson, either, IMO. If they take the big step to bring him up, then he should get a real chance to start (for September). The issue I keep coming back to is that this is pretty risky for a team fighting for a playoff berth (and there is no indication yet that Bader deserves to lose his job, which would also put Fowler back in CF, BTW).

    #103568
    ZTR
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    Bader just has to hit / get on base more or he can’t stay in the line up.

    I figure hes got about a week to 10 days to show something (may be a week from right now).

    Is Thomas not a better option?

    #103570
    Brian Walton
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    Bader’s OBP since his return is .533.

    #103580
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    gscottar
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    Dexter Fowler has somewhat stabilized the leadoff spot in the lineup and he can at least play an average RF. Putting him in CF diminishes his value a great deal in my opinion. If bringing Carlson up automatically means Fowler goes to CF that should end the discussion right there, not to mention the myriad of other reasons that make this a bad idea.

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 1 day ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #103686
    bicyclemike
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    One value Dex brings is the ability to cover center field when needed. That was a huge benefit this year when Bader tanked. It looks like “George” Harrison Bader might be better going forward, but we will see.

    As for “Dylan “Windy” Carlson, no way he comes to the big club in September given the current situation. No need to rush him up. Start him at Memphis next year and give him a full season there, unless injuries dictate otherwise. If we were sub-.500 and playing out the string, yeah you might bring him up and let him play in St. Louis the last month. But the way things are now, no way.

    #103689
    stlcard25
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    I don’t know about a full season, BikeMike…but I agree that he should probably start at Memphis unless he eviscerates opposing pitching in Spring Training. We are in an age where young players seem to be increasingly peaking early only to see their value fall off even earlier than expected. If Carlson is one of the best three OF on the team at 21 then he should be starting in St Louis, not waiting for an injury.

    I could see him being a mid season callup if the Cards decide to move on from someone like Fowler or part with Bader or O’Neill at the deadline next year. (I’m already assuming that Jmart is gone as he pretty much has to be, right?)

    #103692
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    Cardinals27
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    What a crop of outfielders we have. All at AAA or better. None of these players deserve to play at AA again. Another consideration is option years left.

    Arozarena
    Bader
    Carlson
    Garcia
    O’Neill
    Thomas
    Williams

    #103696
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    CardsFanInChiTown
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    C27, if I were a betting man, my over/under on how many of those names will be traded in the offseason is 1.5, and I’d take the over. Carlson and perhaps Bader would be my only “untouchables” (unless it was someone like Lindor).

    #104141
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    gscottar
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    As we expected….

    #104160
    Brian Walton
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    Or as we already knew… 😉

    Also, Carlson was named to the Texas League Post-Season All-Star Team today. That was assumed since he was announced as Player of the Year yesterday, but still worth confirming, sort of like the above. He also was honored in the first half.

    #104409
    Brian Walton
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    Not surprisingly, the best prospect in the system had the best season, per BA’s assessment.

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