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858, how do you know that O’Neill will not become an even greater Matheny favorite? I hear he has taken up chess during the off-season. 😉
brianpnoonan, I recall that perception in the past and I assure you, I have no reason to defend BA. However, in recent years, BA’s Cardinals systems rankings do not stand out whatsoever. I keep ranking data from past years in a spreadsheet. Each year, I average the top five national raters to come up with a Cardinals average (and write an article about it).
Specifically, in three of the last five years, BA’s ranking of the Cardinals system was the same as the average. BA’s Cardinals system ranking was BETTER than the all others and BETTER than the average by three spots one year (2016) and one spot worse than the average in the other year (2015).
2018 data is not yet in.
And… BA ranks the Cards system #13 for 2018, pretty much the same as everyone else so far.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018-organizational-talent-rankings/
BA is rolling out positional rankings, starting with catchers. The Cards have Kelly at #3 and Knizner at #13. Mejia and Pint are #1 and #2, same as BaseballHQ.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018-position-rankings-catchers/
Wonder if Ravelo, Schrock, Munoz,
O’Neill, and Garcia will make their respective lists. That Memphis ball club is going to be something else this season.Among second base prospects in MiLB, Schrock comes in at No. 8, according to BA: https://t.co/WP6IMWwlsj
I agree, bccran. I have said it before, but if MLB teams had 50-man rosters and had to play them all regularly, I think the Cards might win the World Series, because of the wealth of prospects close to the majors. Of course, they all cannot play, but in the real world, the depth should be an asset.
(Yes, I know some believe this depth is being wasted and should be traded for another team’s star (or stars). It is not a new position to take. For several years not all that long ago, nate pleaded for the farm system be emptied to acquire Paul Goldschmidt. Never mind the fact that he was probably not available. I am really looking forward to be able to talk about real baseball soon!)
Got my 2018 Prospect Handbook today
Top 31 Cardinal prospects;
1 Reyes
2 Flaherty
3 Kelly
4 O’Neill
5 Hicks
6 Bader
7 Hudson
8 Helsley
9 Adolis Garcia
10 Knizer
11 Arozarena
12 Delvin Perez
13 Mercado
14 Gomber
15 Machado
16 Voit
17 Yairo Munoz
18 Woodford
19 Schrock
20 Fernandez
21 Seijas
22 Jones
23 Oviedo
24 Carlson
25 Hurst
26 Infante
27 Derian Gonzalez
28 Victor Garcia
29 Edman
30 Sosa
31 Ivan HerreraMy high suprises
Voit, V Garcia, EdmanMy low suprises
Munoz, Schrock, SosaMissing
MendozaWorth nothing the Alcantara/Sierra trade allowed Knizner to move into the Top 10. He was left off on the Top 10 for the rankings posted in November, I believe. Interesting sleeper pick in Ivan Herrera. BA seems very high on Garcia, who wasn’t even a Best of the Rest here. Ben Badler must have gotten good reports.
Either that or they saw Victor Garcia’s $1.5 MM bonus and rated him again based on that. Last year, before he played a game, BA rated Victor a very optimistic #22 in the system. Unlike Herrera, who I also like, Garcia was not good at all in the DSL last season, with a .677 OPS. For a supposed power guy, his .337 SLG was really concerning. That is why he did not make my list. That and the fact there were concerns about his swing when he was in Jupiter after signing. Also worth noting the Cards have not invited him back to any of the camps in the USA since, but he is just 18. So too early to call him a bust! 😉
Thanks for sharing, Sooner and Derek.
Cardinals 13th overall
No top 100 but ranked by position
Cardinals ranked
catcher – Kelly #3, Knizer #10
2b – Schrock #9
corner of – O’Neill #10
rhp – Reyes #5, Flaherty #19For comparison, here is BA’s top 10 from November, pre-trades. Along with Knizner, Adolis Garcia slipped into the updated top 10. Good choices, IMO.
1 Alex Reyes RHP
2 Jack Flaherty RHP
3 Carson Kelly C
4 Sandy Alcantara RHP
5 Tyler O’Neill OF
6 Jordan Hicks RHP
7 Magneuris Sierra OF
8 Harrison Bader OF
9 Dakota Hudson RHP
10 Ryan Helsley RHPCardinals have control for 2019 of 38 of the 40 guys on their 40 man roster (Wainwright and Norris only Fa’s) There are 6 guys on the BA list that will need roster spots for rule 5 protection at the end of the year. That doesnt count Hudson or Garcia who easily could get a roster spot during the year. It doesnt count any possible surprises like Brebbia that crack the roster during the year. It doesn’t count Wisdom or anyone else that could need protection so as not to become minor league free agents. Then there are just those that emerge but are still in the minors but need protecting. I know these things have a way of working themselves out but next year’s roster crunch could be the worst yet.
This is a by-product problem of having a deep system – many good players. Some do not understand the roster tradeoffs that could lead to good players ending up on the waiver wire and/or being exposed in the Rule 5 draft. Trades to minimize surplus would be wonderful – if other teams are interested and have more roster space themselves.
On your specific point, CC, last year, spots opened up during the season as players played their way off the roster – Socolovich, Broxton, Peralta, Adams, Leake, Fryer, Siegrist, etc. Generally, they were replaced by prospects as part of what I have called a quiet transition over the past two years.
When you step back and look at it, there has been an awful lot of turnover. Of the 31 players on the roster at the start of 2016 (25 active and six on the DL), just 11 of them are still with the team. In fact, I think I am going to write about this!
The 25 also should be approximately 50% different at the start of the year.
People may not like what Mo has done but the cant accurately say he has done nothing.
I don’t usually post pay article links on the free board, but since the article was inspired by the discussion in this thread, I made an exception. I have posted my analysis of the changes to the Cardinals roster over the last two years and looked ahead two years as well.
65% of #stlcards players from Opening Day 2016 are gone. I look at sourcing of replacements and am surprised by the data. I also project how the roster may keep changing over the next two years. ($) https://t.co/VG1v7jMbtm pic.twitter.com/llzAzgERFR
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 19, 2018
BA has just posted their updated national top 100 for mid-season. I would guess it includes 2018 draftees. It is behind their paywall.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2018-top-100-prospects/
2018 Latin American signings and 2018 draftees aren’t elgible until July 6th, So I guess they will have another top 100 list then. Not sure why they didn’t wait until then any way.
Reyes moves down to No. 29 on the updated rankings (was at 13 previously). O’Neill is now at No. 68 (was 71 before). Kelly slided to No. 81 after being at 68 before the season.
The #STLCards is well-represented in Baseball America’s Best Tools survey, with eight players named: https://t.co/Ec3NbaZVuW pic.twitter.com/RwfRhQ9AWm
— Derek Shore (@D_Shore23) August 18, 2018
Three #stlcards prospects are included. Along with Nunez, OFs Joerlin De Los Santos (TCN no. 33 prospect) and Adanson Cruz (honorable mention) are profiled. The trio are among 80 players in Cardinals extended spring training camp in Jupiter, FL. ($) https://t.co/SIadQLdCzB https://t.co/OS2IGviq4U
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) April 19, 2019
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