50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 Cardinals Prospects: 2018

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  • #41075
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    From the newbie analysis:
    The 2016 Cardinals draft had three first-rounders, one more than each of the prior two years. Of course, as most know, the 2017 Cardinals forfeited their top three selections – one for the signing of free agent Dexter Fowler and the other two were awarded to Houston as part of the penalty for the Chris Correa hacking case.
    So, in 2016, St. Louis made four picks before the 2017 club was able to make any. But had the Cards been able to make their three early selections, it is reasonable to assume all three would have joined the other four.
    *****************************************************************************

    I am still feeling that the penalty picks that we lost plus the one pick lost to the ill-fated Fowler signing, has left a scar on the rosters of the rookie leagues that will see a depleted Peoria roster in 2018. If a couple of starters destined for State College (Prendergast-Schlesener-Seijas) are pushed up to Peoria, that will leave a big void at SC, a trickle down effect.

    I know that there is no way of knowing who the Cards would have selected. Had they been Ps things would not appear so barren. And even if they were positional players it would make a difference as there have been some drop off of infield talent.(Kirtley, Balbuena, Whalen, Murders, plus several at GCL-Cards and especially Perez had poor to terrible seasons. Throw in C Zack Jackson’s (4th player chosen by STL) disappointing season and you get a sense that the system will have quite a drop-off of talent in the lower levels. There are some bright spots but they are out-numbered by poor performances and disappointment.

    I’m still feeling that 3 high picks lost have had an impact on the rookie-level teams and will continue to deflate rosters in the coming years.

    #41142
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Derek Shore goes deep on six prospects who just missed our top 50 – plus one deep sleeper for 2018. ($)

    https://thecardinalnation.com/2018-cardinals-prospects-derek-shores-best-of-the-rest/

    #41168
    PadsFS
    Participant

    14Ny- There is a dearth of talent and one that I hoped would’ve been made up for with the 2016 int’l signings, but only Machado and Oviedo stand out for now. They also used the first 5 picks from 2017 all on hitters.

    I really hope that Kilichowski and Ronnie Williams will work out what went wrong for them last year. They were two I was counting. They should be repeating levels in 2018. Also Nicacio, Oviedo, Oxnevad, and Seijas should be good. If Seijas starts out hot, I think he will get substantial prospect traction. Seijas and Oviedo look like they should both move slow through the organization, which will help keep the upper levels from the crowding that exists now. Even if all goes well with these two, we probably won’t be dealing any young pitching (Alcantara, Gallen, Castano) in the next few years.

    I could see Oviedo/Seijas going ’18 Peoria, ’19 Palm Beach, ’20 Springfield/Memphis, ’21 Memphis/STL, ’22 STL. That puts their debut in 2021 at a still young age of 22/23.

    #41170
    CariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    Killichowski was injured but I have almost zero hope for Williams.

    #41210
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I highlight 6 Latin American prospects who just missed our top 50 plus one deep sleeper for 2018. ($)

    https://thecardinalnation.com/2018-cardinals-prospects-brian-waltons-best-of-the-rest/

    #41259
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Over half of The Cardinal Nation’s annual All-Prospect Team is new for 2018, but captain Carson Kelly made his record sixth team. Our top 50 prospects analyzed by position and age. (free article)

    https://thecardinalnation.com/2018-tcn-st-louis-cardinals-all-prospect-team/

    #41287
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    The timing and mix of the top prospect pipeline to St. Louis indicates a surprising trend away from youth. Sourcing, positions and ages of the Cardinals top 50 prospects are compared to prior years. ($)

    https://thecardinalnation.com/2018-cardinals-top-prospects-behind-the-numbers/

    #41338
    David Greenwald
    Participant

    A point to make here: “Even if the Cards had not lost all three of their early selections in 2017 and assuming they are all prospects, the best total could have been seven, an average take at best. Further, the total of four from the 2017 draft is not likely to improve much, if at all, in the future.”

    That’s not a completely fair analysis. Part of the strategy in the past has been to draft “safe” guys, bank the money, and then take more risky guys later rounds. So losing your top three picks not only loses those picks, but also the leverage to take risks. So they had to play it very safe and vanilla in the last draft.

    #41341
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    David, my primary point in the section you quote is that we should not assume more top prospects will emerge from the 2017 draft class later. The prior data indicates that the first year count is about all there will be. (That doesn’t mean the names might not change, but the total hasn’t grown much, if at all in subsequent years.)

    Adding your point of less risk-taking would suggest it is even less likely that the 2017 draft will eventually yield more than four top 50 prospects. If so, I get that logic.

    P.S. Thanks for commenting. There hasn’t been much chatter on these recent analysis articles. Five more to go!

    #41371
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    With the full benefit of hindsight, we look back one year later at 12 of our best and worst predictions of St. Louis Cardinals’ minor league prospects for 2017. ($)

    https://thecardinalnation.com/2018-top-cardinals-prospects-2017-picks-and-pans/

    #41381
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    BW, Regarding “Behind the numbers” there’s a lot of data to absorb, nice job.

    #41396
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Thanks. You are right. It is a lot to absorb. Maybe I should think about breaking it up next year. I just keep coming up with new ideas. In fact, I just wrote an entirely new article that will run at the end – on Friday. Its subject is looking at the top 50 in tiers, rather than just absolute ranking.

    #41409
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Breaking down our 2018 St. Louis Cardinals top 50 prospects by predominant level of play in 2017 compared to prior years. The shift to a top-heavy, position player-dominated system is analyzed. ($)

    https://thecardinalnation.com/2018-st-louis-cardinals-top-prospects-by-level/

    #41415
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Realistically, Memphis has 4 prospects and Springfield 5. If Reyes and Flaherty are able to find work in the rotation and remain there for 4-5 years, we would be able to wait for the next wave (Hudson-Gomber-Helsley) and hope we get at least 1 to become a stalwart starter. The loss of Alcantara and Gallen take them off the board. There’s another smaller wave of potential starters two years following, and then the bottom falls out.

    It’s going to be vital for Reyes and Flaherty to be successful. This will be a major factor in the Cards being able to contend down the road since acquiring top notch pitchers hasn’t been a strong suit for the organization. Picking up the Leakes and Nikolases to fill out the starting five won’t provide what a contending team should have there. (I should wait on Nikolas, but you get the picture)

    A rotation of Reyes-Martinez-Flaherty-Wacha-Weaver, with Hudson ready to step up, doesn’t sound too shabby. That’s what I foresee for ’19, and it coincides with Ozuna’s second year and maybe Kelly settling in as our catcher. I don’t see any INFers or OFers in the organization of all-star capabilities in the next few years. We’ll need to grab one from the list of FAs next off-season.

    As it stands now, I can only see a third year of non-October ball, and feel that that’s what the FO sees also. This isn’t a contending team unless a whole bunch of guys have career seasons. Just keeping it real.

    Note to self: push harder for Lynn to be resigned for insurance. IMO, he still has several good or great years left on his arm.

    #41416
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    These are the prospects that received a grade of 5.5 or better (an average MLB starter or better to an elite talent) at this juncture in time. See grading system on the 50days/50nights thread.

    5.5 OF-Bader C-Knizner OF-Arozarena 2B-Schrock OF-Carlson RP-Seijas SS-Sosa CF-Machado
    6.0 C-Kelly OF-O’Neill SS-Munoz RP-Fernandez RP-Oviedo
    6.5 RP-Hudson RP-Hicks
    7.0 RP-Flaherty OF-JAGarcia SS-Perez
    8.0 RP-Reyes

    7-RPs 5-OFers 2-Cs 3-SSs 1-CFer 1-2B This gives a better understanding of what the organization is prepared to send to the big team in the next few years as probable starters.

    #41417
    CariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    So pretty much a complete team if Carlson moves to first and Munoz to 3rd. Just short a few relief pitchers.

    Everyone of the “OF” guys played CF last year – some the majority of the time and some at the ML level. And that doesn’t include Mercado whom many would argue will be a ML regular as well.

    #41450
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Promotions to the majors, trades, Rule 5, free agency and decline in performance all contributed to St. Louis Cardinals prospects coming off The Cardinal Nation’s 2017 top 50 in 2018. ($)

    https://thecardinalnation.com/2018-st-louis-cardinals-top-prospects-the-departed/

    #41498
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    The other day, Pads posted a partial look at my scouting grades for the top 50 prospects. Now up for members is my annual full breakdown of this info – as well as a different spin on ranking the top 50, by potential. ($)

    https://thecardinalnation.com/2018-cardinals-top-50-prospects-on-potential-only/

    #41564
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    In the 61st and final article of our annual series, I break down The Cardinal Nation top 50 prospect list into logical tiers based on their individual scores, an analysis new for 2018. ($)

    https://thecardinalnation.com/tcn-st-louis-cardinals-2018-top-50-prospect-tiers/

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