March 30, 2022 at 8:53 pm #181558
1982 willie wrote…….
My hope is he gets his 21 homers to make 700
Absolutely no way does Pujols get to 700 homeruns this year. He’s basically the DH against lefties, a few starts at 1stbase to spell Goldschmidt, and some pinch-hitting appearances. Probably around 200 atbats at the most. And there’s no way he hits 21 homeruns in 200 atbats. Look at his recent stats.
r/Esteemed RatMarch 30, 2022 at 9:01 pm #181561
Did you not read what I wrote. I said I hoped. You can be negative if you want to be. If pujols is hitting well, I expect him to get a decent number of bats. Whether it be lefties or righties. The fact that pujols has said this it, signals that he isn’t specifically chasing numbers. The freedom that may bring can only be good. So I’m choosing positivety over pessimism, negativety, and maybe good baseball sense. But that is what spring is about.March 30, 2022 at 9:21 pm #181563
Yes, 1982 Willie, I know what you wrote. I just wanted to point out there is no way that happens. Didn’t mean to rain on your parade..:)
By the way, did you get any rain tonight down towards Evansville? We had alot of high winds today but we have missed most of the storms and rain – so far.
r/Esteemed RatMarch 30, 2022 at 9:54 pm #181564
Well rats, that’s ok for you to think that way, I just choose not to. I’m hoping that pujols has that lou Brock last season of magic. If he dont, then it is as it is. Far as storms, no we didn’t really have any. Just quite a bit of rain. Got pretty lucky actually. It was really warm today, with cooler fronts coming in that can mean some bad weather. At least so far it’s not bad.March 31, 2022 at 9:01 am #181570PugsleyAddamsParticipantPaid - Annual
I think Albert has a decent shot at 700. Two very huge intangibles in his corner this year. Knowing that this is his last hurrah and returning home where 95% of his baseball magic took place. Albert will launch 23 dingers and hit well into the .270’s. And may I be the first to call for a nice subscription rate increase. It’s been too long since we had one. If I may, I would like to suggest to Brian that he hit up the Cardinal Nation whales first. A hefty 100% rate increase for RatsBuddy would be a great opening rate increase salvo. It’s water off a duck’s back to Rat, as it merely represents a few pulls of the handle for Rat over at his local one armed bandit establishment.March 31, 2022 at 7:25 pm #181602BrockLouParticipantFree
Looking over Pujol’s stats at baseball reference, the season that stands out as a fluke is last year. Seeing as he is a Cardinal again, I hope this uptick in his stats continues, but it would be very unusual.
Like someone once said, “I root for the laundry, not who’s wearing it.”April 1, 2022 at 6:41 am #181615blingboyParticipantPaid - Annual
Albert’s 2021 was like two different seasons. OPS+ was 34 points higher with the Dodgers (101 vs 67 with Angels). The 67 was a continuation of his trajectory the last few years. So, was the 101 with the Dodgers a fluke, or the result of different utilization aimed at tapping what his remaining strengths are? My hunch is that different utilization was responsible for the up tic.
If different utilization was responsible, then there are reasons to think we can see a 100ish OPS+ this year, for the same reason the Dodgers got that out of him. There is the mention of a limited role right up front. There is the emerging roster construction, which seems to allow for deploying him to greatest advantage, against lefties either as DH or PH, as matchups dictate. There is the apparent appointment of Marmol because of his enthusiasm for utilizing metrics to create advantages game by game and in-game. And there is the fact that Marmol will not be under pressure to keep a fat paycheck on the field rather than riding the pine. There is also the psychological factor of being back where it all began, with the realistic possibility of going out in a blaze of glory rather than just fading away.April 1, 2022 at 8:01 am #181622ZTRParticipantFree
I think he will do ‘ok’ but other than driving ticket and jersey sales are there multiple better options already in the system?
If you did a blind stat test he’s probably not the player you’d pick for the ML roster.April 1, 2022 at 8:07 am #181624MrperkinsParticipantFree
Maybe they will do the McGwire thing. Start Mark at 2nd base on the road vs lefty to hit in the first inning, then replace him with Edman as pinch runner/defensive substitution. I was never a big fan of this but there is a precedent.April 1, 2022 at 8:08 am #181625gscottarParticipantPaid - AnnualApril 1, 2022 at 10:26 am #181627forsch31ParticipantFree
The Cardinals may have some players in the minors that MAY be capable of putting up an OPS of better than .750 this year with a batting average barely over .250. Pujols has a good chance of putting up an OPS over.800 with a batting average around .250 and a home run about every 15 plate appearances, just against left handed pitching. I think I would rather let Pujols bat against every left handed pitcher, Dickerson against right handed pitchers and have the unproven hitters work a little more at Memphis.
Between Gorman, Burleson, Donovan and Yepez, who would you have brought up at the end of the year last year if the Cardinals had a strong hitting team? What do you honestly think any of them would have for stats with the major league team this year?April 1, 2022 at 11:53 am #181635
It all gets down to whose projections you trust. I happened to have a Fangraphs window open when I read the above comment. Here are 2022 OPS projections for the players mentioned.
Based on this, I’d take the young guys with upside.April 1, 2022 at 5:41 pm #181664
I’m not big on projections especially when it comes to unproven stuff. The younger players haven’t been in the majors. More likely they tank based on what usually happens with unproven players. S
Maybe you can project on pujols but baseball is different than other sports. You can’t factor in intangibles like the excitement of being in a cardinal uniform, being around old friends. Better to have positives than negatives.April 1, 2022 at 10:26 pm #181677forsch31ParticipantFree
Brian, based on those same projections, here is how some other prospects would be projected in the majors:
Matt Koperniak .686 (.717 at Springfield in 2021)
Conner Capel .633 (.790 at Memphis, his highest in an extended look since 2017)
Kramer Robertson .638 (.780 at Memphis, his highest as a pro)
Malcolm Nunez .626 (.702 at Springfield)
I don’t see how they would be that close to Pujols’ numbers considering he has hit that low in only 1 FULL season in his career. The minor leaguers I have named have not shown much so far in the minors.
I don’t expect a “Pujols” year from him this year, but I do think his OPS will be around .725-.750 if he is used when the matchup is favorable. I also think he will get between 250-300 plate appearances. Unless he has found a way to turn back the clock, any more than that will not be good.April 2, 2022 at 4:36 pm #181696jj-cf-stlParticipantPaid - Annual
PA’s utilization you spoke of was different Bling, Angels vs Dodgers. His handedness splits against were 70% / 30% (R/L) as an Angel and 40% / 60% (R/L) as a Dodger.
There was also a .069% increase in BAbip “luck” as a Dodger.
Angels used him as a starter, Dodgers cherry picked his PA’s as a pinch hitter.April 4, 2022 at 7:48 am #181747
Projections are much better when they tell us what we want to see. 😉
I looked at Fantasy Pros’ first base OPS projections. They have:
Of course, Yepez has no MLB experience, but a lot of work has been done trying to calculate Triple-A equivalencies.April 4, 2022 at 2:02 pm #181794April 4, 2022 at 4:43 pm #181803so_cal_cards_fanParticipantFree
That’s very sad, even without knowing any of the details. I hope they can raise their kids in a loving environment.April 4, 2022 at 6:37 pm #181805blingboyParticipantPaid - Annual
Some things money can’t buyApril 4, 2022 at 7:01 pm #181806
Who is starting for the Pirates on Thursday? Not sure I would want Pujols in the #5 slot unless it would indeed be against a lefty.April 4, 2022 at 8:42 pm #181808stlcard25ParticipantPaid - Annual
Man, that makes me sad to hear. I was praying for Deidre’s surgery and hope for the best in everything.April 5, 2022 at 8:11 am #181830ZTRParticipantFree
Yeah, they were together for a long, long time for it to end like this.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.