Baseball Prospectus prospect rankings

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  • #26827
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Mid-season top 50
    9. Reyes
    36. Kelly
    39. Alcantara
    46. Sierra

    Interesting no Weaver, Flaherty or Bader. Still, four out of 50 when “fair share” is less than two is a great showing.
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32224

    • This topic was modified 3 years, 8 months ago by Brian WaltonBrian Walton.
    #26832
    AvatarBrianpnoonan
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    That about covers it..

    Maybe I was a year early in saying we are loaded in the minors but it is definitely playing out.

    The fact that we have three guys who you could legitimately argue are top 50 guys and they still have four? Lol

    Still think kelly is too low. He is a series of 5-7 war seasons waiting to happen.

    Alcantara is probably too high to be fair to the other side.

    • This reply was modified 3 years, 8 months ago by AvatarBrianpnoonan.
    #26839
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Flaherty, Weaver, and Bader are all legitimate top 100 candidates but by no means slam dunk top 50 guys

    #26841
    AvatarBrianpnoonan
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    They have an argument… Not every prospect is moncada etc. Having an argument is noteworthy… Just to show depth.

    #26842
    Avatarbccran
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    Alcantara over Flaherty, Weaver,
    and Hudson? Don’t think so,

    #26844
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Flaherty with his bump in velocity and dominant performance at Springfield prob has the best case.

    If someone will value Alcantara as a top 50 guy and let us keep Flaherty in w trade, I’m all in.

    #26845
    AvatarDerek Shore
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    Not surprised to see those mentioned above left off. Too many question marks surrounding Weaver’s durability as a starter in the long-term. Bader is a bit of a tweener; his power potential is far less intriguing in a corner outfield spot. Flaherty still doesn’t quite have overpowering stuff to enter that elite conversation. Hudson is the most interesting for me. He should be a definite top 5 prospect in the system.

    #26847
    AvatarBrianpnoonan
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    If bader puts up near a .900 ops he can be a tweener in center all he wants

    #26848
    AvatarBrianpnoonan
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    Think of it a different way.

    Seven top 100 guys is probably easily a top 3 system. And perez and hudson might have an argument too.

    #26853
    Avatarbccran
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    Bader has 16 home runs in 300 at bats so far this year. How does that project to a full season?

    #26864
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    If Gallen continues to perform well at AAA he might make some top 100 lists. Some rankers love guys that perform well and are young for the league. Gallen is younger than many of the top college draftees this year and is in AAA. He is nearly 6 years younger than the league average.

    #26888
    AvatarDerek Shore
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    Not doubting he has power. For reference, Bader had 14 home runs in his first 304 at-bats last year (April 7 to July 10, .283 average) compared to 17 in 304 at-bats right now. From July 11 and on, he would finish the season with exactly five in his final 161 at-bats with a .236 average. My point is he is a peaks and valleys player, and average game power is not nearly as intriguing in a run-producing position like left or right field than in center where Sierra is atop the depth chart.

    #26889
    Avatarbccran
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    Last season was Bader’s first full season in the minors. A 5 month grind, playing almost everyday.
    That takes some getting used to. We’ll see how the last part of the season goes for him this year, now that he knows what to expect and perhaps how to prepare for it.

    #26905
    AvatarPadsFS
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    I’m intrigued to see how Delvin Perez finishes the year. He was #79 in the BP offseason top 100. He hasn’t played at all at the time of this report so he should be finishing up in the 50s by seasons’ end.

    He hasn’t hit much in JC this year in limited PT, but he also has zero errors after nearly 90 innings, which I think is incredible after putting up 17 in 300+ innings last year in the GCL.

    #26933
    Avatarmudville
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    Its worth noting that the BP people were able to come up with a reasonable explanation for’Why He Might Fail’ for every player on the list, except Carson Kelly. The BP apparently could not find a rational explanation for why Carson Kelly might fail. I sure hope we don’t trade Kelly. To me. that would be like if the Green Bay Packers traded Aaron Rodgers because they already had a 39 year-old Brett Favre who can still play.

    #26950
    AvatarBrianpnoonan
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    Kelly is a top 5 prospect if you look at things a bit.

    Name another position player with an ops roughly 150 points above league average at his position who plays above average defense in aaa at 22 or younger.

    You might find one. Moncada? Maybe? Same rough ops at easier position.

    #41051
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I missed Baseball Prospectus’ top 10 Cardinals for 2018. They published it a few days before the Ozuna trade, but what is most interesting is Wadye Ynfante at #10. I guess they just like to throw a longshot in to draw attention. That is all I can think of.

    Alex Reyes, RHP
    Carson Kelly, C
    Magneuris Sierra, OF
    Jack Flaherty, RHP
    Sandy Alcantara, RHP
    Jordan Hicks, RHP
    Andrew Knizner, C
    Tyler O’Neill, OF
    Harrison Bader, OF
    Wadye Ynfante, OF

    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/36513/st-louis-cardinals-top-10-prospects-2018-alex-reyes-carson-kelly-wadye-ynfante/

    #41059
    Avatarmudville
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    I wonder when people are going to start noticing Adolis Garcia.

    #41073
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Good point. Putting Ynfante ahead of Adolis is absurd. But then again, these guys put Vaughn Bryan at #10 a few years ago. We actually had a poster on here (old board) defend that pick, so everyone is clearly not looking at the same things in their evaluations.

    #41076
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

    Ynfante is a nice prospect…. if he plays like a top-10er he’ll blow passed a few of the group of CFers we have coming up.

    Some selectors have put lesser talented players ahead of JAGarcia, Bader, O’Neill, Hicks, Knizner, etc. Some, indeed, look at different “things” in their evaluations.

    #41081
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Nothing against Ynfante. He has nice upside at #32, but putting him ahead of 22 others, including Adolis and Arozarena, is a real head-scratcher – same as when they ranked Bryan #10.

    #43193
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #43196
    AvatarPadsFS
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    Wow. They put Sierra at #56. (Alcantara at 70)

    To me, prospect fatigue is the only reason that Carson Kelly should be ranked behind any other catcher at the moment, even Mejia. Mejia posted a 127 wRC+ at AA this year, while Kelly put up a 120 wRC+ at AAA. Kelly had a way more impressive 11.3% BB% rate too. I know he’s a year older, but with all these catchers, they only *hope* to be where Kelly already is this year (I realize he’s blocked, but if not for Molina, Kelly would start anywhere else in 2018)

    I don’t see how the Cubs guy, Alzolay is ranked at all other than wanting a rep from the Cubs on the list. He doesn’t look good to me.

    Alcantara was rated below O’Neill, Bader, Hudson, and Sierra here, just ahead of Gallen, Gomber, Helsley, and Hicks. I don’t know what the national guys see in regards to putting him ahead of those guys after his lackluster 2017.

    He was superb in 2016, but took a step back somewhat in 2017. I thought he cemented his role as a relief pitcher with the caveat that I hoped we would give him 3-4 months in AAA to see if he could become a starter.

    Can someone explain to me how he is seemingly so far ahead of Hudson in the national eyes? I had them neck-and-neck at #6 in the voting pool, but they are so similar.

    Same age, same size, same innings load at AA in 2017, nearly the same peripherals, Hudson with 2.53 ERA, Alcantara with 4.31. Alcantara with the big fastball (Hudson is still mid-90’s) and Hudson with the dominant sinker/slider.

    We’ll see in 2018 I guess.

    #43200
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Simple answer: Alcantara throws 100 mph.

    #43203
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

    These teams have the most top 101 selections by Baseball Prospectus. Although the players change some with other top-100 lists, this is a good indicator of which teams have the best farm systems

    CWS- 8… 4-RHP 3-OF
    ATL- 7… 3-LHP 3-RHP
    PHI- 7… 3-RHP 3-MInf
    LAD- 7… 4-RHP
    SD – 6… 4-P
    NYY-WAS-MIA-OAK- 5 ea.

    Lowest number of prospects in top-101
    BOS-NYM-KC-CHC-SF-ARI- 1 ea. (and all are in the second 50)
    SEA-0

    These 3 teams are going with pitching.
    ATL-6 (4-top50) CWS-4 (3-top50) SD-4 (3-top50). If these teams decide to hold on to their P prospects they should look to improve. I didn’t get a chance to check what levels they’re at.

    **Its amazing that AlReyes is the highest ranked pitcher, despite injury and the fact that he’ll miss April and doesn’t quite have a sure landing spot. AR is going to be great no matter where he winds up.

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