Baseball Prospectus prospect rankings

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  • #43205
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

    Pitching velocity and HRs have taken over the game in this era. HRs make the highlight reels, especially the bombs. Speed, defense and ERAs are only side dishes. For the HR boys, Ks/AB are not a factor, as well as, pitchers Q-starts. The juiced ball and Sabrmetrics rule.

    #43210
    AvatarPadsFS
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    Brian Walton

    Simple answer: Alcantara throws 100 mph.

    He threw 100 MPH after 2016 too, but Hudson was ranked right there with him I believe.

    #43220
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Paid - Annual

    Well, BP has liked Alcantara for a long time. He was #40 overall on BP’s 2017 national rankings. Hudson did not make BP’s 2017 top 100, any other national top 100s, for that matter. In fact, Hudson isn’t on any top 100’s this year, either.

    #43243
    AvatarPadsFS
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    I thought Hudson had made the fangraphs one, or at least one of the mid-season ones, but he was MIA other than an honorable mention. Interesting that Fangraphs had Delvin Perez just ahead of Ronald Ocuna prior to the 2017 season. I have a feeling he will be back.

    #43323
    grayssportsalmanacgrayssportsalmanac
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    Its interesting to me the value that is put on “upside” vs “floor” in prospect rankings. Do they weight it a certain way? It seems to me that people fall in love with upside and might discount downside, at least in a what is just an ordinal ranking (quant) situation..

    #43336
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I cannot speak for others, but I assess prospects on two scales. One is the ceiling and the other is how much work they have to get there. But the ranking on pure upside only would be different from the regular ranking. Every year, I re-spin our top 50 based on upside only and as you might guess, a Delvin Perez kind of prospect moves up and a Carson Kelly moves down. Of course, even though there are numbers and grades assessed, when all is said and done, it represents my opinion.

    #44651
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

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    The minor leaguer that I will be following the closest this year is Delvin Perez.

    We felt like he fell into our lap when we drafted him. He has a really high ceiling but had a disastrous 2017. We really need for him to gain some muscle, realize his potential, and not flame out. I would like to see him be our starting SS by 2020 or 2021.

    I’m hoping he gets to spend a lot of time this Spring with Ozzie and Oquendo on enhancing his on the field techniques but also learning from those guys what all it takes to be a professional on the field and off the field.

    • This reply was modified 3 years ago by Avatargscottar.
    • This reply was modified 3 years ago by Avatargscottar.
    #44656
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    It is worth noting that Oquendo spent a lot of the last two years with Perez in Florida. Last summer, part of the reason Delvin was sent back down from JC to the GCL, I am told, is to get remedial work in with Jose. This winter, Oquendo worked with him again with team Puerto Rico in the U-23 World Cup qualifier. They were also at Instructional Camp in January.

    My point is that they have had plenty of opportunity to work together up until now. But with Jose now full time back with St. Louis, this will change.

    FWIW, since Perez signed with the Cards, I have not heard about any off-the-field problems. I guess his mistake as a high schooler will stay with him in the eyes of some.

    #44665
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

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    I wasn’t referring to legal or PED issues. I meant maybe he can learn from the old timers in areas that deal with preparation, nutrition, repetition, etc… I’m sure I’m not re-inventing the wheel here but he is young and needs as much guidance as possible.

    I’m not saying he should be coddled but as a first rounder he is a significant investment and needs to be given every resource we have available. I’m sure this is already happening but just wanted to voice my opinion.

    #45693
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
    Participant

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    Didnt really know where to put this.

    https://www.milb.com/milb/news/farm-system-rankings-21-and-under-talent/c-268414032

    Hint: It is not good!

    #45700
    AvatarNigel T
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    Plummer, Denton, and Perez have really hurt us along with the loss of picks. They don’t mention Montero or Yepez. Carlson and Hicks could make this list look silly by themselves.
    If Fernandez recovers fully, he would make quite a difference.

    I can’t believe every other team has superior talent to our group even looking negatively. We are top heavy, but that is a good thing.

    #45710
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

    There is a terrific drop off in the lower levels. Perez and Plummer seem to be wasted #1s. The lost draft picks last season hurt. Plus the attention to the international players hasn’t panned out just yet. All of this = #30. Perhaps the well is running dry. We knew this was coming. Other teams are drafting wiser.

    It would be nice to have the recent set of prospects at the highest levels to become long term solutions.

    • This reply was modified 2 years, 11 months ago by Avatar14NyquisT.
    #45713
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

    There are a few on here that will still argue what has happened… but #30 is still the very bottom.

    #45718
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    The Cardinals didn’t invest in the international market like I thought they would have. Sure they spent a lot of money during the 2016 signing period but other teams spent more and got higher prospects. Missing out on Luis Robert still stings and I have yet to see what the Cards did with the money they were going to spend on him.

    #45724
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    The Cards invested sufficiently in the international mkt in 2016. It just looks like the players they invested in are not panning out for the most part.

    #45753
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    Now for the good news!

    https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/3/15/17121536/top-175-mlb-prospects-for-2018

    Cards tied for first with Braves for most players (12) in Sickels top 175.

    #45756
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    Most of our guys are in the second half of the 175, but still good to see.

    On a side note, has anyone noticed that the name “Dakota” seems to be quite popular? In 2016 we sold the house that I grew up in, and the buyer’s name was Dakota (won’t mention the last name for privacy, although no one here would know him anyway). And then literally a week later when I was at work, I got a call from a guy with the exact same name, Dakota, and the same last name as the guy I sold the house to. I thought maybe he was calling back to ask something about the house, but wondered how he got my work number. Turns out it was a different Dakota <blank>. This “Dakota” was a salesman.

    #60080
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    BP has published its mid-season top 50. No Cardinals are included, though there is a footnote that Alex Reyes would be in the 12-15 range if they were not concerned about his comeback from injury.
    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/41327/2018-prospects-the-midseason-top-50/

    #80513
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #80514
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Here are their Cards top 10 again. It came out on 1/7. So they do not see Hudson (and all below him) as a top 100 prospect nationally.

    1 Alex Reyes, RHP
    2 Nolan Gorman, 3B
    3 Dakota Hudson, RHP
    4 Andrew Knizner, C
    5 Elehuris Montero, 3B
    6 Malcom Nunez, 3B
    7 Griffin Roberts, RHP
    8 Evan Mendoza, 3B
    9 Edmundo Sosa, IF
    10 Luken Baker, 1B

    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/46009/2019-prospects-st-louis-cardinals-top-10-prospects/

    #82367
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #120719
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #120864
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    Free

    Brian, do you have BP’s top 10 list for the Cardinals?

    #120866
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    BHC, I don’t believe they have yet published that list. Do you suspect otherwise?

    #120869
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    Free

    Brian, this page says they released the Cardinals list on January 24.

    Top 10 Prospect Lists

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