August 25, 2019 at 3:28 am #103637Bob ReedParticipantFree
Maybe this should be a thread of its own, but anyway I’d like to view Randy Arozarena through the prism so to speak of two other Cardinals who also never came close to anyone’s top 100 prospect list, but went on to MLB careers of some value.
Rather than immediately revealing who each player is, I’d like to first do a side-by-side-by-side comparison of the three, from High-A and on up.
Player A was 22 in High-A and posted 127 wRC+ over 285 plate appearances.
Player B was also 22, and he put up a 146 wRC+ in 468 PA’s.
Player C was also 22 at Palm Beach, with a 134 wRC+ in 295 PA’s.
(I’ll get to the plate discipline markers later, but for the entirety of their minor league careers their BB/K/AB ratios are so similar from one guy to the next that it’s not for fretting over.)
Player A competed in Double-A across parts of four seasons, age 22-25, with a cumulative 144 wRC+.
Player B was in Double-A at ages 22 and 23, and posted a 131 wRC+.
Player C spent time in Double-A at ages 22-24, with a 149 wRC+. (Each batter had 400-600 total PA’s in Double-A.)
So to this point I’d say that Player A is pulling up the rear a bit. He wasn’t quite as strong in High-A as the others, and needed the most years of anyone in Double-A. Player B was clearly best at Palm Beach, but C surpassed him by a chunk at Springfield — albeit Player C did get some time in Springfield at age 24, which B did not. So for me it’s a pretty close call as to who’s got the top performance pedigree at this point. In any case, on to Memphis.
Player A had a very fine 132 wRC+ in Triple-A, but was 26 at the time.
Player B at age 24 posted an excellent 140 wRC+ for Memphis.
Player C spent the bulk of his age 24 season in Triple-A, and had a tremendous 153 wRC+.
(As mentioned before, their minor league career plate discipline markers are extremely similar, with A accruing a .43 BB/K ratio, player B posting a .52 ratio, and C logging a .46 BB/K tally. Realy not worth quibbling about the advantage for B. It’s real, but not remotely spectacular.)
So let’s take the two players with lengthy MLB experience and see how well their minor league performances foreshadowed their major league careers.
From High-A to Triple-A, Player A had a wRC+ that ranged from 127 to 144 and averaged 134. And in his best 3-year major league stretch, he posted a cumulative 132 wRC+. You can’t get any closer than that.
From High-A to Triple-A, player B’s wRC+ was just a hair better, ranging from 131 to 146 and averaging 139. In the majors? During his 3-year peak he had a collective 139 wRC+. So I was wrong. You could get closer.
Player C is obviously Arozarena, as there’s no MLB 3-year peak to report. But from Palm Beach to Memphis, his wRC+ numbers were best of all, ranging from 134 in High-A to 153 currently in Triple-A, and he averaged a robust 145. Now I’m not saying that Randy’s hitting skills will transfer as readily as his predecessors’ did. But imagine if he just comes anywhere close. We could be looking at a 3-4 win player in his prime. (Of course, first he’d need a manager who “has his back.”)
Oh, I almost forgot. Player A is Tommy Pham by the way, and B is Allen Craig. Pretty good company.August 25, 2019 at 10:40 am #103671forsch31ParticipantFree
Great post Bob. I really don’t understand why Randy didn’t get a better look when he was up.August 25, 2019 at 12:35 pm #103677gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
For those clamoring for the Cardinals to spend $100M to bring Ozuna back instead of shoring up the rotation please read Bob’s post. And we have several young OF’s equal to Randy.
September 5, 2019 at 4:59 pm #105253GameCardParticipantPaid - Monthly
- This reply was modified 5 months ago by gscottar.
Explain again why Justin Williams wasn’t called up. He is a hot-hitting LH bat off the bench or to pinch-hit?September 5, 2019 at 7:07 pm #105258mudvilleParticipantPaid - Annual
My guess is that he hasn’t been doing it long enough yet to establish a reliable track record. I’m pretty sure that if his coaches thought he was ready they would’ve sent them up. He’s definitely one to watch next year. Just my opinion.September 5, 2019 at 7:22 pm #105260GameCardParticipantPaid - Monthly
Why not call him up…he is a LH bat off the bench even if you don’t use him.September 5, 2019 at 9:05 pm #105273gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
If you call him up you have to pay him even if you don’t use him.
Also, I read somewhere that Cardinal management wasn’t thrilled with some of Williams behavior this year.
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